Cap Comparables: How Nylander's new deal stacks up

The Toronto Maple Leafs have locked up their leading scorer, signing William Nylander to an eight-year extension worth $92 million on Monday.

Just like that, the top player on the 2024 UFA market is off the board.

The contract carries a cap hit of $11.5 million annually through 2031-32. It’s a massive jump from the $6.96 AAV attached to the six-year pact Nylander signed as a restricted free agent in December 2018 — though, not an unexpected one, considering his production, the going rate for an elite goal-scorer, and the rising cap on the horizon.

From steal to setting the new market

Nylander’s expiring deal has looked like a steal almost since the day he and former GM Kyle Dubas put pen to paper, the star forward consistently upping his production every season. His play took another significant step forward in the last two seasons, with Nylander posting career-highs across the board in 2021-22 and again in 2022-23 to reach the 80-point mark in both. His numbers this year have been even better — with 21 goals and 54 points so far through 37 games, he’s well on his way to another career year as the Maple Leafs’ most productive player.

The unflappable star forward has never been shy about stating his desire to remain in Toronto, and his bet on himself in his all-important contract year has certainly paid off. Toronto GM Brad Treliving, too, made it clear since his tenure started that he wanted to keep Nylander on the books, and Monday’s agreement makes it official.

Nylander’s contract is significant for a number of reasons that go beyond just locking up a star player long-term. In terms of total dollar value, it’s the largest contract in franchise history.

It also marks the largest deal Treliving has ever negotiated — though, not the biggest cap hit, as Auston Matthews’ four-year pact, which comes into effect the same time Nylander’s does on July 1, comes with a $13.25-million AAV.

Matthews’ cap hit likely set a standard of sorts for Nylander’s negotiations — while the deals have drastically different terms, it was expected that Nylander’s AAV would reflect the rising value set by his teammate.

“I think because of where Matthews got to, it was going to have to be reasonably close to that,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said after the new was made official. “I don’t think that he was going to be taking three or four million less. That was proven to be correct.”

Salary cap on the rise

For the first time in seven years, the NHL’s salary cap is making a significant jump. Currently set at $83.5 million after a second straight $1-million rise after the COVID-19 pandemic ushered in three years of a flat cap, the cap is set to rise 4.79 per cent to $87.5 million for the 2024-25 campaign. It’s expected to rise again the following year, up to $92 million for 2025-26.

This is the jump many big stars — remember all those bridge deals? — have been waiting for, and the Maple Leafs haven’t wasted much time putting that extra space to use.

Looking ahead to 2024-25, Toronto is currently set to carry two of the league’s five highest cap hits: Matthews’ $13.25-million AAV sits atop the league, followed by Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6), Connor McDavid ($12.5), Artemi Panarin ($11.643) and Nylander, whose $11.5-million cap hit matches that of Erik Karlsson’s eight-year deal he signed with San Jose in 2019.

Look at the current scoring leaders, and you’ll once again find Nylander among the top players there, too. He’s currently tied with McDavid for fourth in points (54) behind Nikita Kucherov, MacKinnon, and Panarin and Pastrnak (tied).

Cap comparables: How does Nylander’s cap-hit percentage stack up to his peers?

So, how exactly does Nylander’s new deal stack up to his peers? This one is particularly interesting considering the rising cap moves our measuring stick. Because of that, the best way to size up this deal compared to those signed by his peers is to measure the percentage of the cap hit Nylander’s deal counts for starting next season.

For a little added context, McDavid’s historic deal signed in 2017 carries a cap hit of $12.5 million — one million more than Nylander will earn starting next year, but accounting for a whopping 16.67 per cent of the salary cap at the time of signing.

Here’s a closer look at Nylander’s numbers, plus three comparable contracts today using cap-hit percentage as a measuring stick.

William Nylander, F, Toronto Maple Leafs

Contract: Eight years, $92 million, $11.5M cap hit (signed January 2024)

Percentage of cap hit: 13.77

David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins

Contract: Eight years, $90 million, $11.25M cap hit (signed March 2023)

Cap-hit percentage at time of signing: 13.64

Look back at the $45-million deal Nylander signed in 2018, and you’ll see some comparables that still stand today — at the top of that list is Pastrnak. In 2018, Nylander’s $6.96-million cap hit was just above the six-year deal the Bruin signed a year earlier, the two contracts counting for a near-identical cap percentage in the 8.76-8.89 per cent range. (Bargains, both of them.)

So, it was no surprise considering market value and stats, that after Pastrnak inked an eight-year deal last March that better reflected his production, Nylander’s next deal should come with a similar figure. Pastrnak and Nylander currently sit fourth and fifth in league scoring, respectively, with Nylander just one point behind his Boston peer.

In term, total value, cap hit, and cap percentage, the contracts signed by Nylander and Pastrnak also are nearly identical. Nylander’s 13.77 cap-hit percentage is a hair above Pastrnak’s.

Jonathan Huberdeau, F, Calgary Flames

Contract: Eight years, $84 million, $10.5M cap hit (signed August 2022)

Cap-hit percentage at time of signing: 12.73

Same general manager, different team. And, one year later, these Canadian clubs find themselves in very different situations.

Like Nylander, Huberdeau was among the league’s biggest bargains as he rode out the six-year pact that ushered in his biggest payday. A few years older than Nylander is now, Huberdeau was coming off an all-time great season that saw him rack up 85 assists and 115 points with the Florida Panthers before the trade to Calgary. He’s struggled to produce at that same rate since moving to Calgary.

John Tavares, F, Toronto Maple Leafs

Contract: Seven years, $77 million, $11M cap hit (signed July 2018)

Cap-hit percentage at time of signing: 13.84

Okay, so the situation was different — Tavares was a UFA, and the Maple Leafs were just establishing the Core Four — but it’s an interesting comparison based on value of cap-hit percentage at the time of signing and how it reflected the going rate for top-end talent at the time of negotiations.

Tavares’ seven-year, $77-million deal saw him account for 13.84 per cent of the Maple Leafs’ salary cap at the time — a near-identical figure to Nylander’s. Compare their stats at the time of the deals, and those are close, too. Tavares’ contract year saw him tally 37 goals and 84 points, and his first year in Toronto brought an 88-point campaign.

Elsewhere on the Maple Leafs’ roster, you’ll see another comparable percentage: Mitch Marner’s six-year pact signed in 2019 carries a $10.903 cap hit, which accounted for 13.38 per cent of the cap hit at the time of signing.