A way-too-early examination of Mitch Marner's next contract in Toronto

Let's talk Mitchell Marner. 

Let's talk money.

Because when it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs and its superstars and its cap-obsessed fan base, there is no such thing as financial relief.

OK, so Auston Matthews signed for four more seasons at $13.25 million, and William Nylander is requesting a raise to roughly $10 million on his next contract... what does that mean for Marner?

Yes. Absolutely. Feel free to roll your eyes and click elsewhere.

The 26-year-old Marner is locked under contract with his childhood team through the 2024-25 campaign. Marner's first crack at unrestricted free agency sits 22 months away, and the all-star winger's full no-movement clause assures he'll get two more cracks at lifting the Stanley Cup in his hometown, barring some unforeseen and unlikely change of heart.

And it is important to note that the idea of moving on from Marner in the wake of May's underwhelming second-round playoff series defeat to the Florida Panthers was restricted to armchair GMs and analysts.

We're not sounding panic alarms here. (And we vow to limit Marner contract chatter to a minimum in-season.)

After a grand total of one playoff series victory over seven postseasons, Marner passionately reasserted his desire to keep the band intact. He'll express his love for the sweater, and the city at every turn. And new general manager Brad Treliving immediately and consistently has extolled the virtues of his core's talent. 

Marner's no-move snapped in place on July 1 — mere days after he attended the NHL Awards ceremony as a first-time Selke finalist — without so much as a legitimate whisper of trade rumour.

Though Treliving's primary focus was taking care of Matthews, with sorting out his coaching staff and getting clarity on Nylander's future a close second, the new exec in town reached out to Marner within "a day or so" (Marner's estimation) after his hiring.

“Something that we’ve talked about a lot is just how Brad came in and defended us all, really, and our team,” Marner said in July.

“It meant a lot to all of us to come in and do that. It's not just four guys on our team. It's a full team effort every single night. That's really what we know. I mean, that’s not the narrative a lot of times, but we know we all gotta be better. And that's why we're excited to get the season going.”

While there certainly should be no near concern over Marner wanting out of town or Toronto wishing to move on from a player whose legacy could well be the greatest Maple Leafs winger of all time, it is worth some early consideration of how his next deal could slot into the roster's salary structure now that Matthews' number is secure.

For it is no secret that the $10.9-million AAV Marner negotiated with Kyle Dubas as a restricted free agent heading into the 2019-20 season was, in part, informed by the $11.6-million cap hit Matthews had inked prior.

In addition to Matthews' new deal, a couple of compelling factors could affect the negotiation landscape when Treliving and Marner drill into business next summer, with the player eligible to ink an extension as early as July 1.

For one, the NHL's salary cap should be well on its long-deferred incline. Five per cent increases (an educated guess) could place the ceiling over $92 million by the time Marner's third contract takes effect.

Project the 13.38 per cent salary share Marner secured in 2029-20 to 2025-26 and you're looking at an AAV around $12.32 million. 

You're also looking at a more mature and accomplished player.

Thing is, the Leafs will be buying exclusively UFA years (which are typically more expensive) next time around, and Marner's sparkling regular-season résumé has made him one of the most valuable talents in hockey.

With his career-high 99-point, 104-takeaway showing in 2022-23, Marner — not Matthews — proved Toronto's most valuable player over the past 82-game sample, vaulting him to third in Selke voting and 13th on Hart ballots (also career bests). Marner's minutes played, special-teams work, and increased threat as a scorer (back-to-back 30-goal campaigns with a shooting percentage above 15) show a versatile superstar in his prime. 

In their seven seasons as teammates and friends, Marner has out-produced Matthews in four of them and holds a slight 554-542 edge in their career points race. In seven postseasons (50 games), Marner has 47 points to Matthews' 44.

Of course, Matthews patrols the more important position on the ice and pots more goals. But an argument for Marner — an elite line driver — to again fall into his centreman's tax bracket is legitimate.

Further, the cap ceiling will be higher when Marner hits the bargaining table, Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl (also a 2025 UFA) may decide to jack the NHL's AAV title from Matthews, and — perhaps most critically — John Tavares's $11 million cap hit will come off the books the same summer Marner's raise takes effect. (Tavares could well re-sign in Toronto but only at a significant reduction in pay.)

That'll be a massive relief for Treliving's cap planning, and a potential bargaining chip for Marner's agent, Darren Ferris.

Something else to consider when thinking about Marner's post-2025 future in Toronto is his age.

Marner will be 28 if/when he reaches UFA status. (Matthews was set to be 26.) Opting for a short-term deal the way Matthews did makes less sense for the player, who is likely to push toward eight years of security.

There are, of course, plenty of unknowns at work here: How does Marner and Toronto's playoff success (or lack of it) in 2024 affect Treliving's plans and his bet on talent-heavy forwards? What happens with Nylander? Who else signs? Which opposing players appear to be heading to market?

And — perhaps most important — how does Marner himself feel about the situation? Will the occasional criticism surrounding his current contract and the security of $69 million in career earnings (plus endorsements) cause him to reconsider a push for max dollars? 

Is it safe to assume Matthews' $13.25 million is the Maple Leafs' new internal ceiling? Or could an increased term for Marner equate to a higher AAV?

The landscape is complicated and surely to shift as the hockey games pile up toward July 1.

Still, one thing is clear: Much like Matthews before him, a healthy Marner will dominate off-ice debate next summer and hold the hammer when it comes time to talk money for real.