Analyzing Team USA's 4 Nations roster: Are they the tournament favourite?

Now that the rosters for the 4 Nations Face-Off have been revealed, there will be plenty of debate over the next couple of months about which country has the best collection of talent. 

The United States could certainly stake its claim. The Americans boast the NHL’s most dominant goal scorer of the past decade, as well as the reigning Norris Trophy and Vezina Trophy winners. 

“It will be a talented group that I think can compete against any team in any environment,” U.S. coach Mike Sullivan told NHL.com. “There's speed. There's skill. There's size. There's abrasiveness. There's defensive conscience. There's dynamically offensive players.”

Here are the players selected by U.S. general manager Bill Guerin, followed by our analysis of a roster many will see as the tournament favourite: 

Forwards: Matt Boldy (Minnesota), Kyle Connor (Winnipeg), Jack Eichel (Vegas), Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay), Jack Hughes (New Jersey), Chris Kreider (New York Rangers), Dylan Larkin (Detroit), Auston Matthews (Toronto), J.T. Miller (Vancouver), Brock Nelson (New York Islanders), Brady Tkachuk (Ottawa), Matthew Tkachuk (Florida), Vincent Trocheck (New York Rangers) 

Defencemen: Brock Faber (Minnesota), Adam Fox (New York Rangers), Noah Hanifin (Vegas), Quinn Hughes (Vancouver), Charlie McAvoy (Boston), Jaccob Slavin (Carolina), Zach Werenski (Columbus) 

Goaltenders: Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Jake Oettinger (Dallas), Jeremy Swayman (Boston)

TEAM STRENGTHS 

The Americans’ most obvious advantage is in net. Hellebuyck, who is the projected starter, has saved a league-leading 15 goals above expected this season. The U.S. has two of the top four goaltenders in that category in the tournament. 

There is no shortage of speed on the roster, either. Eichel and Jack Hughes are third and fourth in the league, respectively, in offensive-zone carry-ins and end-to-end rushes. Quinn Hughes is the league leader in end-to-end rushes among defencemen. (The Hughes brothers are also the league’s top two skaters in possession-driving plays.)

Physicality will be plentiful. U.S. players have the most combined hits (463) in the field — 52 more than the next-closest team (Finland). Expect hard-nosed play around the net and along the boards led by Brady Tkachuk, whose 35 inner-slot shots and 53 cycle scoring chances are the most of any skater in the tournament. (The forward group has an average weight of 202 pounds, compared to Canada’s 190 pounds.) 

AMERICAN X-FACTORS

Players who could be difference-makers in depth roles 

Larkin: Sullivan could lean on the Red Wings captain in shutdown situations. Larkin’s 107 blocked passes are tied for eighth most in the league with Boldy, and his 32 stick checks are tied for 12th. He is reliable in the faceoff circle as well, winning 56.3 per cent of his total draws and 58.4 per cent of his defensive-zone draws this season. Only Sidney Crosby has won more puck battles than Larkin among tournament participants.

Nelson: The Islanders forward has quietly been one of the league’s most consistent scorers over the past few years, recording 117 goals since the start of the 2021-22 season (19th over that span), including 90 in the slot. Nelson, who centres New York’s second line, ranks ninth out of 415 forwards this season (minimum 100 minutes played) with 3.84 scoring chances per 20 minutes. He also impacts games with his forechecking ability, averaging 2.59 defensive plays per 20 in the offensive zone — 20th among qualified forwards. 

Kreider: Kreider is the leader in the “Cy Young” race with 10 goals and zero assists in 21 games. The veteran winger, who has been dogged by trade rumours, could be a special-teams specialist for the Americans. Kreider is tied for the league lead in deflections on net (6) and tied for fourth in inner-slot shots (14) on the power play, where he has scored four times. Since becoming a full-time penalty killer four seasons ago, Kreider has scored a league-high 11 shorthanded goals, including two this year. 

Werenski: Columbus’ recent surge (6-2-1 since Nov. 15) has deservedly put Werenski in the spotlight. He leads all skaters in average ice time, playing a whopping 26:06 per game, and is third in scoring at his position with 26 points. Werenski is fifth in offence-generating plays (5.93) and seventh in possession-driving plays (22.4) per 20 among 223 defencemen who have played at least 100 minutes this season. It is possible that Werenski could slot in behind fellow left-handers Quinn Hughes and Slavin on the U.S. blue line, which speaks to the Americans’ impressive depth.

All stats via Sportlogiq