How the Canadiens would approach the Kraken expansion draft right now

Cale Fleury.

That’s the Montreal Canadien the Seattle Kraken would have their sights on in the expansion draft if they were picking their players in a vacuum — just going for the best bang for their buck, angling for upside and extending the window to keep a player on their roster for at least a few more years before he’s earning premium money. The 21-year-old Fleury — a smooth-skating, big-hitting, right-handed defenceman — would be a most fitting choice, assuming he continues to progress in his development this season.

But the Kraken are building a team, not just a roster. They’re building the foundation of an organization. Who they pick from the Canadiens depends on who they plan to pick from the other 29 franchises (the Vegas Golden Knights are exempt from the process), but also on fit, on quality of the player, on age, on contract status and on a multitude of other criteria.

This process is about asset accumulation more than anything else, which is something the Golden Knights clearly understood more than most of their rivals anticipated they would in the lead up to the 2017 expansion draft. They manipulated the process to perfection — building a team that could compete immediately while accruing seven established NHLers and 11 draft picks (seven of them in the first two rounds of the 2017-2020 drafts) in exchange with 10 teams who wanted them to select specific players. They also forced their trade partners to pledge they wouldn’t make deals with other teams that could affect them prior to the roster freeze that preceded the expansion draft. And then they traded five players post-expansion draft to acquire another five picks.

So, assuming the Kraken approach it the same way — why wouldn’t they? — it’s practically impossible to predict which player they’ll pluck from the Canadiens.

And without knowing what moves Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin intends to make between now and the roster freeze that precedes the expansion draft, it’s impossible to predict what he’ll do.

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But there are a few assumptions we can make about the players the Canadiens will protect or leave unprotected, which is what we’ll be doing for the purposes of today’s exercise.

Let’s pretend the expansion draft is tomorrow and the Montreal roster is already frozen.

Note: players on the first two years of entry-level contracts will be exempt, so that means quality players/prospects Nick Suzuki, Ryan Poehling, Alex Romanov, Jesse Ylonen, Cam Hillis, Josh Brook and Cayden Primeau are staying put.

Unsigned but recently drafted prospects are also exempt from selection.

And any player with a no-movement clause who declines to waive his no-movement clause must be protected. So, you can forget about Carey Price, Brendan Gallagher and Jeff Petry going anywhere, unless one of them asks out.

So, with all of that out of the way, let’s look at how the Canadiens would approach the expansion draft if it were to be held tomorrow.

Trade a pick (or two) to Seattle to have them take Paul Byron

It’s a move that makes sense on several fronts, from clearing the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s $3.4-million hit from the Canadiens’ cap for the two seasons that follow this next one, to protecting the younger assets that would be exposed, to holding onto each of the players Bergevin acquired this off-season — players he views as essential to having the Canadiens not only contend now but for years to come.

We don’t see them paying a first- or second-round pick to Seattle do it — they’d still be losing an established 20-goal scorer off their roster to protect against losing a young-but-not-fully established player like Fleury, or a backup goaltender Jake Allen or a top-six defenceman like Joel Edmundson or Ben Chiarot — but they’ve got three picks in the third, three in the fourth and three in the fifth of the 2021 NHL Draft to play with.

Only the Detroit Red Wings (33) have made more picks than the Canadiens (29) since 2018, so Montreal can afford to lose a couple of depth selections if this ends up being the direction Bergevin opts for.

Choosing the 7-3-1 protection model over picking eight skaters and a goaltender

When you start to break it down, it seems relatively obvious that protecting seven forwards, three defencemen and a goaltender better suits Montreal’s needs than choosing eight skaters and a goaltender.

In truth, most teams will opt for that structure just because of the natural composition of an active roster — each team has several more forwards than defencemen. That proved to be the case last time around, with only the Arizona Coyotes, Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins choosing the 8-1 model.

The common thread between these teams was that they either didn’t have enough quality forwards as members of their core or they had more than three defencemen they needed to protect. Surely there were cap considerations, as well.

We digress.

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The Canadiens have at least three defencemen they’d want to protect, which would leave them room to guard only five forwards and Price if they chose the 8-1 model.

That means exposing two of Jonathan Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen and Phillip Danault, assuming Josh Anderson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Tyler Toffoli join Gallagher as locks to be protected.

Given the depth of Montreal’s defence, they’re better off being able to protect all those players — assuming Lehkonen and Danault sign contract extensions between now and the expansion draft.

Granted, the 7-3-1 model only allows the Canadiens to shield one other defenceman outside of Shea Weber and Petry. But if we assume that player would be Chiarot, it’s fair to say they can probably recover more easily from losing one of Edmundson, Brett Kulak, Victor Mete, Noah Juulsen or Fleury than if they were to see one of the aforementioned forwards go for nothing.

7-3-1 protection projection:

F: Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli, Drouin, Lehkonen, Danault, Kotkaniemi

D: Petry, Chiarot, Weber

G: Price

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Up front, that would leave Byron and young centre Jake Evans exposed, which the Canadiens are likely to do regardless of which protection model they choose.

If the Kraken pick Byron, the Canadiens free up some of the cap space needed to sign Kotkaniemi and Suzuki to new deals. In the likelier event they choose Evans, at least Poehling — among other promising, young centres — is a potential replacement already in the system.

Tomas Tatar and Joel Armia would also be exposed, but they’re unrestricted free agents who don’t necessarily factor into the Canadiens plans beyond this season anyways.

We’ve already gone through who will be exposed on defence, which leaves us with our final topic to consider.

Allen an obvious choice for the Kraken

You have to think one of the reasons Bergevin extended the goaltender’s contract so quickly after acquiring him from the St. Louis Blues this off-season was to make him that much more enticing to Seattle in the expansion draft.

There were other reasons, too.

Having a backup of Allen’s quality behind Price ensures a more even split of games and gives the Canadiens one of the best 1-2 punches in the league for two seasons beyond this coming one. Also, even if it’ll be cumbersome to still have Price earning $10.5 million on the cap while he’s playing less often, it’s a bargain to have Allen locked in $2.87 million per to play upwards of 35 of 82 games and buy Primeau more than enough time to develop into a quality NHL starter.

So, if the Canadiens end up keeping Allen, they’ll be far from disappointed.

But if they end up losing him — because Seattle can surely see the benefit in plucking out an experienced and capable goaltender at that price — they can live with that, too.

For one, extra development time for Primeau is a luxury and not necessarily a must. And losing Allen would also keep them from losing any of their core forwards and defencemen.