The price for Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, according to league sources, isn’t just exorbitant.
It’s currently prohibitive.
“It should be,” said one Eastern Conference executive, granted anonymity to speak openly about another team’s business. “He’s been a No. 1 centre for almost all his time there, and that has its own price. But factor in his cap hit ($8.7 million through 2031) in this landscape, and that’s worth a premium.”
This conversation was playing out over text while the Canadiens were completing a win in Chicago under the watchful eyes of Red Wings assistant general manager Kris Draper, who’s surely been following them for no other reason than due diligence for a potential trade.
He was there in Toronto for Game 1 between the Canadiens and Leafs, then in Montreal for Canadiens-Sharks Oct. 20, and once again in Chicago for Canadiens-Blackhawks last Friday. There were rumblings he was at the Heritage Classic in Winnipeg Sunday — though we didn’t see him there — but he was definitely at Enterprise Center for Canadiens-Blues Tuesday, and it’s not because he’s suddenly become a fan of either team.
If all of this smacks as absurd to you because Larkin hasn’t officially listed Montreal as one of the cities he’s willing to waive his no-movement clause for, consider that there aren’t many — if any — teams on his list loaded with the type of assets the Canadiens have to offer for the player’s services.
Still, that doesn’t mean they’re willing to meet the current price that’s been set for the 30-year-old’s services.
“It’s not about to come down, either, with the Wings hanging around and winning games,” added our league executive, and he was right.
After losing five of their first six — one in a shootout to Montreal and one in overtime to the New Jersey Devils — the Wings have won four of six for a respectable 5-4-3 record. As much as they’d like to resolve Larkin’s pending trade request and be done with it, they’re not in a rush to do it so long as they’re in the mix while he’s averaging close to 22 minutes per game and contributing to their success.
Even with milder production than we’re accustomed to from Larkin since he returned from the injury that kept him out of the first two games — he has two goals and four assists in 10 games — he’s maintaining his value to the Wings.
As for Larkin’s market value, if any listed team could or was willing to meet where the Wings have set it, he’d likely be with them by now.
By now, you’ve surely heard our Elliotte Friedman telling TNT the reception Larkin got from Canadiens fans “moved the needle a bit” when they were chanting at the Bell Centre that they wanted him to come. He also said in that Sunday interview with Jackie Redmond, “The only way (a trade) could happen is if Montreal and Detroit were in a situation where they felt they could make a deal and then they would have to go to him.”
Friedman echoed those comments on 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, saying this would have to be “reverse engineered,” and that the Wings would have to present a trade to Larkin to see if he’s truly willing to go to Montreal.
We’ve heard buzz he is, but without speaking to Larkin, there’s no way of knowing for sure.
We do think there’s a big difference between preferring other destinations and not wanting to come to Montreal — a nuance that must be considered when you take into account how heavily Draper is scouting the Canadiens.
Unless this is all to set up a move involving six-foot-six, left-handed defenceman Simon Edvinsson, who’s currently holding out on the Wings and demanding a trade, Detroit would be spending a lot of time and money for absolutely nothing, knowing there’s no chance Larkin would come to Montreal. They’d have to think there’s more than just a chance investing this much.
We think Larkin is also helping the Wings maintain his top trade value by not officially listing the Canadiens, which should count for something in how the Michigan native will be viewed down the line in the only market he’s ever known since being drafted in 2014.
Larkin stood on the bench on opening night at Little Caesars Arena and took the booing of a lifetime until eventually retreating to the dressing room. He knows what comes with asking out, and he’s taken it, still suiting up for all these games and competing to help the Wings win. And if he can net them the best possible trade they can make—even if it’s not to one of his preferred teams—he has a chance of at least preserving some of the legacy he built in Detroit.
It will always be stained by his exit, but that shouldn’t erase Larkin topping 30 goals and being close to a point-per-game centre in each of his last five seasons. He played hard, with pride through injury, and suffered a lot through the disappointment of the Wings getting so close but falling just short of breaking their playoff drought.
That, and a really digestible contract, is what should make the price for Larkin’s services exorbitant. Even with the market limited by his list.
So long as it’s prohibitive, no team is currently stepping up to pay the price.
But the Canadiens can pay an exorbitant one for a player who’d slot perfectly underneath Nick Suzuki for the next four seasons after this one. They have roster players Draper’s been watching — like 23-year-old centre Oliver Kapanen and 22-year-old left-handed defenceman Adam Engstom, among others — who could prove appealing to help supplant what’ll be lost when both Larkin and Edvinsson are out. They have two NHL goaltenders behind Jacob Fowler. And they have premium prospects in forwards Michael Hage and Alexander Zharovsky, and defencemen David Reinbacher, Bryce Pickford and Luke Mittlestadt, who’s currently leading the AHL in scoring.
They won’t give them all up. And if they’re willing to give the very best of them up, we don’t think they’d be rushing to pile much else into the package.
But this still could go down in time.
It’s not about to go away with Larkin still in Detroit and Draper following the Canadiens around. But barring a major skid for the Wings, the price isn’t likely to drop any time soon.
