A collection of thoughts and predictions as NHL signing season kicks off

The Florida Panthers beat the clock to get Sam Reinhart signed to a maximum-term eight-year extension on Sunday night worth $8.625 million, lower than the $9.5 million I had mentioned last week. Once midnight hit, seven seasons became the limit.

Tough to leave the Stanley Cup, Florida weather and the Elbo Room, though. 

Other things to keep an eye on for Canada Day free-agent frenzy:

• Tampa’s got Jake Guentzel signed to a seven-year deal, official at a $9 million AAV.

• Jonathan Marchessault, the 2023 Conn Smythe Trophy winner and “King of the Misfits,” is headed to free agency after he and the Golden Knights were unable reach an agreement. There’s a lot of interest, too early to handicap late Sunday. 

• As I left the draft, Nashville was No. 1 on my Steven Stamkos list, but Marchessault’s departure vexes me. I am totally vexed, as Commodus said in Gladiator. Vegas would not risk Marchessault walking without backup. Guentzel is signed. Reinhart is signed. Barring a trade I haven’t sniffed out, Stamkos is the true big-fish replacement. It is the Golden Knights’ modus operandi to chase this. But I still believe the Predators want him and the Red Wings will be given the opportunity to pitch if they so desire. Stamkos’s pedigree is such that there will be surprise suitors, and if I had to pick a wild option, it would be Carolina. The Hurricanes always have a plan, but they really hoped to keep Guentzel. Beware the jilted lover on the rebound.

• Nashville is close to extending defenceman Alexandre Carrier. 

• Calgary desired a one-year extension with Oliver Kylington, but the player is seeking a second year — likely in the mold of Toronto’s new two-year, $3M AAV extension with Timothy Liljegren, a very fair comparable. 

It’s a tough one, because his inspiring comeback and the way the Flames supported the defenceman through mental health challenges should mean a long and healthy marriage. Unfortunately, business gets in the way. 

• Here are some educated guesses on what we could see Monday. Don’t take them as gospel, the rumour mill drank a case of Red Bull on the weekend.

Viktor Arvidsson: Heard Edmonton was going to try, but lots of interest.

Anthony Beauvillier: Pittsburgh.

Laurent Brossoit or Anthony Stolarz: Toronto.

William Carrier: Dallas.

Ian Cole: Utah.

Jake DeBrusk: I picked Seattle from the start, have to stick with it.

Brenden Dillon: New Jersey.

Matt Duchene: Dallas.

Joel Edmundson: Los Angeles or Ottawa.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: Toronto was chasing hard.

Warren Foegele: Los Angeles.

Elias Lindholm: Boston.

Jordan Martinook: Chicago.

Sean Monahan: Columbus or Winnipeg.

Brandon Montour: I thought Utah, but now I'm not as certain. A lot of teams like his fire. Seattle is looking for more offence and is believed to be in the mix.

Brett Pesce: New Jersey.

Matt Roy: Washington.

Jeff Skinner: Seattle, but a lot of options.

Brady Skjei: Nashville.

Kevin Stenlund: Utah.

Chandler Stephenson: Nashville most likely, if not, Seattle or St. Louis.

Chris Tanev: Toronto (around six years at $4.5M AAV).

Teuvo Teravainen: Rangers or Chicago.

Tyler Toffoli: I thought Los Angeles or Rangers, but a few sources think San Jose snares him to entice Macklin Celebrini.

Yakov Trenin: Minnesota.

Sean Walker: If Florida’s defence is decimated by losing Ekman-Larsson and Montour, I could see them making a hard pitch.

Nikita Zadorov: Boston.

Tyler Bertuzzi: Chicago.

Sam Carrick: Rangers.

Obviously, there are many others.

Extensions

• Carolina and Jaccob Slavin have an eight-year, $6.5M-ish AAV extension completed. 

• I expect Tampa to give Victor Hedman his “own day,” an announcement unencumbered by a tsunami of other signings. Maybe Tuesday or Wednesday. Probably four years.

• I do not expect to see a Sidney Crosby extension on July 1. Doesn’t mean there’s any reason for mass panic, but no one sees the need to rush anything. 

Off-the-radar

• Jack Dugan was taken 142nd in the 2017 draft, a talented player eventually labelled with the devastating “doesn’t work at it” attitude. Realizing that was destroying any opportunity to play in the NHL — he has yet to make his debut — he signed with the ECHL Fort Wayne Komets. Dugan played very well, with 20 goals, 80 points and 169 penalty minutes. 

More importantly, the reviews about his attitude were much better. He’s 26, and wants to work his way back up. 

Finally...

• There was a big change behind the scenes in Pittsburgh. 

According to several sources, staff were notified Friday that David Beeston, co-head of Fenway Sports Management and a Penguins' alternate governor, is stepping down. Apparently, he’s joining the private equity firm Clearlake Capital. (Clearlake is incredibly influential, it bought a majority stake in Chelsea FC in 2022.)

Beeston, who did not respond to requests for comment, played a major role in Fenway’s Penguins purchase and in recruiting current President of Hockey Operations and GM Kyle Dubas.