Evaluating the status of five NHL coaches on the hot seat

Over the years the purpose of a coaching change has evolved. Coaches used to be hired to coach a team and they’d do it until it appeared that team stopped responding to them, at which point they’d promptly be fired. Pretty standard A-to-B logic there.

But these days it seems more layered. First, the salary cap has been flat for years, so every team trying to win is either at or within a few million of it, which means making roster moves is just about impossible. The coach is of the few things you can change, which makes it an easier button to push.

Stakes are higher than ever. Teams are worth billions, costs are through the roof, and owners don’t just want to be successful because yay winning but because they stand to lose millions if they aren’t.

It’s also an accepted way for a GM to turn the metaphorical Eye of Sauron away from their own chair, and if we’re being frank about all these NHL jobs, the sole goal of most of them is just to keep them. Firing a coach is a little bit of "Don’t worry about the roster I constructed, isn’t our power play breakout awful?" Common wisdom is a GM at least gets to have their own guy, and really, they probably get to fire their own guy once too, before they’re in trouble.

We’ve already seen five head coaches fired this season, and if we’re going to get more, it makes sense for teams to do it sooner than later. So at the NHL’s halfway point, I thought we’d look around the league at another five places where you’d say the team has underachieved, and assess if they are, or should be, on the verge of a fresh start with a new bench boss.

Toronto: 22-13-8, 3^rd in Atlantic, 5-4-1 past 10

Prior to beating the Calgary Flames on Tuesday night, Sheldon Keefe’s job had been called into question, and a lot of it has to do with the reasons mentioned in the intro. There’s not a ton the Leafs can do given their salary cap situation, they have good players and high expectations, so a four-game losing streak is enough to start that conversation.

With Keefe, I think two things are true. One is that he’s done a good job having success with a flawed group. They are still somewhere around a 100-point pace and I don’t think Scotty Bowman could make their D-corps better than it is. They’ve bet on continuity with their team, he’s a winning coach, and he works his tail off, which I know from working with him.

And hey, he’s typically got things sorted after four-game losing streaks, as you can see here:

2020-21: 0-3-2 ➡️ 7-0-2
2021-22: 0-3-1 ➡️ 15-2-1
2022-23: 0-2-2 ➡️ 15-1-4
2023-24: 0-2-2 ➡️ 11-2-4
2023-24: 0-3-1 ➡️ 1-0-0

We’ll see if that trend continues.

I also think that sometimes coaching changes have nothing to do with the job a guy has done, and that it’s easier to build a new home than to renovate the old one. There are a lot of relationships with Keefe here, which have been through a lot. Which is to say, it’s possible someone else with a fresh start could get different results for the team.

The question is, would those results be better? Didn’t work out in Minnesota. Didn’t work out in Ottawa. Change for change’s sake – when you already have a good coach – is still very much a risk.

Conclusion: The team needs a trade. “It’s hard” is a soft excuse, and with their core talent, a couple bodies could make a huge difference. But if they don’t want to do that, I think they need to wait until the All-Star break in two weeks to re-assess. Have they turned it around? Or has it gotten worse? Because if it’s gotten worse or even just doesn't improve, I could see a change coming.

Ottawa: 16-24-0, 8^th in the Atlantic, 3-7-0 past 10

I just can’t believe the Sens are here, honestly. They have so many good players, it just seems impossible. Yes, they’ve played the fewest games in the division by about four on average, but even if they won all those games they'd still be in last.

Bringing Jacques Martin in to replace DJ Smith was such a wishy-washy “fix” for something the team deemed a real problem. The players know Martin's not The Guy long-term, so it’s like playing for a substitute teacher. All the very important little details and behaviours that go into NHL success don't have to be shown by these young players until the eventual head coach shows up. They can wait for The Guy who’s going to be there when they turn things around. So, hire that guy and turn things around.

It's a shame Daniel Alfredsson has had to be a part of this weird transition, because he’s a great Senator who knows the game as well as anyone. But the longer this goes, the worse it looks for all involved.

Conclusion: You have the chance to act before other teams go to hire Craig Berube, who would be perfect for a young team that needs to figure out the details to take the next step. Shane Pinto is coming back, which helps. You just got a good win. I’d love to see the Sens act soon and get the guy who’s going to be The Guy for a while.

Los Angeles: 21-13-8, fourth in Pacific, 1-5-4 past 10

The Kings recently put together an eight-game losing streak, and suddenly find themselves behind the surging Edmonton Oilers for third in the Pacific. They’re three points up on ninth in the conference, meaning they’re holding on to a wild card spot, but boy -- that’s a sharp step back from where it felt like the Kings were in their rebuild just a month ago.

But in all honesty, where should they be? They don’t have much in the way of top-end, elite talent (no players are at a point-per-game). They’re in a division with some top-end teams, as Vegas, Edmonton, and Vancouver are all legit. The thing that probably wasn’t realistic was the wild hot start they got off to.

Conclusion: The Kings have great depth and will be a hard out in the playoffs. They’re mid-slump. But they’re probably around the third- or fourth-best team in the Pacific by talent, which is where they are in the standings. I don’t think someone could come in and turn them into something much more than Todd McLellan has.

NY Islanders: 19-15-10, 6^th in the Metropolitan, 3-6-1 past 10

I spent some time looking into aging curves of NHL players yesterday, and my conclusion was this: as guys get older, their ability to produce offence falls off hard, but a few models show that their ability to defend (which is more positioning, strength and brains) declines much slower. I looked into that, because yes, the Islanders have some aging players. But there’s no reason this team should be such a defensive disaster.

Maybe Lane Lambert has opened things up to squeeze more offence out of a group that doesn’t naturally produce a ton (maybe!), but either way, you can’t be a Cup contender (or even a playoff team?) when you give up as many goals as the Isles do. They’re 23^rd in the league in goals against per game, yet their goalie, Ilya Sorokin, shows up as the NHL’s best in terms of “goals saved vs. expectations” (via SportLogiq). He’s given them about 20 – 20! – saves where a league average goalie allows a goal, which is worth a lot of wins.

In sum, even with great goaltending (from both Sorokin and Varlamov), the Islanders are in the middle of a rough stretch where they give up a lot and have fallen down the standings, even though they have plenty of good players. They have a D-corps that’s probably better than league average by talent and they have some offensive ability, so this team should be better than they are.

Conclusion: The Isles have way more to give in an area that I think reflects coaching – defending. I like Lambert, and think he knows his stuff, but failing to get his team to better adhere to defensive structure is a problem.

New Jersey: 22-17-3, 7^th in the Metropolitan, 5-4-1 past 10

This week we heard Lindy Ruff give it to a reporter for questioning his benching of a young player, to which I’d note: he seems a little frustrated. But it’s tough to blame him, given the team is far below expectations this year based almost entirely on the back of poor goaltending and some injuries.

“You can’t win if you don’t get saves” – Every Fired Coach Ever.

The Devils are getting the 31^st-ranked save percentage in the NHL (just above 88 per cent), which in a tough division is enough to sink any ship. Tough to blame the coach there.

Conclusion: Maybe there’s more Ruff could do, but until you trade for a goalie, you can’t blame the bench boss. Lindy should have some time yet.