Canadiens Season Preview: Can a more experienced, deeper team defy expecations?

MONTREAL — The Montreal Canadiens enter Year 2 of their rebuild as a deeper, more experienced team.

The idea of them making the playoffs is farfetched, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t aiming for them.

Still, the primary goals for the Canadiens are to continue to establish their identity and to ensure each individual continues to grow within that identity. It’s with those goals in mind that coach Martin St. Louis is increasing the responsibilities of his young players and expecting they’ll be able to handle them.

He’ll continue to nurture these players, but repeated mistakes from them won’t be tolerated to the same degree they were a year ago when the Canadiens were still in the infancy stage of this project.

“We’re more advanced as a team now,” St. Louis said when Canadiens camp opened. “You don’t ask the same thing of a baby as you would a seven- or eight-year-old. You can expect an older kid to brush his teeth and make his own bed. We’ve now reached another step.”

There are still many steps to climb for the Canadiens to become the perennial contender that executive vice-president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton and general manager Kent Hughes are aiming to build them into.

Neither Gorton nor Hughes are under illusions about that, but they still expect more of this group.

“I can’t give you a concrete definition of how expectations have changed,” said Hughes from the Canadiens’ annual golf tournament, on Sept 11. “But I said at the end of last season we’re not coming in thinking it’s a given we won’t make the playoffs.”

The Canadiens are coming in excited to prove they can defy expectations.

Their quest begins Wednesday, in Toronto.

2022-23 regular season record: 31-45-6, 68 points

2023-23 season finish: 8th in the Atlantic Division, 28th in the NHL

Additions: Alex Newhook, Gustav Lindstrom, Tanner Pearson

Subtractions: Mike Hoffman, Rem Pitlick, Denis Gurianov

1. Sam Montembeault’s bid to establish himself as a true No. 1 goaltender

The 26-year-old is starting off in the main chair, he’s in the final year of a contract that pays him $1 million and takes him to unrestricted free agency and, if he proves he belongs in this chair for the whole season, that’ll be the best thing for both him and the Canadiens.

They need to know they can count on Montembeault as they eventually transition from bottom dweller to playoff hopeful, that he can continue to build on a strong 2022-23 season to emerge as a viable starter now and be a potential one on a winning team down the line. Otherwise, investing in him long-term won’t make much sense.

If Montembeault falters, he’ll be whiffing on the best financial opportunity he’s had since being drafted in 2015, and he’ll be leaving the Canadiens searching to fill one of the hardest positions to fill.

2. Alex Newhook’s bid to establish himself as a top-six forward

He can be this year’s Kirby Dach, and the Canadiens are banking on him to be exactly that after trading a first- and second-round pick in the 2023 draft, along with Gianni Fairbrother, to acquire him from the Colorado Avalanche.

With Newhook’s speed and skill, with the details he developed as a middling forward over three seasons on a deep Avalanche team, and with the opportunity he’ll have to play up the lineup and under a coach that will enable him to play free, there should be no reason (outside of injury) he fails to take a significant step in his development.

The 22-year-old’s versatility — he can play centre or wing, power play and penalty kill — should only help. His experience should, too. And with his contract resolved for the next four years, at just $2.9 million per, the pressure on him has been somewhat mitigated, much like it was for Dach a year ago.

Newhook’s chance to cement himself as a top-six forward is the best he’s had since he was drafted 16th overall in 2019. If he takes advantage of it, that’ll be a big coup for the Canadiens.

3. The health and performance of Montreal’s best trade assets

Here’s looking at you Sean Monahan and David Savard.

Monahan scored 17 points in 25 games last season and was well on his way to securing the Canadiens another first-round pick at the deadline when injury stopped him in his tracks. That he would’ve been able to do that while still counting for half his prorated $6.375-million cap hit says a lot about what he could fetch this time around if he remains healthy.

The 28-year-old counts for just $1.985 million this season. That number jumps to $2 million if Monahan plays at least 26 games. And neither of those numbers — especially with the Canadiens retaining half his salary in a trade — will prove remotely prohibitive to an acquiring team hoping to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Monahan had an excellent training camp, and he recently said he feels better than he has in years. He’s going to be put in positions to produce and continue to build up his value as the season goes along.

If Monahan can stay healthy, we like his chances of doing exactly that. And the return could be significant.

We can see it being decently high for Savard, too, if the six-foot-one, 235-pound defenceman continues to offer what he’s brought to the Canadiens since 2021.

He’s a Stanley Cup winner, a leader, a stabilizing force, and he contributes at both ends of the ice. And while Savard may not be good enough to regularly play in the chair he’ll occupy for the Canadiens, he’d be an ideal depth option for a contender.

The 32-year-old’s status as a non-rental player could make him even more appealing, especially considering his contract structure. Teams could be very compelled by the Canadiens retaining some of Savard’s $3.5-million cap hit through the end of next season, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll only be owed $2.8 million in actual dollars for 2024-25.

If they aren’t, the Canadiens don’t have to trade Savard. If his value doesn’t prove to be more on the market than it is to them, then they won’t.

But Logan Mailloux is coming. David Reinbacher, too. And the time to capitalize on trading Savard to make room for one or both of them down the line could be as soon as later this season.

If the Canadiens remain in and around the playoff picture until roughly mid-February before falling off dramatically enough — through attrition and trade — to ensure top-10 positioning in the 2024 draft order.

That’s a result that serves both the present and the future; one that best serves development, but also one that gives the team a chance to either secure an elite forward through the draft or via trading a top-10 pick.

If the Canadiens play meaningful games for more than half the season — if they’re in the race, winning more than expected, continuing to build their identity — that will help them achieve their growth goals more than just about anything. It will also likely mean that certain key trade assets will have boosted their individual value ahead of the deadline.

Then it’s sell, sell, sell to continue collecting the assets that advance the rebuild to the next phase.

Player Who Could Surprise: Mattias Norlinder

The 23-year-old Swedish defenceman, who was drafted 64th overall by the Canadiens in 2019, showed in pre-season he has NHL promise.

Norlinder vaulted up the depth chart with his all-around performance, moved right to near the top of it as an option to quarterback the power play and, even if he starts the regular season with the Laval Rocket, we don’t believe he’ll have to wait long to deliver on that promise.

Forwards

Cole Caufield-Nick Suzuki-Josh Anderson
Alex Newhook-Kirby Dach-Juraj Slafkovsky
Tanner Pearson-Sean Monahan-Brendan Gallagher
Rafael Harvey-Pinard-Jake Evans-Jesse Ylonen
Michael Pezzetta

Defencemen

Mike Matheson-David Savard
Kaiden Guhle-Johnathan Kovacevic
Jordan Harris-Arber Xhekaj
Justin Barron

Goaltenders

Samuel Montembeault
Jake Allen
Cayden Primeau