Analyzing a change in Nick Robertson that will make him a permanent NHLer

Although it wasn’t always a popular opinion, I was dug in pretty hard in the past on the idea that Nick Robertson just didn’t look NHL ready. He always had the same special shot, nose for the net and general ability to put away chances, but my concerns were twofold.

The biggest was that he didn’t seem able to create his own looks. If a play unfolded in a way that a linemate got the puck and Robertson got open and could get his shot off, it might be dangerous, but that’s the case for a lot of NHLers.

The other was that he seemed so intent on scoring that he forgot the rest of the game. He isn’t naturally a big physical guy, but combined with a one-way focus, he let a lot slide the wrong way. The risk/reward didn’t work for what the Leafs needed.

The second part -- defence and the non-puck side of the game -- well, it remains to be seen if he’ll get that all cleaned up. As with many rookies, it likely won’t get fully figured out in their first season, and mistakes will come. But the first part? The “not being able to create his own shot,” thing? That’s no more, and the fact Robertson is able to do that now -- combined with his finishing ability -- will mean that the team will have patience with him while he figures out the other stuff. He’ll dress enough and score enough to earn himself the rope to learn.

This isn’t knee-jerk reactionary commentary coming from his two-goal night that included an overtime winner. It was evident throughout his game Thursday night, not just on the goals, and present throughout a preseason where he was one of the Leafs' best forwards.

So the “how” Nick Robertson has been able to create chances for himself -- what is it exactly?

It’s a dynamic pop in his stride that allows him to get separation that he didn’t have last season, whether the absence of that was due to age and natural development curves or injury.

The key isn’t looking at Robertson's goals and finding where that occurred, but rather in the moments where his improved stride makes him a more valuable player and linemate.

Let’s look at a few examples and see how this improved skating style is going to keep him with the Maple Leafs this season.

First clip: A clean breakout with possession. I’ll be honest: I didn’t love Robertson being out there with 1:30 on the clock in a tied game from the Leafs perspective. He’s still a high risk/reward player, and I figured they’ve punted away enough free points already by not just playing for OT in the dying moments against Montreal and Arizona (then taking their chances with their superior skill there). But in this clip, it’s easy to see why they figured it’s worth the chance:

The sharp cuts and directional changes while taking strides are impressive, but there’s a stride just past the top of the circles where you can see he gets long, and uses the full extent of his toe flexion to get up to the next gear. In the past, his strides have looked shorter and choppier than this:

I don’t necessarily think he’s straightaway fast compared to the NHL’s collection of skilled wingers, but I do think he’s got himself up to slightly above average among middle-six wingers in top speed, with one major difference: the kid works really, really hard. You can see how his improved length and work ethic allows him to close a sizeable gap here, and make an easy retrieval hard for the Dallas defender:

Even after stopping in that clip above, when he has to get going again, he both wants to get going quickly, and is able to. He stays on top like a pest. I mentioned his top speed may be “slightly above average” among the NHL’s skilled wingers, but I’d definitely say he’s quicker than most, a ball of fast-twitch energy who constantly seems excited about whatever the next task is on the list. You can see that again here, where he goes from a full stop to being able to get on top of a D-man quickly with a burst behind the net:

This is more of what I wanted to highlight as what’s now a real strength of his – quickness and an ability to separate.

Here it’s a simple stride or two, but it puts Robertson in a spot where he can get off a shot. Hey might have gotten this shot last season too, but this year it’s a shot without pressure:

Again, how he works after the shot is quick and energetic. On his first goal, he’s strong enough to take contact from Jamie Benn, but it’s the strides he takes to create separation that do the same thing they did on the shot above: he gets not just a shot, but one without pressure.

This one doesn’t showcase the skating exactly, but you can see that going from a stop to full speed so capably allows him to get comfortable on the rush, slow down, and get himself in a dangerous spot.

My expectation for Nick Robertson this season isn’t that he’s suddenly going to be a 40-goal guy who's good all the time for the Leafs. I think he’s still a fairly singularly focused player (offence) and, sometimes because of that, he will make some decisions that will make you go “ugh.”

I think the coach will get intermittently frustrated, and Robertson might even end up watching a few games this season. But I also think that his improved skating and work ethic and finishing ability will keep him in the lineup most nights (particularly on a team up against the cap that needs a cheap contributor). And if Robertson plays regularly, he can score 20 this season.

Regardless of how it shakes out exactly, I can’t see him spending any more time with the Marlies -- he’s clearly an NHLer. His development is a great one for the Leafs. He skates well and works hard and can sometimes straight-up beat a goalie where most shooters can’t. If the price for that is some defensive errors or turnovers, the team can live with it.

Toronto has a capital-p Player now in Nick Robertson, which for a team currently 24^th in goals-for-per-game (2.8), should be awfully exciting news.