Buyout, trade, or keep: What should the Kings do with Pierre-Luc Dubois?

Go back a few years and the Los Angeles Kings were this promising up-and-coming team, rising out of a three-year rebuild overseen by GM Rob Blake.

Now, after three straight first-round exits at the hands of the Oilers, each meeting ending quicker than the one before, hard questions are being asked of the Kings GM who put the team together.

"Three years of losing to the Oilers in the first round, does that nudge a generally very patient ownership group into saying 'now it's time for us to act,'" Elliotte Friedman wondered on Friday's 32 Thoughts: The Podcast.

From 2019-2021 the Kings made three picks within the top 10 of the NHL Draft and, in hindsight, hit on a few other picks including Mikey Anderson, Alex Lafferriere and Brock Faber, who was eventually traded to Minnesota for Kevin Fiala (Faber is a Calder finalist this season).

Instead of waiting for the development of this rebuild to pay off, the Kings sought to cash in and push ahead. As mentioned, Fiala was a costly trade pick up, Viktor Arvidsson was acquired for picks, Phillip Danault was a free agent pickup, and Vladislav Gavrikov was brought in for a first-rounder plus.

The most costly acquisition of all, however, was for centre Pierre-Luc Dubois. The Kings sent Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari and a second-round pick to Winnipeg for Dubois, who had been slow-playing his contract out of Winnipeg after similarly expressing a desire to be moved out of Columbus.

While the trade largely paid off for the Jets (Vilardi especially, with 22 goals in 47 games) the Kings haven't got their money's worth. Right after landing with Los Angeles, Dubois inked an eight-year contract with an $8.5 million cap hit that seemed to lock him in as an important player, top-six centre and, one day, Anze Kopitar's likely replacement as The Guy up front.

However in Year 1 Dubois delivered just 16 goals and 40 points in 82 games -- down from 27 goals and 63 points in 77 games last season. In Los Angeles he was demoted to the fourth line and, in the playoffs, was held to one garbage time goal in Game 1's 7-4 loss. He didn't record a shot on goal in any of the last three games against Edmonton and his underlying numbers were even worse -- among Kings forwards Dubois was last in 5-on-5 shots for percentage (36.84) and last in expected goals for percentage (37.98) this post-season.

So that brings us to an interesting point. Usually there wouldn't be an off-ramp for such a large contract so early, but Dubois and the Kings are in a unique situation.

There are options here that the Kings will be thinking long and hard about.

OPTION 1: THE BUYOUT

It's wild this could even be on the table for a 25-year-old, 6-foot-3, 218-pound centre just one year after the team committed such a big investment in him. But the fact is, if the Kings are considering an early exit plan, this could be the cheapest way (and time) to do it.

Because Dubois is only 25 years old, that means he could be bought out for one-third of his remaining contract value. If a player is 26 or older when they're bought out, it costs two-thirds the remaining value. Dubois will turn 26 on June 24.

Now here's where it gets interesting...

The first buyout window opens either on June 15, or 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final ends, whichever is later. And, according to the NHL's key dates calendar, the last possible day of this year's Stanley Cup Final is...June 24. If the playoffs go late enough, the Kings may not even have an opportunity to buy out Dubois at one-third the rate.

If the only choice is to buy him out at 26 years old for two-thirds, it might be too big of a pill to swallow. Remember, the "dead cap" space left behind would be stretched out over twice the remaining length of the contract, so a Dubois buyout would leave behind a cap wake for 14 years.

At a two-thirds buyout, Dubois' dead cap space would range from $2.7-$4.9 million in the next seven years, and then cost $2.26 million for the last seven years (2031-32 to 2037-38).

But, if the Kings have a window to buy out Dubois at one-third the value, the dead cap space would range from $1.5-$3.82 million in the first seven years, and then cost $1.13 million for each of the final seven years.

Here you can see a side-by-side look at what a one-third buyout would like like compared to a two-thirds buyout, courtesy PuckPedia.

And, for the owner, the difference in these two scenarios is enormous. A one-third Dubois buyout would come with a $27.3 million cost, while a two-thirds buyout would cost $43.16 million. Neither a great look for the GM who signed the deal.

Would Blake, who signed this contract, be in position to buy it out? Or would that perhaps be a more likely scenario for a new GM, who would have to act quickly?

The question you have to ask yourself is this: Would you rather have seven more years of Dubois at $8.5 million, or the far less expensive cap penalties for 14 years?

OPTION 2: THE TRADE

If getting something back for Dubois, after giving up so much, is a priority then the Kings will have to survey the trade market. Of course, that market likely isn't teeming with eager Dubois buyers now.

Like the buyout, there is only one narrow window where the Kings will be in their most advantageous position. In Year 1 of his contract Dubois doesn't have any trade protection at all, so the Kings could potentially deal with any interested team.

But once that contract flips over to the 2024-25 NHL calendar on July 1, a full no-movement clause is introduced for the next four years. They'd have to move him before then to create the best market. At the same time, given Dubois' history of working his way out of two other cities, any acquiring team would want to be sure he'd be satisfied with their city.

Of course, moving Dubois might also require the Kings to retain some of his salary -- and perhaps more salary than the cap penalties from a buyout. The San Jose Sharks traded Tomas Hertl to Vegas and retained $1.387 million on their books for another five seasons. The Sharks are rebuilding though, while the Kings are trying to contend, so keeping that amount -- or likely more -- for seven years would not be the ideal scenario.

OPTION 3: KEEP HIM AND HOPE FOR THE BEST

Giving up on such a talent -- a skilled, big-body centre who has produced before and was a top three draft pick -- at 25 years old could easily come back to bite you. What if Dubois ever returns to the flash he showed in the 2020 bubble playoffs with Columbus, when he was a point-per-game player and nightmare for opponents trying to create their own offence? He's been within a couple goals of 30 in a season three times before -- what if he reliably becomes that player?

After putting effort into acquiring various talented offensive players in recent seasons, the Kings had to back up into a 1-3-1 system under interim Jim Hiller this season to be competitive. What if that just wasn't a fit not only for Dubois, but this entire collection of talent? What if the answer is to address other areas on the roster (goaltending, blue line, depth, etc.) and bring in a new coach with a new approach to unlock the best version of Dubois? What if Dubois is better utilized as a winger, where he often played in junior?

Dubois as a player is one big 'What If' right now, but the Kings are facing a very narrow window where they could choose an exit route on the player.