Whenever a suggestion arises that the Ottawa Senators should be actively “tanking” for a higher draft pick, I try to imagine how this could play out in the dressing room.
“Hey guys, c’mon, let's turn those pucks over in the neutral zone.”
“And in our own end, can we please screen our goalie without actually blocking the shot? Let’s go, we can do this!”
The idea is as ludicrous as it sounds.
Players don’t tank. They are hard-wired to compete.
Managements can tank. They do that by selling off assets at the trade deadline and by giving kids a chance to play late in the season.
In Ottawa’s case, the deadline tank was a bit of a disaster. The only player the Senators were able to move was UFA winger Vladimir Tarasenko.
The Senators roster is more or less intact, minus the loss of Tarasenko and the absence of centre Josh Norris to a season-ending shoulder injury.
The two main takeaways after 67 games played:
One. The Senators don’t need to tank, their own play all season long has put them in 28th place, a lot closer to a premium draft pick than to a playoff spot.
Two. They still have a lot to play for; in many cases, careers are on the line over these final 15 games of the schedule.
A look at some of the individual reasons to play on through these final four weeks of the season. Don’t worry, we won’t bother trying to sell you on the notion of “playing the right way” to carry into next year. Experience has taught us not to buy into the "garbage time" after a team is out of the playoff picture.
Brady Tkachuk: 35-plus goals?
Remember when Tkachuk was drafted fourth overall by Ottawa in 2018 and fans were freaking out about his measly eight goals scored at Boston University? Oh, the angst when the Sens bypassed Filip Zadina for the rough-and-tumble winger with the great bloodlines. Zadina had scored 44 goals for the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL while Tkachuk, at 18, was playing against young men in the NCAA in a smaller schedule. This just in, Zadina, the sixth overall pick of the Detroit Red Wings in 2018, recently hit a career high in goals with 12, playing for the lowly San Jose Sharks. Tkachuk, meanwhile, just became the fifth player in Senators history to record three or more consecutive 30-goal seasons. The captain has become Ottawa’s most consistent scorer. Did anyone see this coming, when the big shooters were supposed to be Norris and Tim Stützle?
While 40 goals would require a torrid finish, Tkachuk, with 31, should match his career high of 35 goals set last season. Like other Senators, Tkachuk’s point totals are down from last season when he was a point-per-game player. He has 57 in 66 games.
Tim Stutzle: Career assist mark?
He can still dart, dazzle and amaze. His goal against Carolina Sunday extended his consecutive points streak to six games (which ended in Tuesday’s 6-2 loss to Boston), even if he didn’t care to talk about it following the 7-2 defeat. But let’s be honest. Stützle is not enjoying the same success as last year’s breakout season when he scored 39 goals with 51 assists for 90 points. And it is not just about the numbers. Though he is trying to be more responsible in Jacques Martin’s system, Stützle has had conspicuous giveaways in the past two games that led to opposition goals. The turnover to David Pastrnak for his second of three goals Tuesday night was egregious. It’s a split-second action, a cross-ice pass, without seeing the opponent lurking. Stützle looked very frustrated on the bench as this game progressed.
Now 22, in his fourth full season, Stützle’s goal scoring is way down, at 17 goals. He could blow past that assist total, however, with 47 already in the books.
In his final 15 games, hitting targets of 20 goals, 50-plus assists and 80 points would be significant. The point target will be the toughest, requiring more than a point per game over the rest of the schedule.
Drake Batherson: 30 goals?
Batherson might be the most positive story on the entire roster. Last summer, fans were demoralized by Batherson’s minus-35 and wondered if he could become an effective two-way winger, beyond the occasional highlight-reel goal. Approaching his 26th birthday, Batherson has answered a lot of questions this season. His play away from the puck has improved, as suggested by the minus-5, one of the better plus-minus numbers among Ottawa’s top scorers.
With 23 goals, a career high and second on the team behind Tkachuk, the inclination is to think the big winger is shooting more. He’s not. But he’s shooting better. Last season, Batherson took 249 shots in 82 games, exactly three per game on average. This season he is down to 2.3 shots/game, with 156 in 67 games. His shooting percentage, though, is back up near his career average. In his first two seasons, Batherson had a shooting percentage of 15.3 and 15.5. Last season it dipped to 8.8. This season it is back up to 14.7 per cent. With 51 points, Batherson needs 11 more to match his career high for points set last season.
Claude Giroux: 20 goals for the 11th time?
Though his scoring has tailed off (one goal since mid-February), Giroux continues to amaze. His slap-shot shootout goal winner against Columbus last week is still being talked about. At 36, he is one of only four Senators to have played in all 67 games and he is logging 20 minutes per night. There have been times this season when Giroux has been frustrated, which he has shared with us post-game, yet he rarely shows it on the ice. He won’t match that remarkable season with Ottawa a year ago (35 goals, 79 points in 82 games), but Giroux needs just one more goal to hit the 20-goal mark for the 11th time in his career.
The veteran audition: Careers on the line
We know there will be big changes coming in the off-season. At all positions. No one expects that GM Steve Staios will keep this same goaltending tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg.
On defence, there is the question of Jakob Chychrun, a minus-21 player with one year remaining on his contract. Have Jacob Bernard-Docker and Erik Brannstrom done enough to stick around, or will they be dealt for more experience?
Then there are the players on the margins. Dominik Kubalik couldn’t attract a team at the trade deadline, but surely he gets a deal somewhere in the summer. At 28, he’s only a year removed from a 20-goal season with Detroit. He should be motivated to finish strong.
Regarding others among the bottom six forwards, what about Mark Kastelic (playing better lately), newcomer Boris Katchouk and veteran Rourke Chartier?
To paraphrase The Clash, should they stay or should they go, now.
They have a lot on the line these last 15 games.
Will we see more prospects in Ottawa?
With AHL Belleville still in the playoff hunt, the B-Sens need their best players. But if they should fall back or if injuries happen in Ottawa, there is a chance we could see defence prospect Tyler Kleven and others before the season is out.
The Senators have just gone through a pair of brutal losses, after a three-game winning streak, and a seven-game losing streak before that. All part of a dreadful season.
But don’t think for a second that the players aren’t trying or don’t care.
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