The Toronto Maple Leafs look to even their series against the Montreal Canadiens tonight as the teams hit the ice for Game 2. Toronto will be doing so without its captain who suffered a devastating injury in Game 1 and is out indefinitely.
The good news is that John Tavares has been discharged from the hospital and is resting at home. The bad news is the loss of Tavares will no doubt be felt on many fronts.
First, there’s the leadership role he provides as captain in the dressing room and also the immense value he brings to the club on the ice. At times, Tavares’ all-world ability can be overshadowed on a team with plenty of superstar power. Auston Matthews won the goal-scoring title this season while Mitch Marner rode shotgun, finishing fourth in league scoring.
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Quietly, Tavares put together an impressive season finishing with 50 points in 56 games. Points aside, Tavares brings some unique and important on-ice qualities to the Maple Leafs’ game that can’t be replaced.
Only three players in the NHL generated scoring chances at a higher rate than Tavares this season and one of them was his teammate, Matthews. Tavares is one of the best in the league at creating shots from the net-front area, where half of all goals are scored. Whether at even strength or on the power play, Tavares’ blend of size and skill is difficult to contain.
Tavares ranks top-10 in deflections, rebound chances, puck battle wins, and cycle chances — all elements that speak to his ability to get the puck, protect it and generate chances in the offensive zone.
The Maple Leafs have other players who are strong in many of these areas but Tavares is a key player in their top six who plays their possession-heavy game as well as anyone.
Tavares is also a go-to player when it comes to taking important faceoffs in both the offensive and defensive zone.
At even strength, Tavares took 186 faceoffs in the offensive zone on his strong side (left circle) this season. That is more than any other Maple Leaf and his win percentage in that circle was also better than any other Maple Leaf — 52.7 per cent.
Jason Spezza and Riley Nash are the Leafs’ only right shot centres but they are bottom-six forwards. Tavares was often counted on often to win draws on his weak side and he was better in the right circle, winning 59.7 per cent of his faceoffs at even strength.
Tavares was also the Maple Leafs’ top option in the circle on the power play, taking 114 offensive zone faceoffs, 72 more than any other Leafs forward. Tavares was 59.8 per cent in the left circle and 55.6 per cent in the right circle.
Long story short, Tavares takes more important faceoffs than any other Maple Leaf and this is an area where he will be sorely missed. Faceoffs are one of those things that don’t really matter until they do. Winning a lot of faceoffs in a game has no meaningful correlation to whether that team will win the game or not, but when time is ticking down and there’s a must-win draw to be had, Tavares is a nice option to have.
You don’t need to look too far back to see an example of this. Earlier this month against the Canadiens, the Leafs were protecting a one-goal lead with just over one minute left in the game. Matthews was given the task of winning a defensive zone faceoff on his weak side against Phillip Danault. He lost the draw cleanly and Danault scored to tie the game seconds later.
Montreal went on to win in overtime.
A few nights later, in the same situation against the same team, head coach Sheldon Keefe went with Tavares for the all-important faceoff. While he didn’t win the draw, Tavares did recover a loose puck shortly after and successfully cleared the zone.
Finally, another key area that will be affected by the loss of Tavares is the match-up advantage the Maple Leafs enjoy by having a star player at centre on their second line.
The Canadiens look to get Danault’s line out against Matthews’ line as much as possible and that is what happened in Game 1. Despite not scoring, Matthews’ line dominated, outshooting the Canadiens 10-3 and 5-0 from the slot in that head-to-head match-up.
With so much focus on Toronto’s top line, Tavares can escape top forwards and defence pairs and that’s where the Maple Leafs are such a match-up nightmare for most teams. Tavares and William Nylander would be top-line players on a lot of other teams. With Tavares out, the Leafs’ second line becomes a little less of a concern.
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Tavares and Nylander’s most common linemates this season were Alex Galchenyuk and Alexander Kerfoot. Both line combinations posted an expected goals-for percentage north of 60 per cent. Tavares thrived against middle-six competition and now the likelihood of Toronto’s second line outperforming Montreal’s becomes less.
By no means does this mean the Maple Leafs are in trouble. Toronto made a point to acquire depth at the forward position in the event it finds itself in a situation like the one it is in now. Galchenyuk, Pierre Engvall, Adam Brooks, and Nick Robertson give Toronto plenty of options.
The Leafs still have plenty of high-end talent, so by no means are they now at a significant disadvantage with their captain on the sidelines. That said, there isn’t a player who will draw into the lineup that can replace the elements Tavares brings on and off the ice. The Leafs will have to do that by committee if they are to draw even in the series before heading to Montreal.
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