As the NHL’s holiday break approaches, the Montreal Canadiens are within striking distance of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
That qualifies as a major surprise. The Canadiens are not impressive in most categories that typically predict success, such as expected goal percentage at even strength (46.5 per cent). Their top player, Cole Caufield, has been one of the unluckiest in the league this season, scoring 6.06 goals below expected. (Only two skaters out of 783, Matthew Tkachuk and John Tavares, have had worse luck.)
Nevertheless, the Canadiens are hanging around the playoff race more than a third of the way through the season. The explanation is simple: Montreal’s goaltenders are doing work, stealing a league-high eight of the team’s 14 wins.
A goaltender is credited with a steal when the number of goals saved above expected is greater than the score differential in a game. For example, Cayden Primeau saved an extra 2.24 goals in the Canadiens’ 3-2 shootout win against the Buffalo Sabres on Dec. 9.
Primeau, Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault all rank among the league leaders in steal percentage, which divides the number of steals by total starts. They are routinely under duress; Montreal allows 15.1 slot shots on net per game, which ranks 28th in the league.
It seems inevitable that one of the Canadiens’ goaltenders will be traded. Allen, a battle-tested veteran who carries a $3.85-million cap hit through next season, could be of great interest to teams looking to shore up their goaltending. The 33-year-old has saved 0.55 goals above expected per 60 minutes — 11th out of 53 goaltenders who have made at least 10 starts. (Montembeault, who recently signed a three-year contract, is 13th with 0.45 goals saved above expected per 60.)
As impressive as the Canadiens’ goaltenders have been, they are unlikely to keep this up. A slide down the standings probably awaits Montreal, but being in the thick of things at this stage of the season is immensely valuable for a young team.
“The main goal of this team is to be playing meaningful games come February and March, and then see where it takes us,” Canadiens forward Jake Evans told reporters following the team’s 3-2 overtime win against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. “If we keep playing like this before Christmas, it’s a good start.”
--All stats from Sportlogiq
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