Examining Maple Leafs star Matthews' slow goal-scoring start to season

The puck was at Auston Matthews’ feet on the edge of the crease, begging to be tapped into the net.

Matthews swatted at it, but a sprawling Logan Thompson cut him off with his blocker hand.

“Yeah, it sucks,” Matthews said after the Maple Leafs’ 3-1 loss to the Golden Knights on Monday. “I just need one to go in. You get one to go in, it just kind of relaxes (you) a little bit.”

The reigning Rocket Richard Trophy winner is 1-for-33 this season, scoring his lone goal on his 10th shot — a deflection from the outer slot that trickled past Washington’s Charlie Lindgren on Oct. 13.

Matthews overcame a slow start last season on his way to a franchise-record 60 goals, so this slump is probably much ado about nothing. But it is still worth exploring.

One thing that stands out is the location of Matthews’ shot attempts. So far, 42.4 per cent of them are coming from the slot (25/59), down from the 58.9 per cent rate he posted last season. Of Matthews’ 60 goals last season, 53 came from the slot.

Of course, seven games is a small sample size, but through the same number of games a year ago, 64.1 per cent of Matthews’ shot attempts (41/64) were from the slot. All three of his goals at the time were from there.

Matthews’ slot shots, though, are hitting the net at virtually the same frequency as last season — 56 per cent in 2022-23 compared to 56.1 per cent in 2021-22. Basically, if Matthews can find his way back to the high-percentage scoring areas, then his goal total should skyrocket.

Matthews is not alone in his early-season scoring struggles. Linemate Mitch Marner, who scored a career-high 35 goals last season, also has one in seven games, albeit on 13 shots.

“It’s not happening right now, but we can’t get frustrated with each other, and that’s the thing that we’re not doing,” said Marner, who hit the post on a breakaway Monday. “We’re staying positive. We know (it’s) coming. Obviously, you’d like those to drop to try to make a difference in the game, but sometimes it doesn’t happen.”

On the Tuesday edition of “Real Kyper & Bourne,” Justin Bourne floated the idea of breaking up Matthews and Marner to get them and the team going offensively.

Unsurprisingly, Matthews and Marner were better together than apart at even strength last season, controlling 65.6 per cent of expected goals in 812:46 of shared ice time. When Matthews was away from Marner, it dipped to 57.1 per cent. As tempting as it is to split them up, their long track record of success suggests it may not be the best solution.

Whatever Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe decides to do with Matthews and Marner, the Leafs need their superstars to get on track.

“I think they’re dealing with it fine,” Keefe said. “They’ve just got to continue to work. (Matthews) is not going to come as close to scoring without actually scoring than he did (Monday). It’s right there, and we’ve just got to continue to stay with it.”