Analyzing Kyle Dubas' recent trade deadlines and what it means for 2023

Last Friday, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas pulled off a massive, late-night blockbuster with the St. Louis Blues, bringing in Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari in exchange for a package of picks.

In doing so, Dubas not only declared the Maple Leafs a team he believes can make a real run at the Stanley Cup, but also reminded hockey fans everywhere — or, maybe everywhere but St. Louis — how fun and unexpected this time of year can be.

Emphasis on “unexpected.” Although Dubas had made it clear during a media availability earlier this month that his trade deadline priorities would be “up front and on D,” he also stressed his desire not to give up top prospects or this year’s first-round pick.

And a rental?

“I can't see that happening,” he said. As we know, a lot can change in a short amount of time — while his top prospects, including Matthew Knies, weren’t moved, the Maple Leafs’ 2023 first-round pick was included as part of the deal.

When we look back at his other dealings of deadlines past, this trade fits the mould. Although his penchant for targeting players with term has always been evident, Dubas’ willingness to now go after pending UFAs for three straight deadlines shows the urgency to win. Another interesting similarity? The acquisition of O’Reilly marks the third consecutive year Dubas traded for another team’s captain in a deadline move.

And here’s another trend: Dubas tends to create his own deadlines. Rather than make a big swing as the clock winds down on deadline day, the GM has tended to do his biggest deals in advance. In 2021 and 2022, in fact, Dubas’ biggest swings came one day before the deadline. This year, he made his big move exactly two weeks ahead of the deadline.

Does he have more in store? The Maple Leafs still need an upgrade on the blue line, especially with this week’s news that injured veteran Jake Muzzin has been confirmed to miss the remainder of this season (including playoffs).

With his Blues blockbuster now in the books, and still one week remaining before the deadline with plenty of speculation about whether or not he’s done, here’s a look back at what Dubas did in each of his past four deadlines at the helm of the Maple Leafs.

2019 deadline: Dubas’ hunt for term lands Muzzin with Maple Leafs

In his first trade deadline at the helm of the Maple Leafs, Dubas was quick to get his guy, completing a deal on Jan. 28 – nearly a full month ahead of the Feb. 25 deadline – to bring in defenceman Jake Muzzin.

To Toronto: Jake Muzzin

To L.A.: 2019 first-round pick, Carl Grundstrom, and the rights to unsigned prospect Sean Durzi

Muzzin checked off all the boxes for the Maple Leafs, who after three straight first-round exits were looking to get heavier ahead of what would hopefully be a longer run. He provided that muscle and more, making the Maple Leafs decidedly tougher to play against, and with one additional year of term on his contract at the time was not merely a rental.

Almost exactly one year later, Dubas extended Muzzin with a four-year deal worth $5.625 million annually. Had unfortunate injuries not held him out, Muzzin would once again be poised to play a big role in this year’s run.

2020 deadline: Another deal with Kings brings in a soon-to-be fan favourite

Once again, Dubas did his best work well before 2020’s deadline, establishing a reputation for acting early. And once again, he turned to the Kings for his top deadline needs.

In 2020, goaltending was atop his list and term was key in order to bring a sense of consistency and reliability at the backup position behind starter Frederik Andersen. And on Feb. 5, nearly three weeks before the Feb. 24 deadline, Dubas got his guy.

To Toronto: Jack Campbell, Kyle Clifford*

To L.A.: Trevor Moore, 2020 third-round pick, 2021 conditional third-round pick

*Kings retained half of Clifford’s $1.6-million cap hit.

Although Campbell was still largely unproven 10 years into his pro career, part of his instant appeal as the Maple Leafs’ new backup was the contract he brought with him. He’d signed a two-year extension with the Kings in September 2019, which meant he was under contract at an extremely reasonable $1.65-million AAV through 2021-22.

Not only did Campbell immediately bring a level of confidence to the Maple Leafs’ shaky backup situation, he blossomed into a fan favourite. He went from sharing the crease with Andersen in 2020-21 to taking over as the starter in 2021-22 after Andersen departed for Carolina. Campbell was ultimately the biggest winner of this deal, capitalizing on his success with the Maple Leafs to sign a five-year deal with Edmonton last summer.

Although Dubas dabbled in several small deals closer to that year’s deadline, one stands out that hindsight does not look kindly upon: the Mason Marchment-for-Denis Malgin trade. The one-for-one didn’t make a lot of waves at the time but is a bit painful today. Malgin was held off the scoresheet in eight games with the Maple Leafs down the stretch that season and didn’t appear in the playoffs while Marchment, who continued his quiet development in Florida before a breakout season with the Panthers in 2021-22, is now a key part of the Stars playing the exact kind of heavy hockey the Leafs could use on the wing.

2021 deadline: Dubas’ big swing on Foligno brings major hope … and despair

It’s hard to call Dubas’ dealings at the 2021 deadline a success considering how things ultimately panned out, but when news broke of Toronto’s acquisition of Nick Foligno, the mood was all excitement. One year earlier, the Maple Leafs had witnessed firsthand the kind of grit and production Foligno could bring to a playoff team’s top-six when he captained Columbus to a qualifying-round win over Toronto.

To Toronto: Nick Foligno*, Stefan Noesen

To Columbus: 2021 first-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick

To San Jose: 2021 fourth-round pick

*Columbus retained half of Foligno’s $5.5-million cap hit, and Toronto sent San Jose a pick to retain half of the remaining $2.275 million.

The Maple Leafs’ excitement wasn’t just about Foligno’s ability to add plenty of sandpaper and leadership to the top six but about Dubas’ ability to navigate a tight cap situation and still get the deal done. After two years of preaching the importance of term, Dubas’ decision to land a pure rental also spoke volumes about his team’s drive to finally go all-in to win, handing over a valuable first-round draft pick to do so.

Unfortunately for both the team and player, back luck struck early. After Foligno started strong with four points in his first four games in blue and white, a back injury got the best of him. All told, he was limited to just seven regular-season games and four playoff matchups against Montreal because of it, unable to prevent Toronto from its collapse against the Canadiens.

Dubas became quite familiar with Columbus management that spring – his acquisition of Foligno was actually his third transaction with Columbus in the month leading up to the deadline, starting off the relationship with a pair of minor deals and continuing his habit of returning to trusted trade partners as he’d done with the Kings.

2022 deadline: Mark Giordano becomes a Maple Leaf

Dubas made no secret of his shopping list last year, clearly stating his hopes to upgrade the blue line ahead of the stretch run and hopefully bring in some depth on the wing while he was at it. He set the stage for his deadline moves one month earlier on Feb. 19 with a cap-clearing deal that sent forward Nick Ritchie (and his full $2.5-million cap hit) to the desert along with a conditional 2025 second-round pick in exchange for Ilya Lyubushkin and Ryan Dzingel. Dzingel was immediately placed on waivers while Lyubushkin provided the Leafs with affordable depth in true rental fashion.

Then, just as he’d done one year earlier, Dubas made his big move on the eve of the trade deadline, bringing in Mark Giordano on March 20.

To Toronto: Mark Giordano*, Colin Blackwell

To Seattle: 2022 second-round pick (No. 58 overall; Niklas Kokko), 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick.

*Seattle retained 50 per cent of Giordano’s $6.75-million cap hit.

After clearing an additional $1.5 million in cap space by sending depth defender Travis Dermott to the Vancouver Canucks earlier on March 20, Dubas completed a deal with the Seattle Kraken to bring in Giordano. The trade saw the former Flames captain, who was plucked by the Kraken during their expansion draft and handed the "C," return home to his Toronto roots alongside depth forward Colin Blackwell in exchange for a trio of draft picks.

Both Giordano and Blackwell were pending UFAs at the time, but the union between the Maple Leafs and their new veteran rearguard turned out to be a great match – Giordano signed a two-year, $1.6-million extension last May.