This season might be one of the best illustrations of why it often makes sense to wait until much later to draft a goalie.
Linus Ullmark, who on average went in the 14th round in drafts, would be Exhibit A for this theory. Ullmark is sporting an incredible 20-1-1 record with a .938 save percentage and was likely available on waivers in a lot of leagues when the season started.
Now you can’t always count on someone to have as strong of a season as Ullmark is having to be just sitting there waiting to plucked off waivers, but if you know where to spot the opportunities, you can find quality goaltending at a great price. Pyotr Kochetkov, Stuart Skinner and now Pheonix Copley are other examples of netminders that have provided great value this season that were an afterthought during drafts.
If you’re comfortable with a little uncertainty in your crease to start the year, you can focus more on skaters during your draft and piece your goaltending together once you get a better idea of how things are shaping up across the league.
It will save you a lot of headaches if you know who to bet on.
Time for your questions:
The simplest thing would probably be to trade Antti Raanta. The Carolina Hurricanes appear to be showcasing him for a deal recently, as they’ve given him starts against the struggling Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers. Outside of a shutout against Chicago, though, Raanta isn’t doing his trade value any favours. He’s sporting an .882 save percentage in his past five starts.
If the Canes could move Raanta, they would free up some cap space and still have a strong tandem of Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov.
Those other three are a bit safer than Kochetkov, but I don’t think Kochetkov is a must-drop when Andersen gets back. I’ve mentioned in the past that I think the Canes would be crazy to send Kochetkov back to the AHL given how well he’s played, though anything is possible. I ultimately think eventually it’s going to be an Andersen-Kochetkov tandem.
A better idea might be to try and trade Kochetkov while his value is high. He’s too valuable to simply drop to the waiver wire.
Teuvo Teravainen has been one of the more disappointing players in fantasy hockey this season and it’s getting tough to hold onto him. He’s on pace for just 39 points and I’m concerned he’ll see his opportunities reduced when Max Pacioretty is healthy. If you’re holding onto some hope, however, the fact that Teravainen’s shooting percentage is only at 3.4 per cent suggests that eventually he’ll hit an offensive surge, because that mark is well below his career average. There’s only so long you can wait, though.
Trevor Zegras was quiet before the break, but he had a nice bounceback Wednesday, picking up two points and seven shots. I wouldn’t drop him yet. Zegras had 61 points a year ago and really hasn’t even scratched the surface of his potential. He’s still right around last season’s pace for points and one good point streak could easily see him eclipse that.
Victor Hedman has been much better lately and a 60-plus point season is still possible if he can stay on this pace. I don’t see him getting anywhere close to 80, though. Mikhail Sergachev is still a threat to steal power play time and Hedman has dug himself such a hole, he’d have to score at a ridiculous pace to get close to last year’s numbers.
As for Filip Hronek, he’s never been a huge point producer, so that run in November wasn’t going to last. Hronek could still be rostered in deep multi-cat leagues, but keep your expectations realistic as far as his points are concerned.
It’s David Perron for me. He’s got six points in his past five games and is very consistent. Perron can play with anyone and still produce and the impending return of Jakub Vrana to the Detroit Red Wings top six should give the offence a boost.
I would drop Rasmus Sandin out of that group. With Morgan Rielly returning and the Leafs experimenting with a five-forward power play unit, Sandin’s opportunities for offense are going to dry up. The Toronto Maple Leafs also have a plethora of defensive options all of a sudden, so it wouldn’t even surprise me if Sandin gets scratched for the odd game just to keep everyone involved.
I’m always hesitant to base roster decisions on the fantasy playoffs well over two months ahead of time. I’d go with Brandon Hagel right now because his offence has been fairly steady and as long as he stays in the top six, he should continue to produce. You can always re-assess as we get closer to March. There might be a better option pop up around then that makes more sense, but at the moment, focus on the best option for your team right now.
Just looking at your goalies, I’d probably hold onto Cam Talbot. Adin Hill is fading a bit and hasn’t been great over the past month or so and I’m concerned Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be sent down when Eric Comrie is healthy. Keeping Talbot would at least give you a solid trio you could roll with.
I like Kirill Marchenko, personally. He was over a point per game in the AHL this season and has four goals in 10 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets since being called up. He also has good size and with Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine around long term, Marchenko could be very valuable if he grabs a spot on that line.
I think this year you should be better off, but in the long run you might wish you had kept Luukkonen. The Buffalo Sabres appear to be trending upward and if he’s their goalie when they become a really strong team, Luukkonen will have plenty of value.
I’m not overly concerned about either of them. It’s been a bit of a cold stretch for both and disappointing neither recorded a point during Pittsburgh’s four-goal outburst Wednesday, but Rickard Rakell has actually been finishing a lot better than he has in recent years and is on pace for 30 goals this season. Jake Guentzel is also scoring at better than a point per game. Don’t panic over a few quiet games.
Even at his age, Evgeni Malkin is still essentially a point per game player, so you’ll at least want someone around that production. I wonder if someone with more upside and a bit younger like Chandler Stephenson might be a good target. He fills a lot of categories and is a very versatile player. Or…
Brock Nelson would be another name to target in a deal. I wouldn’t drop Malkin before exploring the trade market, since his name still carries a lot of weight and he’s too talented to not try and recoup an asset from.
I worry about Tanner Jeannot because his shooting percentage was so high last year. I don’t see him scoring at the pace he did in 2022-23. I might try someone like Patrick Kane or John Klingberg, who could be dealt to a contender and see their value jump.
There are a few names to consider. James van Riemsdyk and Adam Henrique are a couple of possibilities that could be moved that should have some offensive punch if they land with a good team. Another name that’s intriguing to me is Kevin Hayes. He’s having a good season and is already clashing with John Tortorella, but Hayes’ contract might make a move more complicated.
I think it’s going to be hard for Josh Morrissey to keep this up for two seasons. He’s on pace for 95 points, which is a massive season for a defenceman. That doesn’t mean he’s going to fall apart completely, though, as I think head coach Rick Bowness has unlocked something in his game. Morrissey should have more of an offensive upside going forward, just don’t expect another historic campaign.
Nathan MacKinnon is the best player out of that group, but I’d rather have the trio. Jeremy Swayman has lost the net to Linus Ullmark this season, so the value of Jack Hughes, Martin Necas and Alex Georgiev simply carries more weight. That’s two high-end offensive talents and a starting goalie on a really strong team. Not even MacKinnon is worth giving that up.
Anything is possible, but we probably need to pump the brakes on Pheonix Copley somewhat. He’s provided a lot of stability to the Los Angeles Kings in goal after a disastrous campaign from Cal Petersen and a regression from Jonathan Quick, just don’t forget he’s a 30-year-old that’s still only played 40 NHL games. I wouldn’t be giving up a huge haul to secure him for the future in a keeper league. If you’re in a one-year league, however, definitely grab him and see where this goes.
I think it’s safe to drop Dominik Kubalik at this point. He was a nice option when Detroit’s top six was missing some key players, but with Vrana back soon and Tyler Bertuzzi on the way, Kubalik will be hard pressed to regain his offensive touch.
Devon Toews is a decent option in fantasy, just not an elite one. He had a great year a season ago, but the Colorado Avalanche have been riddled with injuries in 2022-23 and that’s certainly taken a toll on Toews’ numbers. Realistically, he’s probably around a 60-65-point player in a best case scenario.
There really is no reason to keep Jack Campbell anymore. Stuart Skinner has started 10 out of the past 12 games for the Edmonton Oilers and that included matchups against the Anaheim Ducks and Arizona Coyotes. The Oilers simply don’t have any confidence in Campbell right now.
It probably doesn’t hurt to pick up Michael Rasmussen to see where this decent stretch he’s having takes you. That said, when Vrana and Bertuzzi get back, it’s going to be tough for Rasmussen to hold onto top line minutes. I think he’ll be a short-term add and nothing more.
Some rapid fire answers here:
- If your league counts hits, I would grab Tom Wilson
- I’d keep Marc-Andre Fleury. I can’t see Fleury losing the net entirely and in a worst-case scenario he’s still part of a tandem on a good team.
- Take your chances with Copley. You know what you’re getting from John Gibson at this point. He might steal a game or two for you but his numbers won’t be great on the Anaheim Ducks. Copley has more upside.
My response would be neither, but between the two I’d have to say drop Rakell. As long as Hagel is in the Tampa top six, he’s going to be more valuable.
As great as it would be to add Tage Thompson, they’d have to add a little more for you to give up Sidney Crosby and Matthew Tkachuk. It isn’t a crazy proposal, but getting a decent draft pick as well would probably make it easier to say yes. If you’re giving up Crosby you have to be 100 per cent confident you’re getting enough in return.
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