It has become a great mystery, this inability to find a way to squeeze out the bonus point in extra time.
While the premise that Winnipeg Jets interim head coach Dave Lowry holds about having ample opportunity to change the disappointing 3-10 mark in overtime and the shootout is accurate, one of the unexplored storylines surrounding the team this season relates to how the poor play at 3-on-3 and beyond has essentially sabotaged his team’s playoff hopes.
For a club that slipped to 24-21-10 after Friday’s 4-3 overtime loss to the Dallas Stars in a game the Jets were in position to earn a clean two points before giving up a late goal, losing ground in the playoff chase is another missed opportunity — made even worse when you consider the visitors were without top defenceman Miro Heiskanen and noted Jets killer Tyler Seguin due to non-Covid related illness.
We’ll circle back to how the Jets first overcame a one-goal deficit to eventually hold a one-goal lead in the third period before failing to close out the contest, but let’s first examine the excruciating ending.
This was a classic case of the Jets having a glorious chance at one end — a one-timer from defenceman Neal Pionk from the hashmarks that Stars goalie Braden Holtby got a piece of with his blocker — only to see the rebound sail swiftly around the boards and allow Jason Robetson to streak up ice for a breakaway he converted to complete his first NHL hat trick with 29.9 seconds left in overtime.
There’s always an element of luck involved in 3-on-3, where all of the open ice can lead to a bit of a track meet.
Not much earlier, the Jets nearly ended things as Pierre-Luc Dubois rattled a shot from the slot off the iron.
When Mark Scheifele left a drop pass for Pionk, it was an outstanding opportunity to close the game out and the third member of the Jets on the ice was captain Blake Wheeler, who joined the rush and opened himself for a one-timer option just in case the defenceman opted to pass instead of shoot.
As the puck caromed wildly, Robertson emerged from the fray and showed off his great speed, beating Connor Hellebuyck with a quick shot to the blocker side before a diving Wheeler could impede the shot.
It was the fourth consecutive game in the season series that required extra time, with the Stars winning the final three at three-on-three after dropping a shootout to the Jets.
For a team that entered the contest six points behind the Stars in the chase for fifth spot in the Central Division, the difference between a clean win and losing ground is enormous — especially when you consider how little room for error the Jets have with 27 games left to go in the regular season.
No, the Jets can’t collect any of those 10 lost bonus points but what can they learn from the ones they’ve left on the table?
And how big a role does strategy play in the process?
Last season, Jets head coach Paul Maurice used an aggressive style, and in many ways, an innovative one, often taking as many as three rotations of three forwards in overtime — though he did occasionally mix in a defenceman on the second or third turn.
For a prolonged stretch of time, the bold strategy paid major dividends for the Jets when the game stretched beyond 60 minutes.
Of course, there are risks involved because defending with three forwards can be a massive challenge and eventually, there were a few losses that piled up, though that didn’t seem to deter the Jets from trying to be the aggressor.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Jets abandoned the strategy this season, first under Maurice and still after Lowry took over on Dec. 19.
Part of the reason for that is Josh Morrissey is having a fantastic season (he played a game-high 31:47 on Friday, including 2:06 in OT) and there are other offensive guys like Pionk and Nate Schmidt who can be effective under those conditions.
However, one can’t help but wonder if going back to a three-forward setup — even for one or two of those rotations — might prove to be a way to snap out of the extra time funk.
This isn’t to suggest playing three forwards would have definitely translated into a better record, but given the results to this point, it can’t hurt to give it a try, especially with Nikolaj Ehlers returning to the lineup on Friday after missing 19 games with a knee injury.
Lowry wasn’t interested in diving deep into any theories about why the Jets have struggled in extra time following the game.
Nor did he hint at reaching into the bag of tricks to see if the three-forward deployment might have a little magic left in it.
As is often the case, he’d already turned the page to Sunday’s game against the New York Rangers and took a measured approach on what was generated rather than what was ultimately lost.
“It’s not from lack of opportunity. If we weren’t getting chances, we weren’t getting opportunities, it would be a concern,” said Lowry, whose team is six points behind the Nashville Predators in the chase for the second wild-card berth in the Western Conference. “In every game that we’ve lost, we’ve had very good looks. You look at it again tonight, we get a one-timer from just above the hashmarks and the goalie makes a save and they come back and they score. We were getting opportunities.”
There’s no argument when it comes to the opportunities generated, if not converted.
But the Jets have also given up too many high-danger chances with the more traditional two forwards and one D-man setup.
Given how tight many games are played during the stretch run, you can expect the Jets to be involved in several more games that stretch beyond regulation time and how they handle those circumstances could play a big role in whether or not this group can stay in the race.
Picking up three of a possible 13 bonus points is simply not going to cut it.
Even earning four more wins in extra time would have immediately bumped the Jets into 10th place and left them with only two teams to leapfrog instead of four.
Instead, it leaves the Jets in the unenviable position of needing to get on a roll over the next two weeks, otherwise the prospect of standing pat will quickly be replaced by selling off assets and making moves to retool the current roster.
Back to how things quickly spun from rallying to unravelling.
The Jets got a goal from Kyle Connor early in the third period to make it 2-2, then took the lead when Wheeler found Paul Stastny for his second goal of the contest with a sublime pass that only Stastny seemed to be expecting in the slot.
But with the Jets seemingly closing in on an important victory, Jets defenceman Dylan DeMelo (who helped set up the go-ahead marker) was clearly cross-checked to the ice by Robertson prior to Denis Gurianov scoring from the left point.
The infraction was missed by the officials, who had already handed out nine power plays (including a two-man advantage for the Jets that was not converted).
DeMelo raised his arms in disbelief, stunned the play was allowed to continue and that the player who knocked him over provided the perfect screen on the equalizer.
Not wanting to risk the fine, Lowry kept his answer brief when asked about the play in question.
“Well, he fell,” said Lowry, preferring to have observers draw their own conclusions.
Despite what was missed, the question remains: Why did Gurianov have so much time to get the shot off in the first place?
There seemed to be another breakdown in coverage and that was one of several Jets miscues that ended up in the back of their net.
Friday’s game provided a glimpse of how the Jets can play when they can utilize three fairly balanced scoring lines when healthy and roll out a fourth unit that can do more than just tread water.
This was an example of what can be accomplished, a 42-shot effort that produced 22 high-danger chances while allowing just 13 (including six during the final three periods), according to natural stat trick.
It also provided a stark reminder that when the execution slips ever so slightly, there can still be serious consequences, even when a single point is put in the bank.
