How Vilardi's injury impacts Jets heading into playoffs

WINNIPEG — Gabriel Vilardi came agonizingly close to his first injury-free season.

Chronic back issues hindered him for three years after he was drafted. Last season, his first in Winnipeg, was shortened to 47 games due to an MCL sprain out of the gate, followed by an enlarged spleen later in the year.

From the start of training camp, Vilardi made it known that he was set on playing a full 82-game season.

And then poof. Out week-to-week with an upper-body injury.

“This is actually what we talked about (and) was so upset about last night when we found out,” Scott Arniel told reporters Monday morning. “He’s done such a fantastic job (with) his summer training, to do some specific things so that he can hope to have an 82-game season.”

Arniel didn’t provide any details on the injury, other than that it had nothing to do with Vilardi briefly exiting Sunday’s game against Buffalo after taking a puck to the ear.

“You guys can go find it yourself but it was kind of a freak situation,” Arniel said.

Vilardi did take an awkward fall in his final shift against Buffalo.

A vague week-to-week timeline is all the more ominous considering the Jets are approaching the final three weeks of the regular season.

Regardless of how long he ends up being out, losing the 25-year-old is a crushing blow for the Jets.

Vilardi has already registered career-highs in goals (27) and points (61) through 71 games — putting him on pace for 31 goals and 70 points across an 82-game season. The six-foot-three right winger is one of the NHL’s most dangerous net front scorers — ranking in the 99th percentile for high-danger goals (22) — and is tied for ninth in power-play goals (12).

But the Jets aren’t just going to miss him for his scoring ability.

What this means for Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor

Scheifele and Connor’s career years wouldn’t be happening without Vilardi.

He’s been instrumental to the top line's success.

Vilardi was the missing puzzle piece that the inseparable duo so desperately needed as a big-bodied winger who is elite at protecting the puck, capable of extending plays along the wall and sustaining offensive zone time off the cycle.

“He’s a modern day power forward,” one NHL assistant coach told Sportsnet.ca “Perfect complement to those two. Knows how to get open and uses his size to establish space in tough areas. His hockey sense allows him to read off smart players.”

5-on-5 on-ice impact

Vilardi’s puck control in tight areas and strong stickwork have been key to many of Scheifele and Connor’s goals.

“That’s probably why I’m looking at (Alex Iafallo), who’s kind of a meat and potato guy,” Arniel said of Vilardi’s replacement.

In Iafallo, Arniel provides the top line with an elite forechecker that can win one-on-one battles and crash the net. Iafallo ranks in the 86th percentile in five-on-five high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes (4.27). He also spent some time alongside Scheifele and Connor last season after Vilardi went down with his MCL injury.

That said, there’s a clear drop-off in playmaking ability from Vilardi to the 31-year-old Iafallo. It also doesn’t help that Iafallo will be playing on his off-side, which makes it harder to make a seam pass after winning a battle.

Ideally, Winnipeg would have a right-shot playmaking winger that they could bump up the depth chart. But their only other right-shot winger is Mason Appleton, a player who has registered just four points over the last two months.

While Nino Niederreiter is a conceivable option on paper, the 32-year-old isn’t as effective as Vilardi or Iafallo along the wall. He’s not lauded for his passing, either.

What this means for the power play

Vilardi's playmaking and scoring down low have helped the Jets become a matchup nightmare on the power play, forcing opponents to spread their attention beyond just Scheifele and Connor.

Recently, teams have started to key in on Vilardi. Through the Jets' first 51 games, they were converting on 33 per cent of their power plays (first) and Vilardi scored 11 of his 12 power play goals through that time. Over the last 20 games, the Jets’ power play has tapered off, converting on just 21.8 per cent of their chances (19th), which directly correlates with Vilardi being given less room to operate.

Here's a look at how his shot volume has declined over that period.

Gabriel Vilardi power play production per 60

Iafallo is set to replace Vilardi on the top unit, though it remains to be seen how long that lasts.

One has to think, at some point, the Jets will elect to put a bigger forward in front of the net to create traffic and pounce on rebounds.

Niederreiter seems like a sensible Plan B to Iafallo for that very reason. Or maybe Adam Lowry, who can win draws and be a complete bully in front of the net. While those two options could generate a few garbage goals, neither player possesses the soft hands, passing or vision that Vilardi does.

One could argue that Cole Perfetti, who has started to really shine on the second unit, deserves a promotion. The problem with that, however, is that Perfetti being on the top unit could lead to them operating more on the perimeter and straying away from high-danger areas.

Whether they find a viable band-aid solution or not, there’s no doubt the Jets' power play unit just became significantly less lethal.

What does this mean for the Jets' playoff chances?

Well, we don’t know yet.

But any scenario where the Jets are playing meaningful games without Vilardi is a daunting task.

The Jets pride themselves on being a hard-nosed, defensively sound team that aims to edge out opponents in 2-1 games. Their first line and power play will be key in any playoff series but the pressure now rises even more on the second unit of Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov and Nikolaj Ehlers. Frankly, much of the offensive burden will fall on Connor and Scheifele, who are at their best with Vilardi.

Losing Vilardi for the playoffs would weaken their most effective offensive weapons. And indirectly, it’d put a lot more pressure on Connor Hellebuyck to steal games.

All advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and NHL Edge