How do you beat the Stanley Cup contending Winnipeg Jets?

There were times in previous seasons where something with the Winnipeg Jets just seemed … off. It wasn’t like they didn’t have talent or structure, but something intangible just seemed to be missing. For fans watching, there was this frustration at the vibe, like … I know there’s a good team in there, we’ve seen it before, so why can’t we get it consistently?

Over the past few years, successful Jets starts have waned down the stretch, and those fans have been let down.

This year, that vibe has been flipped on its head. Win, lose, or draw, the Jets are a team that works, their best players have committed to a 200-foot game, and buy-in to the coaching plan seems universal. Whether this new vibe is related to key changes in personnel – Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois are no longer prominent pieces – or not is a matter of pure speculation for those of us outside the dressing room.

Regardless what you believe, there’s no denying that when you have smart, talented players who believe in the way they’re playing, you get good results. Good results, like say, 34 straight games where your opponent scores three or fewer goals.

That has to be the most unheralded, under-reported, under-discussed NHL stat of this season and maybe more. Thirty-four straight games of three goals against or less is absurd, just one shy of the modern day record set in 2015 by the Minnesota Wild, but let’s put a huge footnote on that: the Wild did it in the NHL's lowest-scoring season (5.42 total goals per game) since the 2004-05 lockout some 20 years ago. The Jets are doing it during an offensive boom where there's a 6.26 goals per game average, as well as the most power play opportunities per contest in a full decade.

To hammer home how consistent they've been on defence, the Jets have allowed the fewest goals against in the NHL at 2.29, while second place (the Canucks) is a good distance back at 2.49. Vancouver has given up four goals or more on three separate occasions going back a month, and the other best defensive teams are no better, with Boston allowing four-plus against four times this month, and the LA Kings doing it five times. (Heck, Winnipeg's upcoming opponent – the Leafs - are a playoff team that's given up four-plus goals 21 times through 45 games.)

I have family that loves the Jets, as well as a close friend, and so I put it out to them: do you believe in this year’s Jets team? They took that question to their fan community, including numerous season ticket-holders, to which I got back answers with a few themes:

The Jets are a joy to watch, turning the Dubois problem into a solution has been a huge boon, and it’s fair to trust their defensive play and absurdly good goaltending. They believe more than in years past. There’s also lots of love for Nikolaj Ehlers out there, who continues to put up absurd per-60 stats in the minutes he plays.

There’s always confidence in what Connor Hellebuyck does, but the trust in the defensive play in front of him is stronger than ever, which I can confirm is validated by the numbers.

SportLogiq has the Jets as the third-best team in the NHL at denying slot shots, they’re the best team in the league at limiting rush chances against (just 5.3 per game), and they’re fifth in all of limiting cycle chances, inner slot shots, and the big one, high-danger chances.

But still, the fanbase has been burned by past Jets teams getting to this sort of standings position and then faltering, so everyone seems a bit cautious and aware there’s room for improvements. The main theme around what has to improve was the need for a second line centre to take the forward group from “very solid” to “stacked,” as the third line of Niederreiter-Lowry-Appleton is about as good as a third line centre gets.

My own concern with the Jets is related to their need for one more offensive piece: when you go from comparing yourself to the rest of the league in the regular season to the best playoff teams, perception changes. I tend to believe that the elite, game-breaking players are what pulls your team through the big moments in the post-season. There are exceptions, but typically the top teams have enough offensive game breakers to pull them through when the game tightens up. Winnipeg's offence is 12^th in goals for and 14^th in expected goals for which, by the time you cut it down to 16 playoff teams, no longer feels like an advantage. They're also 24^th in high danger chances, so they’ve still got work to do on creating opportunities.

That said, there is hope. While most recent Cup champions have had some elite offensive players (whether Nathan MacKinnon or Nikita Kucherov/Brayden Point/Steven Stamkos or Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin, etc.), the Vegas Golden Knights were a good example of a team that could score enough without relying too heavily on any one guy.  It’s possible that mold could also work for the Jets with the addition of another scoring threat.

In the end, when I look at their roster and try to assess their odds to take this regular season success deeper, I keep landing on one question: How do you beat them?

If the Jets manage to be a team that’s all about work ethic and buy-in from a bunch of proven veteran guys, if they continue to allow as little against as any team in the league, and if they have one of the few best goalies in the league, how do you beat them four times in seven games? They’re going to have to score, of course, but if you can’t put them away, won’t they eventually get it done?

If I see anything for Winnipeg this season as they ramp up for the playoffs it's that they’ll be a team that plays in a lot of close games – playoff overtime, anyone? – and they’ve got enough guys who just need one quick look to end those games. Connor is one of the league’s best finishers. Maybe their beloved Ehlers will have bigger moments awaiting him yet. Cole Perfetti is on pace for 26 goals at just 22 years old, could he take another step in the season’s back-half?

As we head into the All-Star break, the Jets will be favoured in back-to-back games against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team on the opposite end of the vibes and defensive play spectrum. Regardless of the outcome, the Jets will go into the second half as one of the league’s best teams.

With these Jets the burden of proof has officially switched from “they have to prove they can win” to a challenge for other teams: “you have to prove you can beat them.”