Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: Has Senators' Jakob Chychrun’s value taken a hit?

While many are gearing up for a fantasy playoff run, some are already looking ahead to next season.

Who to keep, what the value will be for certain players, and what new prospects to target are all things worth pondering. Something else to consider is who might be a candidate to be over-drafted based on their play from this season.

One name that may fall into this category is Erik Karlsson. The San Jose Sharks defender is having an incredible season, with a realistic shot at 100 points and currently sitting just outside the top 10 in scoring. As good as he’s looked this year, that’s going to be hard to duplicate. Just ask Roman Josi.

Josi had 96 points last season but couldn’t come close to that this year. That isn’t to say he’s been bad, but if you drafted Josi with the hopes he would get close to the century mark, you’ve probably been disappointed. Karlsson also has more working against him than Josi. He has a long injury history and his team isn’t very strong. The likelihood of him flirting with 100 points again seems very slim.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t draft Karlsson next year, but just let someone else take the risk if they want to grab him in one of the first two rounds.

Time for your questions:

Out of this group, I’d go with Akira Schmid. He might not be the obvious pick but the team in front of him is really good, where as Karel Vejmelka and Daniil Tarasov likely won’t be playing for a strong squad for at least a couple more years. Plus, Schmid is signed at a cheap cap hit for next year and I have a feeling Mackenzie Blackwood won’t be back. There’s a chance Schmid could slide into the No. 2 role and push Vitek Vanecek for playing time, much like he has down the stretch this season.

The short answer for Connor Bedard is very high. It certainly depends on your league format, but there’s definitely a case to be made that he could be worthy of a first-overall selection in leagues where there is no limit on how long you can keep players. Bedard could end up being a keeper for the next 15 years in those formats. Now if your league has a rule that you can’t keep a player for more than three or four years for example, that downgrades Bedard a bit. But he could still be a late first-rounder in that scenario.

Adam Fantilli I probably wouldn’t reach as high for and maybe it takes him a bit longer to start producing significant numbers at the NHL level, but he’s still really good. He could be another franchise player that will be a keeper for a long time. This draft figures to have a few players at the top that are going to go quite high in keeper leagues.

Thomas Novak has been very productive since getting called up and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue into next season if given the same role. Keep in mind, Novak has produced much of his offence without Filip Forsberg in the lineup and hasn’t slowed down even with Josi sidelined for the past few games. The only concern with Novak is his peripheral stats, as his hits are almost non-existent and his shot volume is just average. So, for points leagues he should be a decent option, just be sure you have others that can supplement his lack of hits if you’re in a multi-cat format.

This is a tricky one. Alex Georgiev is a lock for me, as the Colorado Avalanche are a great team and there’s really no one to challenge him for starts with Pavel Francouz struggling to stay healthy. For the second one I’m torn between Jeremy Swayman and Frederik Andersen. If Andersen re-signs in Carolina or with another strong team I’d go with him, but if he doesn’t, I’d go with Swayman. Even in a timeshare this season Swayman has proven to be very effective.

Tough one here. If you’re basing it on just this season the obvious answer is Filip Gustavsson. He’s been the much better goalie and plays on the much better team. Still, I wonder if all the dead cap space the Minnesota Wild have from the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts is going to start catching up to them and prevent them from competing over the next couple of years in the Western Conference.

The Detroit Red Wings appear to be on the rise and it probably won’t be long before they’re a really strong team, which Ville Husso will benefit from. If you’re thinking long-term here the answer might be Husso, but if Gustavsson re-signs with the Wild and you aren’t looking much beyond next season then Gustavsson could be the choice. It really depends on the makeup of your fantasy roster and how competitive you think your team is going to be next year.

If Denis Malgin, or anyone for that matter, sticks with Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon on the top line they would be a great pickup. Malgin looked good Monday in a short stint with that group and had a three-point night, so we know he’s capable of producing offensively. Add in the fact that the Avs play Arizona twice this week on off nights, and Malgin could be a savvy pickup.

After a great start with the Ottawa Senators, Jakob Chychrun has certainly slowed down with one point in his past eight games. He’s definitely not being featured as much as he was with the Arizona Coyotes and it’s another example of how getting traded to a better team doesn’t always mean it helps a player’s fantasy value. The emergence of Jake Sanderson is also working against Chychrun, as Sanderson’s power-play time and minutes have shot up. Not to mention Thomas Chabot, who logs a lot of ice time, is still a very prominent member of the defensive corps.

I think for the remainder of this season you can look for alternatives to Chychrun if need be, but I’m not overly concerned about him in Ottawa moving forward. Line combinations and pairings change all the time and my guess is over a full season with the Sens he’ll get plenty of offensive opportunities.

I might give Sergei Bobrovsky a chance here. The Florida Panthers have a great schedule next week, including games against Montreal and Columbus. Bobrovsky isn’t the most consistent goalie in the world, but he has been winning lately. He’s 6-1-1 in his past eight games to be exact. I’m worried about the uncertainty around those other goalies and if they’ll play enough to make your add worthwhile.

I’m not going to overthink the first three, as Connor McDavid, Elias Pettersson and Kevin Fiala should be locks. For the fourth I’d go with Trevor Zegras, although there are arguments for all of them. JT Miller could be a worthy choice if your leagues has things like hits and PIMs, and there’s also nothing wrong with Martin Necas if he continues at a near point per game pace. I just think the upside of Zegras trumps the other two. He has the highest ceiling.

With one point in nine games, he definitely is. Bo Horvat has struggled offensively without Mathew Barzal and now Brock Nelson went down with an injury the other night as well. If you can get by without his faceoff wins, there are probably better options on your waiver wire right now that can produce more offence than Horvat.

Aaron Ekblad has had a couple of very quiet games recently, and he wasn’t even able to record a shot in either contest. At this time of year there are very few players that aren’t droppable, and Ekblad certainly isn’t one of them. Florida does have a good schedule next week, though, but if you have John Carlson returning you could probably part with Ekblad.

It’s hard to imagine the return of Carlson won’t hurt Rasmus Sandin’s value in some way and we’re already seeing the impact. Sandin has played a ton in March, averaging 25 minutes a game prior to Carlson’s return, but Thursday after Carlson came back, Sandin played less than 20 minutes. The main concern is the top power-play unit. That’s a prime spot with Alexander Ovechkin to set up for one timers and Thursday we saw Carlson play three times as much as Sandin with the man advantage. Sandin was also held off the scoresheet for only the third time in March, while Carlson had a big night. If this keeps up, Sandin could be a drop.

• Travis Konecny is practising but no exact timeline on a return. If you need the roster spot you may have to move on for someone who’s going to help you in the more immediate future.

• Dawson Mercer has gone cold and Lucas Raymond isn’t exactly tearing it up, but that said, there probably isn’t anyone is talented available on your waiver wire. If you’re assured of playing next week I’d keep them, if not, then maybe look for someone on a hot streak.

• It doesn’t look like Adin Hill is even skating yet, so he’s probably a drop if you need an IR space.

You could consider it. That second line is now made up of Val Nichushkin, JT Compher and Alex Newhook, so all the elite talent is on the top line. Plus, Newhook doesn’t get top power-play time. He’s definitely getting an increased opportunity, but I would just temper my expectations where Newhook is concerned.

We talked about how unlikely it is that Hill will be able to return to make a fantasy impact, but Kevin Fiala is at least skating. If you can hold him for a little longer I would in case he’s able to return by at least next week. You’d want him around if you make it to the semi finals or finals in your league. Fiala could be a difference maker.

I’d rank Eetu Luostarinen first because he’s been very consistent over the past 15-20 games. Then I’d go Anthony Duclair next and finally Anton Lundell. Duclair is more likely to produce offence than Lundell. Though all three are decent options to consider next week with Florida’s schedule.

If Joel Hofer keeps getting playing time, he’s definitely worth considering. Hofer has been very strong, albeit in a small sample size, and the St. Louis Blues have some favourable matchups coming up. Anaheim on Saturday and then Vancouver and Chicago next week are games you should feel decent about starting Hofer in. There aren’t that many good options in net available on waivers right now, so Hofer could prove valuable if he keeps up his strong play.