Analyzing Matthew Knies and how he can be Maple Leafs' playoff X-Factor

Anyone who’s seen a cooking competition show knows the simultaneous satisfaction and stress of watching contestants race against the clock to transform a collection of ingredients into a praise-worthy creation.

The process is messy, entertaining, and leaves me (and I imagine those of you whose specialties are also pasta and anything that can swiftly be shoved in the oven) feeling sufficiently inadequate in an awe-inspiring kind of way.

How do they know how much of this and how much of that to use? 

How do they know when to incorporate this? 

How do they know how to incorporate that? 

While having access to the right ingredients is one component, the way contestants leverage those ingredients is another and usually dictates their success. 

To some extent, the same principle applies in hockey when it comes to player development, particularly at the highest levels. 

Every player who reaches the NHL is working with their own set of high-quality ingredients – AKA skills – and the challenge, especially early on in one’s professional career, lies in figuring out how to use those ingredients most effectively to produce a winning recipe. 

Maple Leafs rookie Matthew Knies is currently in the thick of this process.  

Despite an impressive introduction to the league a year ago in the playoffs, the 21-year-old has understandably struggled for stretches in his first full season after making the leap from college to the NHL. He’s contending with a different game – one involving substantially more size, speed, skill, and smarts – and a more demanding lifestyle that’s seen his workload double (he’s on pace to appear in 80 games this season after playing 77 over the previous two seasons combined with the University of Minnesota).

Plop all those factors into the context of playing in arguably the most pressure-packed market and, yeah, it would probably be more concerning if he wasn’t struggling. 

We’ve nonetheless seen clear flashes of the winger’s potential to become a stud in this league based on the unique blend of ingredients he possesses, including:

• Small-area skill you wouldn’t expect from a 6-foot-3, 217-pound frame

• Strength you wouldn’t expect from a 21-year-old playing against grown men

• A powerful stride capable of creating problems for the opposition

• An A+ ability to protect the puck and the agility to escape pressure with well-timed changes in direction

So yes, Knies has many of the raw ingredients, but he’s sometimes prone to falling into patterns of using them in ways that have a counterproductive effect.

With the playoffs looming and the potential to be an X factor once again, we’ll break down the two areas of his game in which these patterns are most prominent, specifically through the lens of how he can shift his results and heighten his impact.

WORK SMARTER, NOT HARDER

The first thing that jumps out when I watch Knies play is that he seems to tire quickly. The kid works his tail off and is still adapting to the pace of the NHL, but on many occasions, he’s expending more energy than he needs to because of poor movement decisions and tendencies.

Whether on the forecheck, backcheck, or defending in his own zone, he often directly chases the puck…and then promptly ends up chasing the play.

Chasing one play can lead to chasing multiple in succession, and as the fatigue compounds, so too do the physical and mental mistakes.

Below is an example of this domino effect in action.

The sequence begins with Knies, a left winger who should be playing right wing here based on where his linemate is already situated, following the puck to the left side of the ice. All three Leaf forwards end up within 20 feet of one another by the offensive blue line, resulting in an easy read for the opposition (with no far-side option, everyone knows where the puck is going) and a hard track back for Knies.

Upon catching up to the play, he opts to chase the puck to the left half-wall and, well out of position, is then forced to sprint all the way across the zone to the right point as the puck moves to the defenceman he should be fronting. Desperation kicks in, which leads to overskating his lane and further chasing.

The sequence culminates in a race to a loose puck where Knies, whose legs are probably burning after spending the better part of 25 seconds stopping and starting and hurrying, takes a penalty.

When No. 23 becomes overly puck-focused on the forecheck, he likewise pulls himself to poor spots and increases his workload.

In situations when he’s F1 or F2 – the first or second forechecker – he can fall into the habit of just putting his head down and giving chase instead of being cognizant of his linemates’ whereabouts and working in tandem with them. A lot of the time, an effective forecheck is predicated on forcing possession changes by collectively eliminating as many of the opposition’s options as possible with smart pressure via strategic routes more than ones aimed at directly emerging with the puck.

When Knies is in hunt mode and focused on the latter, it’s not uncommon to see him end up on the same side of the puck retriever as a teammate, cutting off options that are already being cut off, and rendering his speed and strength moot. These ineffective routes preserve ice elsewhere for the opposition to easily exit the zone and leave him behind. 

Here are a few examples (note Marner’s attempt to direct Knies with his stick in the first clip):

When Knies moves more intentionally (or works smarter) based on the support around him, he contributes to trapping opponents and creating stops on the forecheck more consistently, sparing him from working overtime. Here are a few examples for comparison:

The temptation to simply pursue the puck is one the rookie struggles to resist at times when operating as F3 – the high forechecker – as well. When he prioritizes his positioning by staying high and heading south rather than diving down for a “fingers crossed” swipe at the puck, he avoids playing catch-up (and potentially leaving his team vulnerable). 

Here are two pairs of clips to show this contrast in similar situations:

Finally, the issue of steering himself to the wrong side of the puck brings us to Knies’ backchecking routes.

We typically think the key to a successful backcheck is effort, but it’s effort plus efficiency. More often than not, cutting off a play requires getting above the player with possession, which means skating up and across to the puck. 

Knies regularly skates less “up” and more “across” – translation: at the puck versus alongside it – which sees him lose body position and once again fall behind, as illustrated in these clips:

The difference is subtle, but watch how the outcome is the opposite when his first few strides are more up than across:

To summarize this whole section, Knies is used to being able to directly chase the puck and come away with it frequently in any situation thanks to his aforementioned combination of speed and strength. He could outrace and outmuscle opponents in college with this movement pattern in a way he no longer can in the NHL. 

Forgoing the more immediate routes to the puck in favour of more calculated and patient ones when appropriate will allow him to better leverage these skills and slow the rate at which he empties his tank.

CREATE OPTIONS, NOT LIMITATIONS

From energy management to puck management we go. 

There are many times when Knies makes excellent plays to help facilitate breakouts, find a teammate with speed, or extend possessions in difficult areas. There are also many times when he has trouble clearing the zone, makes mediocre plays with better ones available, or turns possessions into 50/50 pucks at best.

His puck touch success rate is among the lowest on the Leafs, which is probably to be expected for a rookie, but it’s been trending in the wrong direction since December, per Sportlogiq.

After watching the majority of his touches this season, it seems to me that his inconsistency in this area is a reflection of his scanning details and how they’re limiting his options, thus impacting the way he deploys his skills. 

We can break these details down into three components.

1. When he’s scanning

Hockey plays develop in stages and the earlier a player scans the ice to identify an option or passing lane, the less likely he is to miss the window to leverage it. 

When Knies neglects to survey his surroundings before the puck arrives or is a split-second late to pick up his head to look for options with possession (which is different than looking up to read defensive pressure – more on that shortly), it’s like he’s operating on a delay. By the time he prepares the puck to attack or pass it, the opening or lane that existed is often no longer available, as the following clips demonstrate.

Watch how he’s able to take advantage of windows and make plays with fewer handles when he scans earlier:

2. Where he’s scanning

A player who scans early can still impose limitations on himself by confining his scanning to one direction. Knies tends to do so at times, particularly in the defensive zone on breakouts, where he’s predominantly focused on moving the puck north toward the opposition’s end.

By restricting the scope of information he collects, he handcuffs himself and frequently misses out on making the best possible play – the higher-probability and more controlled one in many cases – in a given situation. 

Here’s some video evidence:

When the winger expands his mindset and has his head on a swivel, he’s less likely to force plays or turn the puck over. He also gives himself the flexibility to use his skills more effectively.

3. What he’s scanning for

The extent to which scanning early and in multiple directions will translate to success is dependent on a player scanning for the right information. 

As referenced above, scanning for pressure is one piece of the puzzle and Knies excels at it, as evidenced by how well he times his movements to protect the puck and shake free from checks. Scanning for teammates is another piece of the puzzle we’ve touched on. The third and most advanced piece is scanning for space.

Sometimes Knies makes plays that clearly show his awareness and understanding of the latter, while other times he’ll do all this great work to win a battle or reach a loose puck first or escape a defender, only to send the puck back into traffic.

The more he prioritizes making plays to space, the more advantages he’ll create for his team.

BOILING IT ALL DOWN

While one could argue that the patterns we’ve discussed raise questions about Knies’ hockey sense, I see them more as a reflection of a young player who’s learning the NHL and whose eagerness to make a difference sometimes backfires. The winger has shown that he’s capable of anticipating plays and making the right reads, and again, has the tools to be a force. 

Adding layers to his game over time will be important, but if he can shift his approach both with and without the puck to use his skills a bit more strategically in the immediate future, he could very well be an essential ingredient in the winning recipe the Maple Leafs hope to produce this post-season.