Biggest questions facing Dubas, Penguins amid another lost season

Much was made of Sidney Crosby’s comments in the aftermath of the trade that sent his longtime linemate, Jake Guentzel, out of Pittsburgh.

Fresh off one of what’s since become a string of demoralizing losses, Crosby was asked what message Penguins president and GM Kyle Dubas was sending to the team by trading away Guentzel, the club’s second-highest scorer.

“I don’t know,” a perturbed Crosby had answered. “That’s probably a better question for them.”

Chalk it up to the captain’s frustration in the moment, minutes after yet another disappointing loss. Chalk it up to having to answer questions about a trade that sent away the winger with whom he’s had the best chemistry of his career — a trade that seemingly could have been avoided had his Penguins shown more this year. Still, putting aside how he feels about the trade, the team, or the front office’s decision, Crosby’s statement speaks to something larger about the Penguins’ situation — it’s unclear what direction they’re now moving in, and where it all goes from here.

Like any team that enjoys a lengthy stretch among the league’s elite, Crosby’s Penguins were always going to reach this chapter eventually. After three Cups, perennial playoff berths and years of trading the future for the present, the downswing was always going to be painful. And now, these Penguins find themselves at a difficult crossroads, unsure whether to continue pushing for success now — or, at least, how hard they can afford to keep up that push — or whether to admit that window has closed and focus solely on what comes next.

Dubas has said he intends to do both, to give his veteran core the chance to win one more before they hang up the dream, while building the organization up for the future. But as we’re seeing now, as the team stumbles through a particularly difficult stretch, finding that balance is easier said than done.

The Guentzel trade exemplifies the problem. Removing the two-time 40-goal-scorer from the roster undeniably makes the team weaker now. But it’s tough to say just how much the package acquired in the trade — a trio of promising, but not franchise-altering, prospects and a pair of conditional picks — will move the needle for the club down the line. It’s a deal that leaves the Penguins stuck somewhere in the middle, and there figures to be a lot of that ahead.

That being the case, with the trade deadline business done and attention shifting to the home stretch and, more importantly, the off-season, what are the biggest questions facing Dubas and his Penguins moving forward?

What’s next for Sidney Crosby?

Rumour mill chatter aside, it still seems an immense longshot that Crosby will ever don an NHL jersey other than Pittsburgh’s. The intrigue to those on the outside is clear — Crosby and Nathan MacKinnon lifting Cups in Colorado, No. 87 on the back of his boyhood club’s sweater in Montreal. But those who’ve been on the ground in Pittsburgh, who’ve reported on the Crosby Era from the very beginning, say the captain’s made clear time and time again his desire to spend his whole career in black and gold.

Crosby has said as much himself whenever asked, too. He’s a noted creature of habit, playing in the house he built, at the tail end of an all-time run in black and gold that saw him deliver all that was asked of him. Could the chance to win one more Cup pull the ultra-competitive Crosby out of Pittsburgh? Maybe, but leaving Pittsburgh and moving on from the legacy Crosby has built there — as a figure synonymous with the organization, like his mentor Mario Lemieux was — wouldn't guarantee anything in a league with this many bona fide contenders.

All that said, there’s no denying the Penguins seem mired in one of the most miserable stretches of Crosby’s career. No. 87 has never missed the post-season two years in a row, has never played for a team hobbling towards the end of the season, selling off key pieces at the deadline. It’s difficult to remember a time his squad has looked this hapless — over Pittsburgh’s recent 1-7 slide, they’ve been outscored 32-11.

If the Penguins can take a breath and finish the campaign with their dignity intact, all signs point to Crosby re-signing in Pittsburgh as soon as he’s able. But if there’s anything that could cause him to potentially second-guess his future in the city, it might be another month of his team playing as they have of late, and an off-season that doesn’t bring significant change to the roster.

How many of the Penguins' issues can Dubas fix in one off-season?

If anything about the Penguins’ situation is crystal clear, it’s that this particular squad, as currently built, just doesn’t have it. They have foundational flaws, and need sweeping changes. And given the question of Crosby’s future with the team, you would assume those changes need to happen sooner rather than later.

But how much can be done in a single summer, to a roster loaded with no-trade and no-move clauses? In the wake of the Guentzel trade, Dubas spoke about the club’s opportunity this off-season, about the cap rising — from $83.5 million this season to $87.7 million in 2024-25 — leaving the Penguins with nearly $12 million to work with. While they’ll have some cap space to utilize, the key issue is the type of change that’s needed.

For much of Crosby and Evgeni Malkin’s tenure in Pittsburgh, the pair have been so dominant, so reliably great on a nightly basis, their team was able to thrive with only complementary pieces around them. That simply isn’t the case anymore. After a solid 83-point campaign just last year, time has caught up with No. 71. And even Crosby, who still looks elite, is unable to carry the team on his back as he once could. At this stage of their careers, the Penguins' two-headed monster needs genuine difference-makers on their wings — young, hungry, quick-footed scorers who can carry more of the load themselves.

How many of those types of pieces can you find and acquire in one off-season?

On the blue line, the situation isn’t much better. The club’s two marquee rearguards have struggled this season — particularly when it comes to quarterbacking the team’s power play — and the addition of Ryan Graves in the off-season wound up a disappointment, too. Pittsburgh’s steadiest defender might be Marcus Pettersson, and he’s entering the final year of his deal next season.

Simply put, changes are needed across the roster, and time isn’t on the front office’s side.

What happens to the rest of the Penguins’ core?

The Penguins’ identity has always been about more than Crosby alone. It’s why the club brought back Malkin and Letang on new extensions in the off-season, despite the pair being 37 and 36, respectively, and costing a combined $12.2 million per year.

Malkin and Letang have played at least half of their NHL careers under the shadow of endless trade rumours. Given the second straight year of disappointment in Pittsburgh, that won’t change. But it’s unlikely either is going anywhere — the Penguins aren’t trading away fan-favourite franchise legends when their value is the lowest it’s ever been. And that’s fine — both can still be meaningful contributors, if they have the right pieces around them.

But what of the newest member of Dubas’s new Core Four, Erik Karlsson?

Looking back, it was worth a swing, Dubas’s decision to go out and land the three-time Norris Trophy winner, fresh off a career-best 101-point campaign. It announced the arrival of the Dubas Era in Pittsburgh, set the club up for a star-studded Last Dance. Hopes were high. But seven months later, the move seems a clear misstep. 

The fit simply hasn’t been there between Karlsson and these Penguins, the biggest disappointment coming on the power play, which No. 65 was brought in specifically to bolster. Through 64 games, only Crosby has logged more man-advantage time than Karlsson this season, and the special-teams unit’s success rate (14.6 per cent) is at the moment just a hair above the worst mark in franchise history. More importantly, it ranks fourth-worst in the league this season, and has surely contributed to the Penguins sitting mired in the Eastern Conference basement.

The likelihood of Dubas admitting defeat on the Karlsson front and moving on from the future Hall of Famer one year after bringing him to Pittsburgh seems slim. If we learned anything about the Penguins GM from his time in Toronto, it was his unwavering belief in his team’s core. But moving the defender — and his $10-million salary — could go a long way towards retooling the team’s blue line and roster overall. 

And while the 33-year-old’s salary and disappointing campaign won’t make moving him any easier, there is one club that could be a fit — earlier this week, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman raised the possibility of a Karlsson-Ottawa Senators reunion.

“If there's one team that you think would consider it, it would be [Ottawa], with Daniel Alfredson there,” Friedman said on 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, adding that he believes the Senators will be busy making plenty of changes of their own this summer.

It’s another long shot. But regardless of whether Karlsson begins 2024-25 in a Penguins sweater or not, it seems clear a new approach is required for the team's defence corps. 

How do the Penguins get younger, while still pushing to win now?

Pittsburgh’s front-office leader made clear his off-season plan in the lead-up to the trade deadline, discussing the need for the organization to inject more youth into its roster. All but a handful of the lineup mainstays are over 30 years old, that imbalance seemingly contributing to the decision to not re-sign the 29-year-old Guentzel. But spurring a black-and-gold youth movement won’t be a simple process. 

Perhaps some or all of the prospects acquired in the Guentzel deal — AHLer Vasily Ponomarev, Liiga standout Ville Koivunen, and Wisconsin product Cruz Lucius — will find their way into the lineup as soon as next season. Or some of the club’s homegrown prospects, like Brayden Yager and Samuel Poulin. But by and large, the youth Dubas is looking for will likely be found on the trade market, and the team already learned at the deadline that the pieces they have to offer aren’t as coveted around the league as they’d hoped.

Maybe the club can find a suitor for veteran pivot Lars Eller, who’s had his moments this season. The bigger question is whether they can move on from wingers Rickard Rakell and Reilly Smith, both of whom are over 30, have modified no-trade clauses and will earn a combined $10 million next season. Blue-liner Pettersson has emerged as a steady defensive presence who could surely draw interest around the league, but the rearguard is one of the lone bright spots on the Penguins’ back-end, and one of the few key pieces under the age of 30.

As with the Guentzel trade, adding youth in a meaningful way may mean moving a more established talent, like netminder Tristan Jarry, whose name was floated in reports at deadline time. There’s no question losing the 28-year-old would set these Penguins back even further — like the Guentzel trade did — but Jarry remains one of the only marquee pieces on the roster who could draw a meaningful package of assets.

Of course, this would bring Dubas and Co. back to the same foundational conundrum: How do you safeguard the club’s future without sacrificing its present?

What’s next for the Penguins’ coaching staff?

Few coaches would be safe amid a stretch as disappointing as the one Pittsburgh is currently trudging through. And two straight years without playoff hockey will be tough to stomach for a proud Penguins organization. But Dubas has stressed, time and time again, that Sullivan is the one who will be leading his club moving forward, waving away questions about a coaching change being the solution to the team’s situation. 

To be fair to Sullivan, he’s certainly earned his respect from the organization, hanging two Stanley Cup banners from the PPG Paints Arena rafters and guiding the club through plenty of tumult during his time at the helm. And he’s hardly had a stellar roster to work with this season as his core stars have slowed down. But you have to imagine the ice is growing thinner under even Sullivan as this season wears on, with the Penguins looking more and more out of sorts with each passing game.

While Sullivan seems set to remain, it's fair to assume some changes are coming to the rest of the staff. At the very least, a new voice is needed to guide the club’s power play, as 2024-25 might wind up looking fairly similar to 2023-24 if the team doesn’t manage a significant special-teams improvement.

Simply put, there’s no shortage of issues to sort out if these Penguins are to come back from the brink next season. But the solutions won’t be easy to find, and they’re made much harder by the club’s two-pronged focus. They’ll have plenty of time to assess their options, as the Penguins' current slide has all but assured they’re in for another long off-season. 

In which case, all eyes turn to Game 1 of 2024-25, and what exactly the roster looks like by then.