As we get to the 10-game mark of the NHL season, it's really no longer "early." If a good start has continued into the end of October, then it might not be just a flash of luck. And, if a bad start is still not being turned around, there might be a real problem to address.
It's Oct. 31, but there are no treats in this piece. We, and the fans of these teams involved, are feeling a level of concern with the way things have gone so far.
Here are four spooky starts to the season and how they may shape the month of November and beyond.
At 3-3-1, St. Louis' start hasn't drawn the same sort of heat as Calgary's, which actually drew boos from the home crowd last week when the Blues shut out the Flames 3-0 in the Saddledome. But that .500 record in a small sample belies some troubling individual performances and underlying trends.
Let's compare the Blues to the Flames, who are in full-on panic mode. Eric Francis wrote about Calgary's struggles coming out of the Heritage Classic, highlighted by the fact they've gone nearly three consecutive games without a goal at 5-on-5 — not good at all. But the Blues are right there with the Flames in terms of how badly they've struggled at even-strength offence. Both are bottom-four teams in 5-on-5 goals for per 60 minutes. Making it far worse for St. Louis, though, is the fact its power play is at the bottom of the league (at 4.8 per cent!), which drags its all-situations offence to 31st — better than only San Jose — at 1.86 goals per game.
Only one Blues player, Brandon Saad, has scored more than once — and he has two on the season. Jordan Binnington, a question mark coming in after a few years of trending downhill, has been good enough that he's distracting from a soft team defensive start, too. At even-strength, the Blues are second-worst in shots allowed and a bottom-10 team in expected goals against — but 12th in actual goals against. Thank the goalie. If he can recapture that Stanley Cup-season magic, then perhaps the Blues can overachieve here, but we'll see. Binnington's last start was a 5-0 loss (on 35 shots) against the Canucks, and St. Louis gets Colorado and New Jersey this week.
The two highest-paid players on the Calgary Flames
Oh, no. We're not going to just mention the Flames in passing and then let them off the hook.
This looks too much like last season to not be concerned. The hope was that with fresh eyes, a new coach, new approach and lighter atmosphere, the Flames could rebound into the playoffs after taking a year off. They lost so many close games last season that, theoretically, a little luck would be all they needed.
That luck is still spookily absent.
There are a few problem areas here for Calgary, but what they needed more than anything was a bounce back from $10.5-million man Jonathan Hubderdeau, who crashed by 60 points in his first season as a Flame. So far in 2023-24, Huberdeau has a singular primary assist, two goals (none in five games) and a minus-10 that's third-worst among all NHL forwards.
The concern runs deeper with Nazem Kadri, a $7-million player and Calgary's second-highest-paid player signed the same off-season as Huberdeau, also struggling. In nine games, the centre has two points, breaking a season-starting goal drought at the Heritage Classic, and a minus-11 that's, you guessed it, second-worst among all NHL forwards.
Momentum toward keeping Noah Hanifin has reportedly receded again. As much as a player might question re-signing at this moment, the Flames also have to consider what makes sense for them. Right now, it seems they could have some problematic contracts on the books and, with the team in crisis again, have to be wary of committing too much more.
Here's a scary thought: at what point does it make more sense for management to start planning on how to have a competitive team when the new arena opens in three or four years?
It was supposed to be easier this time.
OK, we didn't expect the Sabres would immediately become a division champion or top-tier Stanley Cup contender this season, but we did think they were going to turn a corner. Heck, just a couple weeks ago, we were writing about how all the long-term contracts they've committed to their young core early was setting them up for smashing success down the line.
At this time last season, the Sabres teased some playoff promise. In early November 2022, we were writing about Buffalo's 7-3-0 start and how Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin had taken over as productive leaders. But we also were careful to remind about the team's historical trend of taking a November nosedive — and after that story was published, the Sabres lost eight in a row.
Coming into this season, we thought we knew that the Sabres would start with that same promise, but avoid the losing skid. However, a 4-5-0 start has them at the bottom of a competitive division and another November swoon could utterly sink their season.
They haven't won two in a row yet, but also haven't lost two in a row since the first week of the season. Goalies Devon Levi and Eric Comrie have both gotten banged up already, but then again, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen shut out the Avalanche on Sunday in what was the team's best effort yet.
Maybe that was the start of them turning the corner. Maybe, at a time on the calendar when past Sabres teams have stalled, this one will begin its push. They'll get Philadelphia twice this week before rolling into Toronto Saturday night, then Carolina, Minnesota and Pittsburgh next week. There's an opportunity to make a statement over this stretch.
The Los Angeles Kings' netminding
Trying to hang with the defending champions in their own division, the Kings' biggest risk coming into the season was their set-up in net. Pheonix Copley returned after he played 37 games, but trade-deadline pickup Joonas Korpisalo left for Ottawa in free agency. In his place, the Kings signed Ottawa's former starter let go via free agency, Cam Talbot.
It's obvious why the Kings have tried to do it this way. The two goalies combined make $2.5 million against the cap and, with contracts expiring at the end of the season, Los Angeles has freedom to try something else next season. Talbot has been effective at times in his career, though whether in Edmonton, Minnesota or Ottawa, he's not been able to hold a No. 1 job. He's also 36 now, coming off an .898 save percentage season.
The Kings are off to a 4-4-2 start, so there are no alarms going off for the NHL's 11th-overall team. However, what they've been to this point is the NHL's best offence, averaging 4.38 goals per game and one of its better defences, averaging 27.6 shots against per game and a top-five team by expected goals against at 5-on-5.
They also have the league's worst 5-on-5 save percentage.
Talbot has made five starts and allowed at least three goals in four of them. Copley has a goals-against average approaching 5.00. We all know where this kind of uncertainty in the crease gets you come playoff time and, if this continues much longer, it's going to have to be addressed.
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