Calder Trophy Tiers: Who is in the running for rookie of the year?

With NHL training camps underway, and the first set of exhibition games already in the books, it’s time to start predicting results for the upcoming season. Which teams could be contenders to hoist the Stanley Cup? Who are the favourites to win individual awards like the Hart Trophy (MVP), Vezina Trophy (top goalie), Norris Trophy (best defenceman) among others?

Today I’m going to focus on rookies who could have the most impact across the league in 2024-25.

I’ve broken down my list into two categories:

• The top tier identifies players who I believe will contend for rookie of the year honours and could win the Calder Trophy.

• The second tier of my list highlights prospects who might not land in the Calder discussion, but have the potential to play a significant role on their respective clubs.

Who qualifies as a rookie?

Before I present my list of names it’s important to understand how the NHL defines who a rookie is.

The qualifications are as follows, via NHL.com:

“To be considered a rookie, a player must not have played more than 25 NHL games in any preceding seasons, nor in six or more NHL games in each of any two preceding seasons. Any player at least 26 years of age (by September 15 of that season) is not considered a rookie".

TOP TIER: THE CALDER FAVOURITES

I set out hoping to identify five prospects who could contend for the Calder Trophy this season, but ended up setting on six names in my top tier:

Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks are in the midst of a complete rebuild and Celebrini is their most recent prized addition and a potential franchise player in the making — similar to Connor Bedard in Chicago.

Celebrini tops my list of Calder Trophy contenders. He’s a relentless competitor who works the entire length of the ice. His elite element is what he provides offensively but he has the hockey sense and determination to be trusted in a variety of roles. He’s a massive threat off the rush. He plays quick and fast. Celebrini is especially dangerous on the power play. His combination of playmaking and ability to rip pucks from the weak side flank is impressive.

Celebrini contributed 32 goals and 38 assists last year at Boston University and, at the age of 17, became the youngest ever recipient of the the Hobey Baker Award as the top men’s player in the NCAA last spring.

Of all the players on my list Celebrini is the most likely to get the most touches on the power play and regularly skate on the top line compared to other potential Calder candidates.

Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers

Michkov arrives in Philadelphia with an opportunity to skate in the Flyers' top six forward group.

Michkov’s offensive upside is significant. He craves having the puck on his stick and making plays. He contributed 19 goals and 22 assists last year in the KHL playing in Sochi, where almost all of his ice time came at even strength and the power play. He isn’t a pure burner in open ice, but he’s very crafty moving east/west and has the puck skill to beat opponents 1-on-1 in tight quarters.

Michkov’s defensive detail will range. He will be challenged by the Flyers' coaching staff to compete to the best of his ability every night and defend with adequate purpose, but his offensive upside wins out for me.

Michkov is my second ranked Calder candidate. I’m looking forward to monitoring his development and impact. I also can’t wait to see how head coach John Tortorella and Michkov co-exist in Philadelphia.

Logan Stankoven, Dallas Stars

Stankoven barely qualifies as a Calder candidate due to the fact he skated in 24 regular-season games for the Stars last season. He produced six goals and eight assists in his audition before suiting up in 19 playoff games and contributing three goals and five assists.

Stankoven only stands five-foot-eight and weighs around 171 pounds. His stature doesn’t hold him back, though. Like most players on this list Stankoven also approaches the game with relentless compete. He’s an elite thinker offensively who’s difficult to check and determined to win pucks off opponents. Stankoven has top six forward upside. Before being summoned from AHL Texas, last year, he had produced 24 goals 33 assists in 47 games.

Cutter Gauthier, Anaheim Ducks

Gauthier dressed for one game in Anaheim last spring after his college season concluded at Boston College. The six-foot-two, 195-pound winger is an elite shooter who led the NCAA in goal scoring last season (38) and finished second in NCAA overall scoring with 65 points. Gauthier possesses a lethal “catch and release” in high danger areas. Pucks are off his stick quickly and accurately. Like many elite shooters he sets up on his weak side on the power play to blast pucks on net.

Gauthier has top line upside. He provides a combination of power and skill. I’m projecting Gauthier will land in the Ducks' top six forward group and on one of their power-play units.

Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens

The only defenceman on this list, Hutson has been one of my favourite players to watch for several years, dating back to his time with the USNTDP. He’s an elusive, offensively gifted, undersized defenceman and power-play quarterback.

Hutson leans distributor overall, but his creativity leads to scoring chances off his own stick. He produced 15 goals and 34 assists in 38 games at Boston University last season. He has the legs to escape pressure and lead or join the rush in transition. His size will always be a big part of the discussion, but he defends with purpose and never backs down from competing to win pucks.

Hutson is in a battle to earn a spot on the Canadiens' blue line, but he’s used to being the underdog and has a history of rising to the occasion. If he breaks camp with the Habs I’m confident saying there will be no looking back for Hutson. His game will take off at the NHL level in short order.

Will Smith, San Jose Sharks

Smith was drafted fourth overall two years ago and joins the Sharks after one year at the college level with Boston College. He led the NCAA with an incredible 25 goals and 46 assists in 41 games, skating alongside Gauthier for most of the year at BC.

Smith brings pure offence. In his draft year he had 51 goals and 76 assists in 60 games at the USNTDP. He will be challenged by bigger, stronger, more organized players at the NHL level but his skill and hockey sense will lead to plenty of offence. The Sharks have the luxury of rolling out Celebrini and Smith on their power play.

SECOND TIER: ROOKIES WHO COULD PLAY THEIR WAY INTO THE CALDER

Every year there’s a player or two who surprise prognosticators with their immediate impact at the NHL level. An example from last year is Minnesota Wild defenceman Brock Faber who burst on to the scene and ended the year as one of the most discussed Calder finalists. Faber averaged 25 minutes of ice time, was deployed in all situations, and produced eight goals and 39 assists offensively. He signed an eight year, $68-million extension this past off-season that kicks in next year.

Here's a look at some names who could garner consideration as the season rolls along:

Josh Doan, Utah HC

Doan skated in 11 games for the Arizona Coyotes last season and contributed an impressive five goals and four assists. He’s proven he can skate at NHL pace and displays the ability to track the play and measure how it is developing. Doan is proficient at finding open ice and loose pucks in high danger areas.

The right-shot forward has a lethal release, shooting the puck quickly and accurately. Doan could be a sleeper pick for the Calder and a name to keep a close eye on this season.

Mavrik Bourque, Dallas Stars

Bourque projects as a top six scoring forward. He has two years of AHL development under his belt already and he’s played to his identity. Bourque’s primary element is his ability to create offence and he's produced 46 goals, 78 assists in 141 AHL games.

Rutger McGroarty, Pittsburgh Penguins

If McGroarty gets the opportunity to skate alongside Sydney Crosby in Pittsburgh there’s a strong probability he will produce offence in his first year at the NHL level. Of course, nothing is given and his opportunity will have to be earned. McGroarty’s combination of power and leverage along the wall and out front the opponents' net could lead to positive results.

Jiri Kulich, Buffalo Sabres

Kulich is undoubtedly Buffalo's top goal scoring prospect. He’s scored 51 goals in 119 games at the AHL level playing for the Rochester Americans over the past two seasons.

However, Kulich will need to prove he can be trusted defensively at the NHL level. He’s a work in progress off the puck, but his element could produce timely results for the Sabres.

Nikolai Kovalenko, Colorado Avalanche

Kovalenko is the oldest rookie in my tiers, a soon to be 25-year-old who was drafted in the sixth round (171^st overall) in 2018. Kovalenko has a history of being a streaky scorer, but he has potential to be deployed in a variety of roles.

He’s a stocky forward (five-foot-10, 192 pounds) who moves well and has good puck touch. He sees the ice and distributes well from the weak side flank on the power play. Kovalenko’s top scoring season came in 2022-23 season when he produced 21 goals, 33 assists playing for Torpedo in the KHL. He had 11 goals and 24 assists in 42 games last season.

Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames

Wolf has done all he can at the AHL level. He’s won an MVP award, been recognized as the top goalie twice, been a first-team rookie and twice been honoured as part of the first-team AHL roster.

The net battle is open for the taking in Calgary. Wolf was originally selected in the seventh round (214^th overall) in 2019 and the six-foot, 174-pound goalie has had to persevere every step of the way in his career so far.

NHL shooters will challenge his athletic ability and crease quickness. His small sample size of work in the league has been average to date — he posted a 3.16 GAA and .893 save percentage in 17 games last season — so it will be interesting to see how comfortable Wolf is this season in Calgary.

Yaroslav Askarov, San Jose Sharks

Askarov was acquired by the Sharks this past off-season after asking out of the crowded crease in Nashville's organization. The south-paw goalie has long been touted as one of the best netminding prospects outside of the NHL.

Askarov will most certainly be under duress with the Sharks this season. San Jose will give up more high danger scoring chances against than likely any other team in the league. If the athletic Askarov can post a goals against average at, or below, 3.00 and a save percentage of .915 or better he could end up in the Calder discussion despite his win/loss record.