There have been a few early-season surprises in the NHL, both good and bad. As November approaches, here are five teams who stand out for various reasons:
The Bruins’ demise was greatly exaggerated. When they announced that Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk would miss the start of the season after having surgery, it was widely assumed that the team would fall too far behind in the cutthroat Atlantic Division.
Yeah, about that.
After whooping the Red Wings 5-1 on Thursday, the Bruins are a league-leading 7-1-0, the best record through eight games in franchise history. It didn’t hurt that Marchand, who returned to the lineup weeks ahead of schedule, had three points in his season debut.
The Bruins are averaging a league-high 4.25 goals per game, which will be difficult to sustain. The 2021-22 Panthers are the only team in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) to average four goals per game over a full season.
If any team can do it, though, it’s the Bruins, who boast several high-level scorers. David Pastrnak’s 5.5 scoring chances per game top the league, with Jake DeBrusk (3.7) and Patrice Bergeron (3.4) following closely behind him. Marchand had five scoring chances in his season debut Thursday.
Although some regression is likely, the Bruins’ fast start doesn’t seem like a mirage.
A pattern has developed in Buffalo over the past few years. The Sabres spring out of the blocks, inspiring hope in a success-starved fan base. Then they crater.
Since 2018-19, the Sabres have a .663 points percentage in October (24-11-5), even after losing to the Canadiens on Thursday. It hasn’t helped them make the playoffs, which they haven’t done since 2011.
Rasmus Dahlin’s historic streak to open the season — he was the first defencemen to score in each of his first four games — distracted from the Sabres’ 40.1 expected goals percentage. The Sabres don’t have the goaltending to withstand such a discrepancy long term.
The 3-4-1 Predators, perhaps against their better judgment after four consecutive one-and-done postseason appearances, are in win-now mode. They snapped an 0-4-1 skid Thursday by beating a tired Blues team starting its backup goaltender, but a win is a win.
Over the past couple of seasons, the Predators have been propped up by elite goaltending from Juuse Saros. When they stormed back from an 11-16-1 start to make the playoffs during the shortened 2020-21 season, Saros saved a league-best 12.3 goals above expected in the second half. Last season, Saros was second in that category behind Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin.
Saros has saved an extra 2.5 goals in the early going, but the Predators’ top players have mostly been missing in action. Fortunately for them, Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi each had three points against the Blues.
The Predators are better than their record indicates, but how much better? That is unclear.
We’ve been waiting for the Devils to take the next step for some time. They’re 4-3-0, but their underlying numbers say they should be better.
The Devils’ 64.3 expected goals percentage at even strength trails only the Hurricanes, but their 4.4 true shooting percentage (goals/shot attempts) is tied for 23rd.
Simply put, the Devils can’t finish. They certainly have the talent to do so, led by Jack Hughes, who ranks first out of 123 forwards (min. 100 minutes) with 3.3 expected goals at even strength but 109th with 1.3 goals scored below expected.
Keep a close eye on the Devils, who could be on the verge of a breakout if their goaltenders can get their act together. That’s a big if, considering the Devils have the league-worst .855 team save percentage after also finishing at the bottom last season (.886).
This one is simple to explain. Carter Hart has been sensational so far, leading all goaltenders with 7.9 goals saved above expected. On Thursday, Florida’s Brandon Montour was the first player to score on Hart from the inner slot this season. Hart, though, stopped 14 of the Panthers’ 15 shots from there as the Flyers improved to 5-2-0.
The Flyers rank dead last in the league with 14.2 expected goals, and their 21 actual goals are tied for 26th. If Hart slips even a little bit, the Flyers are toast.
Data via Sportlogiq
COMMENTS
When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.