Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: Can Liljegren maintain spot on Leafs' top power play?

The fantasy playoffs did not get off to an ideal start for yours truly, or you if you started Joey Daccord on Monday.

The Seattle Kraken goaltender had an all-time awful performance to kick off the week, allowing three goals on four shots and getting pulled right away. Those numbers are virtually impossible to come back from in a head-to-head matchup and can leave you chasing the goalie stats in a futile attempt to try and salvage a category.

It goes to show that even one of the safer starts can turn disastrous. Daccord has been stellar all season, Seattle was 5-0-0 all-time against Buffalo prior to that game and the Sabres had scored two goals or less in four of their seven previous games. That’s not to say you should’ve expected a shutout or anything, but it was fair to think Daccord at least wouldn’t blow up your stats.

Making this more frustrating is Seattle had a really great playoff schedule and still do. The Kraken play Arizona and Montreal this week and then Anaheim twice in a row next week. So, there’s an argument to hold onto Daccord even if your trust is shaken.

Time for your questions:

Next week is tough because only two teams play four times, the majority have three games and a handful play twice. That means the value of backups drops because it’s hard to grab someone of waivers that’s going to give you multiple starts. As mentioned earlier, the Kraken do have a good schedule and if Philipp Grubauer or Daccord get both those games against Anaheim they could be a good add, but that’s uncertain. All three of your goalies have really tough schedules next week, too. So, I might drop Ingram and stream for spot starts from goalies with good matchups and go from there. 

I would only go with Chandler Stephenson if your league has faceoff wins. Otherwise, I’d roll the dice with Ivan Barbashev for his hits coverage. Jack Eichel only returned recently, so that line of Eichel, Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault may still take a bit of time to get the chemistry back. Barbashev is still a better bet than Stephenson though, and has more upside because he’s on that top line.

Not sure if these guys would be available but Thomas Harley and Brock Faber could definitely be considered building blocks. Those two have the potential to be really good in a year or two, with Harley not being that far off already. Some players that might be further away are the likes of Simon Nemec, David Jiricek, Pavel Mintyukov and Jamie Drysdale. All four of these would be worth taking a chance as keepers to see if they make a big jump next year.

Inconsistent is the word I’d use here. Tristan Jarry’s overall numbers aren’t terrible, but there are a lot of ups and downs to his game. That’s mainly because the Pittsburgh Penguins simply are nowhere close to what they once were and that is hurting Jarry, too. Jarry could give you a quality start here and there if it’s a good matchup, though I’m not sure you can’t find a similar option on waivers as a spot starter right now. He’d be hard to trust in an important game in a fantasy playoff matchup at this point.

I think the Kraken have the best overall schedule for me during that stretch. They have Anaheim three times, San Jose twice and Arizona during those weeks. It’s not going to get much better than that whether you’re looking to add a Kraken skater or a goalie.

The Boston Bruins don’t have a great schedule to me. They get Florida and Tampa next week, then Nashville, Carolina and Florida the following week, and then only two games in the final playoff week, with Carolina again being one of the opponents. Not ideal.

I like Anthony Duclair’s situation more at this point. He’s playing with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point and has looked really strong since joining Tampa. He has major upside at this point.

Depending on how many players you keep year to year and your league categories, Nico Hischier could easily be a keeper. Maybe not if it’s a shallow league where each team only keeps two or three, but in deeper leagues where you keep a handful of players, Hischier definitely qualifies. He’s around a point-per-game player with good shot volume that can fill other categories like faceoff wins if needed.

I’m probably dropping Connor Ingram out of that group. I trust Daniil Tarasov more right now as the Arizona Coyotes have not had a good second half. Stuart Skinner is a must hold and despite that debacle from Daccord, the Kraken have an amazing schedule and he’ll likely get a chance at redemption.

What’s your favourite scoring system for fantasy hockey?

I’m a big head-to-head, multi-cat fan. I find there’s much more day-to-day strategy in head-to-head compared to roto and sometimes with roto you can fall out of it so early. Also, by including different categories like hits, blocks, penalty minutes and faceoff wins as an example, you can build your team in a lot of different ways. It challenges GMs to construct diverse rosters as well.

There’s probably not much difference between the two at this point, though Tarasov certainly is surging. It’s funny because next week they’ll play each other twice, though the remainder of this week sees pretty tough opponents for both guys. Tarasov has proven to be more consistent lately, so he’s who I’d go with.

I think it’s safe to drop David Rittich at this point. He could have value as a streamer down the stretch since he’s had a couple of strong starts lately, but he’s probably comparable to half a dozen other guys on waivers at the moment and you don’t need to have him occupying a roster spot full time. If you need a spot start in the playoffs, there should be several similar options to Rittich available.

What teams play more games next week for playoffs? Who are the best pickups?

Next week the only teams that play four times are Vegas and Anaheim. Ducks players like Troy Terry and Mintyukov could have some value as streamers. For Vegas it’s a bit more complicated, as a lot of their high-end players are probably already rostered. We talked about Barbashev and Stephenson, but also consider Nicolas Roy and Anthony Mantha. Roy has been quiet lately, but he’s still on power play one.

Timothy Liljegren is certainly becoming an interesting option for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He’s now quarterbacking the top power-play unit and has been fairly productive of late, notching five points in his past six games. Liljegren is also averaging about 21 minutes in his last three contests. We’ve seen some stretches of relevance from Liljegren before, but the question always is, can he sustain it?
The problem I see with Liljegren maintaining this pace is Toronto’s power play has actually been pretty bad in March and that’s putting it mildly. Only one of Liljegren’s points over this stretch has come on the man advantage and unless the unit can really turn it around quickly, it seems likely Morgan Rielly will eventually get bumped back up to the top group.

The other thing to consider here is that Mitch Marner is injured and the power play has a completely different look right now. When Marner returns, it’s very possible the Leafs reunite the entire unit that’s had so much success this season, meaning Liljegren would move to power play two. Toronto’s schedule also concerns me this weekend, with games against the Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes. Liljegren doesn’t have the best track record against good competition and his minutes could easily get dialed back.

There’s no denying that Liljegren has been impressive lately, but I think it’s a long shot he keeps his current deployment and success long term.

Normally I’m in favour of going with fewer goalies, but I don’t see the value in dropping Pyotr Kochetkov or Alex Georgiev for one of those skaters you listed there. Unless you’re only starting one a night and you’d be benching one regularly, then I’d look at dropping Georgiev. Based on the schedule and the Hurricanes' current rotation, it looks like Kochetkov would get two of three games next week. If there were some more potent skaters on your waiver wire then I would consider going that route.

I think that should be OK, although I’d just caution about assuming Ilya Samsonov will start two of those three games if that’s important to you. It’s possible Joseph Woll may get two starts next week to get him going, but it’s hard to say at this point. Phil Danault has been good lately and Barbashev has one of the best schedules next week, so those would be good adds if you do decide to go this route.

I prefer Matt Duchene’s schedule next week. The Dallas Stars have a couple of good matchups, compared to Boston’s which is much tougher. I also think the return of Tyler Seguin could give Duchene a boost.

There’s definitely still time. Dylan Larkin’s injury really hurt the Detroit Red Wings and the top six in general and we’ve already seen the impact of his return in one game Thursday. I think it’s going to help Alex DeBrincat at even strength and on the power play. The Wings may have deficiencies, but scoring isn’t one of them. DeBrincat should figure it out.

I’d rank JJ Peterka and Jeff Skinner very similarly, and slightly ahead of Jordan Greenway. I don’t think Greenway is as efficient of a scorer as the other two. I’d probably give a small edge to Skinner, though Peterka has the better deployment right now, so either is a fine option.