Five thoughts on the Maple Leafs just three weeks from the trade deadline

There was a few days span in mid-January when it seemed like a legitimate debate: should the Leafs even bother going “all in” yet again this season?

They had lost four of five games and the case to sell was growing. They appeared worse than previous iterations of the Leafs that had fallen short in the playoffs, and even those other teams were significantly improved at the deadline before the fell short. Sparse assets sit in Toronto's cupboards after years of buying, and burning through what’s left would leave them all the more bare in the seasons ahead.

While some of that remains true — they are indeed a bit worse than they’ve been the past few years — the Leafs have also won five of their past seven, and their core is just too good to go quietly into that good night.

So, a few thoughts on where the Leafs are at and where they’re going, just three weeks from trade deadline:

1. Kiss the Leafs' 2024 first-round draft pick goodbye

It's gone, as Nick Kypreos mentioned on our radio show Thursday. The core of this team is in its absolute prime and if they're playing well all they really need is a goalie to get hot at the right time to have a chance in any series.

Yes, they rely too heavily on those core players. They score over 60 per cent of Toronto's goals (most in the league from a top-four by a good margin) and play the bulk of the ice time. As you can see, only a couple teams have their top four forwards log more ice time:

But in the end, you only have these players for so many years and Auston Matthews is maybe the best version of himself he’ll ever be, on pace for over 70 goals. William Nylander is having a career year and John Tavares is still a useful offensive player. Mitch Marner is once again on pace for his usual mid-90s point total. It’s not going to get better than this. The depth scoring has the potential to break out, and so they really just need some defencemen — two of them — and badly.

If the Leafs want to get anyone meaningful — and they do — they’ll have to trade a legitimate asset. They love their prospects, and want those guys to help in the years ahead, so the most moveable, valued thing is this year’s draft pick.

2. How Matthews is producing more

Matthews is on pace for a career goal-scoring season, so what’s different? Well, two things.

One is that he’s scoring on one-timers more than ever before. As you can see from his goal chart, he’s settled into that off-wing circle a little more, while waiting for his teammates to find him. This is last season:

And this is this season's goal chart:

He’s less likely to be digging in the piles for loose pucks these days, and more likely to fan out and say “if you can get it to me out here, I’ll put it home.”

But more than that, Matthews' shot selection has been different. He has more five-hole goals in 2023-24 than any of his previous five seasons, with his eight being double the next-highest total.

And further to that, his non-five-hole goals have shown a new preference too. Many shooters have been leaning more on “mid-glove” as goalies improved their low blocker coverage and started cheating towards the coveted “high glove” spot. 

Here is the percentage of Matthews' non-five-hole goals that have been glove side over the past four seasons:

2020-21: 54%
2021-22: 54%
2022-23: 47%
2023-24: 65%

3. A Tyler Bertuzzi breakout is coming

Yes, he took a bad late penalty on Thursday and his ice time suffered as a result. But the guy has had truly unbelievably bad luck, given the amount of offensive chances he’s been involved in while being rewarded with absolutely zero points.

Say whatever you will about regression, nobody creates as much as Bertuzzi has without getting some points eventually. And when it happens, the Leafs' offence will look an awfully lot more dangerous, given what I wrote earlier about how much they rely on their big four.

4. Would it be possible to flip useful players based on need?

I am curious to know just how creative Brad Treliving could get at the deadline. I look at a guy like Max Domi, who’s been pretty effective when given opportunity with the Leafs. Yes, depth scoring has been an issue for them, but Domi seems to need opportunity, minutes and linemates to provide that. I wonder if the Leafs would consider flipping a guy like him at the deadline, and using what’s gained in the return to shop for a defenceman, or a heavier defensive forward somewhere else?

This isn’t really meant to be about Domi, so much as “How creative will Treliving get with re-shaping this team?” (If T.J. Brodie would fetch big value, could you re-allocate his money to a snarlier defenceman? )

Because you can either throw your hands up and go “We’re flawed but changing is too hard,” or you can recognize there are legitimate shortcomings and jump through the hoops necessary to reimagine some of the roster's construction.

And finally…

5. Their goaltending is just going to be an absolute wish and a prayer

Joseph Woll is going to be back very soon from his high ankle sprain, and the Leafs' hopes essentially rest on how that injury has healed. He looked superb at times early this season, and their ability to trust Ilya Samsonov is lost. He was fine against the Flyers, but it’s hard to see them getting back to full trust.

And so, this is the plan for the Leafs: hope Woll comes back and looks like the best version of himself, or hope one of Samsonov or Martin Jones can hit a weird goalie hot streak. With so few assets, and so many other issues, goaltending just won’t be where the Leafs choose to spend to get better.