How formation changes helped Rangers' Mika Zibanejad find scoring touch

Mika Zibanejad got off to a slow start in the goal column. Sound familiar? Probably because that’s been the story in each of the last three seasons.

In 2019-20, it really wasn’t until December that Zibanejad consistently started to score. Then he went on an absolute heater in late January that kept rolling until the season came to a pause in March, just after a five-goal night against the Capitals. He finished with a career-high 41 goals in 57 games, at the third-highest pace in the league of two goals per 60.

When the 2020-21 season kicked off, the centre didn’t pick up where he left off. Through much of the first half, he couldn’t buy a goal with just one tally and four points in 15 games. The slower start was in part attributed to a case of COVID-19 that held him out of training camp after a long off-season. By March, Zibanejad started to turn it around; he ended up with 24 goals in 56 games with 22 of those scores coming in the 37 games onward from the first of that month. While there weren’t noticeable changes in his shot volume at that turning point, there was in the location with him concentrating his attempts between the circles and finding more success.

That brings us to this year. While he quickly tallied a goal and four assists in his first four games, Zibanejad only net five goals in his first 28 games this season. Over that stretch, he was still earning points, with 10 primary assists and six secondary.

Before he regained that scoring touch, eight of those 16 assists came off Chris Kreider’s goals. That’s his most frequent linemate at even strength and on the power play, and over that span of games the winger net 17 goals on his way to becoming one of the league’s leading scorers.

So with a hot hand like Kreider skating alongside him, there was less pressure on Zibanejad — especially since he was still cashing in with those setups.

Still, his results fell short of the offence he was generating; he was expected to be closer to nine goals in all situations at that point before accounting for his finishing talent.

Across those first 28 games, Zibanejad wasn’t the most frequent shooter in New York — a position he’s generally held in his tenure. His attempts put him third on the team, behind Artemi Panarin and Filip Chytil. And those shots were only connecting on goal 52 per cent of the time.

Zibanejad was, however, making the most of his shots by driving to the quality areas of the ice; he led the team in all situations with 9.04 slot attempts per 60. The heat map below shows just how concentrated his shooting was between the face-off dots — the area he found so much success in the second half of 2020-21.

Much of that shooting came on the man-advantage where he led the team in shot attempts and slot shots. Positioning obviously plays into that, because despite a short shift to the left circle to shake up the man-advantage in October, he often played the slot (with Panarin on his left, Ryan Strome his right, Kreider at the net-front and Adam Fox back at the point). Despite playing a role he thrived in the last two seasons, he just wasn’t connecting.

And at 5-on-5, he wasn’t shooting as much as usual — or as much as his teammates. His shot rate landed him seventh on the team and second on his line, behind Kreider. And Zibanejad passes often preceded those cycle shots from Kreider; he was among the best in New York with his puck movement, both in terms of volume and quality.

Roster construction may have contributed to this, since that duo doesn’t have the same balance on the right as years past without Pavel Buchnevich’s playmaking. This year in particular, Kreider’s game has slanted way closer to shooting than passing, while the coaches have experimented with a couple of right-wings to complete the line. So whether it was a conscious decision by Zibanejad to become the passer for balance, or the preference given his shooting luck and the winger’s hot streak, it showed in his results earlier this season.

Dec. 15 marked the flip in Zibanejad’s scoreline. It lined up with a change in the team’s power play formation. Panarin left the previous game with an injury, moving the centre back to the left circle. While he didn’t click in that position earlier in the season (which may be because it was clear that he was the primary shooting threat on that unit), his right-handed shot had been successful throughout his Rangers’ tenure ahead of Panarin’s arrival there.

And he quickly found that scoring touch from the left side of the ice that game.

Now, he’s up to 14 goals over his last 21 games with eight of those coming on the power play — most of which have come from the left. The heat map below shows his all situation shooting since December 15, which is clearly highlighted by the power play influence from the circle.

When Panarin returned to the lineup in late December, the Rangers did shift back to their initial power play formation. But they quickly moved the centre back to the left circle to keep feeding his one-timer and the winger shifted to the right — putting Panarin in prime position to thread Zibanejad a royal-road pass.

Compared to the first 28 games of the season, Zibanejad’s slot shots have decreased over the last 21 games. His shot rate, however, has increased by about 14 attempts per 60 which lands him sixth in the league over that span. And, his rate of one-timers puts him third among skaters with at least 50 minutes on the man-advantage over the stretch, trailing only David Pastrnak and Alex Ovechkin.

Zibanejad’s always used his one-timer in New York, even when he wasn’t stationed in the circle consistently. But since Dec. 15, he’s increased it even more which bodes well for his scoring considering it’s one of the most dangerous shot types — especially at the shooting angle from his off-wing. It’s even tougher to stop him when he has two skillful passers in Panarin and Fox setting him up.

Panarin, on the flip side, went from 14.8 one-timers per 60 to 3.67; now the righty is in a better position to set up a one-timer than take it. However, he’s maintained his shot attempt rate from the first quarter of the season without it. That’s key seeing as the team wasn’t shooting from that side of the ice nearly as much. As he showed against Ottawa this past weekend, he can still rip it from there to give them a more multi-dimensional look since defenders are going to be focused on that left circle.

At 5-on-5, Zibanejad’s having better results in the goal column, too. There hasn’t been a noticeable swing in his shot rate, or even locations. And Kreider hasn’t picked up his passing in the offensive zone either compared to the first quarter of the season. Instead it was a matter of rebounding from a start that fell below expectations; now on the season as a whole, his results have evened out with expectations.

What trends down generally comes back up, and Zibanejad was due to get back to his scoring ways. But that shift back to the left circle gave him the kickstart the leading centre appears to have needed, and his finishing has trickled into 5-on-5 play. Now, a team that needs consistent scoring can roll out two threats on the ice at even strength in Kreider and Zibanejad, and an even more dynamic power play advantage.

Data via Sportlogiq

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