Now that the dust has settled after an exciting World Junior Championship it’s time to reset and get ready for what is sure to be an exciting 2023 in the hockey world.
Busy January
1. Jan. 10 marks the annual trade deadline for the CHL. All three Canadian Major Junior leagues have the same deadline day.
2. There has been a ton of movement already. Recent Team Canada gold medalists have been included in several trades. As of this writing these are some Team Canada names who have been moved:
• Owen Beck (OHL) – Mississauga to Peterborough
• Ethan del Mastro (OHL) – Mississauga to Sarnia
• Colton Dach (WHL) – Kelowna to Seattle
• Zach Ostapchuk (WHL) – Vancouver to Winnipeg
• Olen Zellweger (WHL) – Everett to Kamloops
3. Shane Wright was re-assigned to Kingston (OHL) from the Seattle Kraken. He will be traded to a contending team before the deadline.
4. Brandt Clarke was re-assigned to Barrie (OHL) by the LA Kings. The Colts are positioning themselves for a potential playoff run in the Eastern Conference of the OHL.
5. Several NHL teams have started their mid-season hockey operations meetings. Generally, the amateur scouting staff meets ahead of the pro scouts. There are some teams, however, who prefer to bring both departments to their team headquarters at the same time.
6. One of the more interesting presentations that takes place at meetings comes from the “Player Development Department.” I always looked forward to hearing from Bryan McCabe when I was in Florida. McCabe would provide our group with honest feedback about what he sees as the strengths and weaknesses of our prospect pool.
7. It’s the job of the amateur scouting departments to draft players who fit the mold of what the GM is trying to build. Scouts scout. Player development takes over after the draft. It’s best that scouts don’t fall too in love with prospects and allow player development to do their job without interacting too much with players.
8. Teams will be starting to position themselves for the trade deadline. Most will have already begun the process of evaluating their own draft capital in relation to the depth of the upcoming draft.
9. The process that takes the most amount of time for the pro scouts is organizational depth analysis – most importantly their own but also across the league.
Top Prospects Games
The 2023 BioSteel All-American Game will take place at the USA Hockey Arena in Plymouth, Michigan on Monday, Jan. 16. Players from the USNTDP and USHL will participate.
The annual Canadian Hockey League Top Prospects Game will take place in Langley, British Columbia, on Wednesday, Jan. 25. Players from all three CHL Leagues (OHL, QMJHL, WHL) will be competing.
2023 Draft Class
In advance of the trade deadline it’s important to once again point out the depth of the 2023 draft class.
Not every draft class provides the same quality. This group of prospects has been targeted as an elite pool of players for several years, and they are living up to the hype.
Teams will be very hesitant about trading their first-round picks in this draft. Of course, some teams have already traded those picks. Teams with multiple picks in this draft are going to benefit and potentially kick start their “rebuilds” or “resets” quicker than the competition.
Connor Bedard is the ultimate prize, but the second layer of prospects are exceptional as well.
Following the games in Plymouth and Langley I will provide my own personal draft list for our readers to consider (and enthusiastically dissect!).
Canadian NHL Team Draft Capital (Pre-Trade Deadline 2023)
(Note: The Florida Panthers' first round pick that Montreal owns is NOT lottery protected)
Money in, money out
I recognize fans are hoping for a blockbuster trade or two to put their team over the top this season. Some big names could be moved.
Players like Bo Horvat (VAN), Patrick Kane (CHI), Jonathan Toews (CHI), Jakob Chychrun (AZ), John Klingberg (ANA), and Ryan O’Reilly (STL) would add varying degrees of depth to a contending team in a trade.
This is when the capologists provide the most value to hockey operations.
Keeping in mind that a team trading a player can only absorb 50 per cent of the value of the contract, it makes it difficult to conclude a transaction without involving a third team (especially when teams are at, or near, the cap ceiling).
The third team serves as a temporary “pit stop” in the process, but an important one. They are able to also absorb 50 per cent of what’s left on the contract before moving the player to his final destination.
For example:
If the Toronto Maple Leafs wanted to acquire Patrick Kane, from the Chicago Blackhawks, they would very likely require a third team.
Kane’s cap hit is $10.5 million. The Hawks can absorb 50 per cent of the cap hit, leaving $5.25 million on the table. The teams would have to find a “pit stop” for Kane’s contract, with the third team retaining another 50 per cent of the $5.25 million – potentially making the contract affordable for the Leafs in relation to their salary structure.
The cost in this scenario will range wildly. The Hawks will be looking for a first-round pick, plus more. The third team will also be looking for picks or prospects in the transaction.
Buckle up everyone! It’s going to be a fun and interesting couple months!
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