7 takeaways from NHL's first quarter: From goal trends to breakouts

Hard to believe that five weeks have passed and we’ve eclipsed the quarter mark of the NHL season.

In this shortened year, we don’t have as much time to let things settle and start forming opinions on players and teams. GMs, too, have to figure out their plans in a much shorter window, and in a situation that won’t make doing business easy.

So with the first quarter behind us, here are a look at a few takeaways from what we’ve seen so far, from goal trends, to trade candidates, breakout players and more.

[snippet id=4167285]

Get used to the idea of points percentage, not points, deciding playoff seeding

It’s a crazy year, right? The season is just 56 games long so games are packed in, and because of the divisional schedule the only teams that will play any games outside of those loops are the four playoff semifinalists.

Depending on how things go in the coming months, the final standings could look stranger than ever, too. Since some teams have had to pause their seasons due to COVID-19 protocols, the NHL has had to postpone and reschedule a number of games already. Just this week a massively long list of rescheduled games was tweeted out by the league (We have a full tracker of every change here.)

Schedules are already tightened. New Jersey, for example, has 47 games scheduled over the next 82 days after they had to shutdown for two weeks. So what happens if the league simply runs out of calendar space to add more rescheduled games?

We’re not there yet. The regular season was scheduled to end on May 8 and playoffs to begin May 11, but Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston had previously reported that the league could delay both those dates an extra week if it had to use the time to finish the regular season. We’ve already seen two games (Stars-Lightning, Flyers-Devils) rescheduled for May 10, but so far those are the only ones to go past the original end-of-season date. There is still some wiggle room.

But what if more games have to be postponed and rescheduled and those “buffer” dates get used up? We could be in a situation where not every team gets to 56 games, and some postponed games without playoff implications may just never get played.

“I think you want to get everybody as close to 56 as possible but, say for example, Colorado is in the playoffs and San Jose isn’t and they have a game they have to make up. Do you really have to make it up?” asked Elliotte Friedman this week.

[radioclip id=5066757]

All that could lead to an interesting finish to the season. If there is a division that doesn’t need to use that extra week, would their playoffs start early? And, if not every team gets to 56 games, points percentage would decide how things are ordered.

We’re not there yet and hopefully never get there, but this should be in the back of your mind now.

Players who are breaking out…

Relatively small sample sizes be damned, it’s time to make some declarations on a few players we’ve deemed as “breaking out.”

Maxime Comtois, Anaheim: There isn’t much scoring going on in Anaheim these days, but Comtois is at least a nice story to hang the hat on. He leads the Ducks with seven goals and nine points in 16 games – he’s scored 29 per cent of Anaheim’s goals. His ice time is beginning to creep up, too, and when Comtois is out there at 5-on-5, Anaheim is outscoring its opponents 9-5, the best goals for percentage on the team – not bad on a team that’s minus-10. His shooting percentage might drop a tick from 25, but his opportunity is increasing and the Ducks need one of their younger players to have this type of arrival.

Jordan Kyrou, St. Louis: It was only a matter of time. Kyrou had been tracking this way since a 94-point OHL season turned into a 109-point OHL season turned into a point-per-game AHL player. Now, at 22, he has 14 points in 16 games, has easily carved out a top-six role in Vladimir Tarasenko’s absence and barely any of his production has been the result of power-play time – Kyrous sits eighth in the league with 13 even strength points, tied with Nicklas Backstrom.

Conor Garland, Arizona: Depending on how you measure these things, Garland has maybe already broken out. After all, he scored 22 goals a season ago. But I’m including him on this list because he might have yet another step in him. Garland has six goals and 14 points in 15 games to lead the Coyotes and he’s been consistent in his production, not going longer than two games without a point yet.

Carter Verhaeghe, Florida: Sure, Verhaeghe is probably benefitting from having some decent linemates in Florida’s top six, but that doesn’t explain everything about his hot start. In his first NHL season last year with Tampa Bay, Verhaeghe scored nine times in 52 games, playing limited minutes. But his goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was fifth on the team, behind only Tampa’s best offensive players. Now, with many more minutes coming his way, Verhaeghe’s counting numbers are ticking up. He likely won’t continue at a 40-goal pace, but he should be able to keep most of this production going and have a fine breakout at 25 years old.

Kevin Lankinen, Chicago: What on earth is going on in Chicago? They’re half decent! And undrafted 25-year-old goalie Lankinen a big reason for that. One of the worst defensive outfits last year, it hasn’t been much better for the ‘Hawks in 2021. They allow the most shots against per game, fifth-most scoring chances per game and yet Chicago has a plus-1 team goal differential. Lankinen is pulling a Connor Hellebuyck here, near the league lead in save percentage (.931), goals-against average (2.29) and wins (7) behind one of the leakier defences out there. Goalies are voodoo, so we’ll see how this plays out in the long run, but this is a heck of a start. (Honourable mention in Chicago to another undrafted rookie, Pius Suter.)

Transactions are through the roof

CapFriendly is every hockey writer’s best friend and they’ve been working in overdrive this season. As teams throughout the league over-manufacture incremental bits of salary cap space by moving contracts to the taxi squad and back (to keep as much flexibility, especially around the trade deadline, as possible) the sheer amount of transactions this year will surely set a record.

The weird trade market and candidates to go

Speaking of transactions, while trading is more difficult this season, especially between American and Canadian teams, we should note that seven trades were made through the first five weeks of 2019-20 and through the first five weeks of this season there have been six trades.

What that means for the trade deadline, we’ll see. Teams may have to, at least, make decisions on buying, selling and to what degree of either a little bit earlier than usual, especially if a partner on the other side of the border is eager. With the trade deadline set for April 12, more moves could come before then because, if a two-week quarantine is still mandatory after arriving in Canada, a deadline day acquisition would only be able to join his new team for roughly two weeks at the end of the season.

That’s just not enough time.

No matter what the dynamics of the deadline end up being, the fact is trades between two teams on the same side of the border should be able to go ahead as usual. Here is where the all-Canadian division could be at a disadvantage, since any of those types of deals would have to be made with direct competitors. At least American teams have more options.

As teams begin to settle, roles become hardened and the quarter-mark passes, we’re beginning to get an idea of whose name could be heard often around trade speculation.

Sam Bennett, Calgary: He’s stated a desire to move on, but this is tricky. He’s a third-line grinder who doesn’t put up much in the way of regular-season numbers so it’s hard to see him bringing Calgary a notable return. At the same time, he’s been a valuable playoff performer for them, and that’s all that matters to Calgary this season. He’s also the kind of player the Flames would happily leave unprotected to the Seattle expansion draft.

Mikael Granlund, Nashville: Truthfully, a number of Predators players could be listed here. What a disaster. Seventh in the Central in points and points percentage with a minus-16 goal differential, the Preds may have to be unplanned sellers. Whether they go big with that in-season or wait for the off-season to blow it up, we’ll see. Speaking to The Athletic earlier this month, David Poile said: “I know I held on to the belief that we were closer with the (2017-18) team and hardly made any changes because of that belief. But with two years of a little bit of a downward trend with approximately the same team, I changed coaches, and we’ve now changed a significant amount of players. The team is clearly going in a different direction, so we’re just going to have to see how it plays out.”

Travis Dermott, Toronto: If the Leafs are seeking another forward to perhaps play in the top-six, the best, moveable asset they have to get that might be Dermott. He’s not playing a ton of minutes and has a contract that expires this summer which will be difficult to extend with the cap constraints. The thing is depth is so important, maybe more so this season, and especially on the blue line. It can evaporate in a second, and it may turn out the Leafs need Dermott more than another forward.

Adam Gaudette, Vancouver: Along with Jake Virtanen, these are the two players most likely to go if the Canucks stay stuck in the mud and just need a shakeup.

Taylor Hall, Buffalo: I hate to say it because I really wanted this to work out, but as the Sabres dropped three in a row to move to the bottom of their division, it’s time to start wondering about Hall and his one-year deal. He wants to play in the playoffs – which made Buffalo an odd choice for a UFA – and he might yet get it. If the Sabres aren’t in it, they can’t go beyond the deadline and not get anything for Hall ahead of him becoming a free agent again. It’s too early for this talk to have picked up yet, but if things don’t turn around fast this is headed towards a trade.

[relatedlinks]

Laine-Tortorella will be an interesting dynamic to watch play out

When the Columbus-Winnipeg blockbuster trade was made, it was supposed to settle a few uneasy situations, right?

Pierre-Luc Dubois wanted out of Columbus and got his wish, as did Patrik Laine in his desire to eventually leave Winnipeg. Jack Roslovic didn’t have a contract with the Jets and there was no easy way to see how he’d fit there, in a desired top-six role, so moving him to his hometown of Columbus was a natural fit.

Roslovic, funny enough, has been the most successful of the bunch so far with four goals and 10 points in 10 games. Dubois has been injured. Laine has been interesting.

In just his fourth game with the team, Laine was given a lesson in how things are done in Columbus when John Tortorella benched him for a period and a half after Laine “verbally disrespected” a member of the staff on the bench. A big deal was made out of that but, we should note, Laine has led all Columbus forwards in ice time in two of the three games since the benching and is on a three-game point streak.

“It kind of ran wild after it all went down when Patty didn’t play at all in the third period,” Tortorella told Bob McElligott of Blue Jackets radio network. “It went crazy. We’ve had the conversation as a team, we’ve had the conversation with Patty in front of the team, all the things that come with it and it’s really turned into a nice process of a new guy understanding how we expect things.

“Also listening to him. I learned from Patty also in his thoughts to me after this happened. That’s an important part. Early on in my career I didn’t have much time to listen. I need to listen to the athletes. We can ask them to do this that and the other thing – this is a 22-year-old kid. We need to listen to them also. I learned from him in this process. No one wants to get all the media attention it got – I didn’t like what they were saying about him at all, about him being a lazy player or he didn’t play hard enough – that’s not the reason you’re benching people. There are so many things that happened.

“We went through a process together and I think we’re all going to be better.”

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag with how Laine has fit in. He’s scored four goals and six points in seven games so the offence is there, and he even had his first NHL fight – something he nearly had in his one game with Winnipeg this season. So he looks as engaged as you want, and maybe even more so. The Blue Jackets have also been outshot and outscored with Laine on the ice at 5-on-5, though, so it’s not been perfect.

A major factor in determining who wins this trade in the long run might just depend on which guy re-signs with the team that acquired him. If Dubois stays in Winnipeg and Laine leaves Columbus, the Jets likely come out on top, and vice-versa – though Roslovic is a nice chip for Columbus, too.

Laine will be an RFA with arbitration rights this summer and only two years away from being UFA eligible. Signing him to a long-term extension would give great peace of mind to an organization that has seen a handful of stars choose to leave in recent years. Part of his frustration in Winnipeg was a lack of top-line minutes so where this relationship goes next is one of the top on-ice storylines with off-ice implications.

Goal trends

If you only watched North Division games (and let’s be honest, that’s most of Canada these days) you might think the NHL is trending towards a 1980s-esque season in terms of offence.

Not exactly so.

During 2018-19 I wrote an early-season analysis of goal trends because offence was up. It was very early, but teams were averaging 3.2 goals per game in the first stretch of the season. We noted that defences were bound to clamp down as the months went on – historically that’s what happens – and so goals were going to fall down again eventually.

But we also noted that, because power-play conversion rates were up so high and save percentages were dropping, the buffer might be solid enough to make 2018-19 the first season where teams averaged 3.00 goals per game or more since 1993-94 – just before the Dead Puck Era kicked into high gear.

It didn’t quite happen. It nearly did. Each of the past two seasons have finished with an average of 2.98 goals per game, the highest rates of the salary-cap era.

Average shots per game have been over 31 three years in a row for the first time since the ’70s, league-average save percentage has been dropping since 2015-16 and power-play success rates are better than they’ve been since the 1980s.

So what are we seeing this season compared to the two previous? With a lot of help from the incredible team at Sportsnet Stats, here’s a look:

*This season captures a smaller number of games

You might be surprised to learn that, league wide, goals are actually trending down in 2021.

As you see, power-play opportunities are up this season, and success rates along with it. Whether or not goal averages recover instead of decline might depend on how whistle-happy the refs are over the next three quarters.

But, again, goals historically come down as the season goes on and defences get tighter. This season is starting with a lower goal average than last year finished and shot rates are lower than they’ve been in five years.

What’s interesting is how different these numbers are by division. This is why, if all you watch is the North Division, you might be surprised at the league-wide goal trend. Again, from SN Stats:

Is it no longer “too early” to have a read on the Florida Panthers?

Count me among those skeptical of Florida’s hot start.

After their season was delayed they didn’t lose their first game in regulation until Feb. 7 (their ninth game), but they also weren’t playing the best in their division. All of those early games came against Columbus, Chicago, Nashville and Detroit, as the real tests in Tampa Bay, Carolina and Dallas were to come.

Well, now the Panthers may be for real.

Within the past week, Florida took two of three from Tampa and then fought back from a 2-0 deficit to beat the Hurricanes. Florida is now 10-2-2 and first place in the Central Division by both points percentage and actual points.

They’ve cut down enormously on their high-danger chances against – they were seventh-worst in that stat last season and are currently third-best by that measure. Carter Verhaeghe has been a great story, Jonathan Huberdeau is making plays like this…

Early contender for assist of the year? #NHLonSN #ItsOn pic.twitter.com/7nleeV58Rq

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 18, 2021

…and Chris Driedger, who makes $9.15 million less than Sergei Bobrovsky, has been the better performer and earned the last two wins against Tampa and Carolina.

Next week will bring another test with games against Dallas and Carolina, but it’s getting harder to turn away from the idea that, in this strange season, the Florida Panthers could be that surprise team that turns out better than anyone believed.