If Hanifin, Lindholm, Backlund don't return, what would the Flames do next?

With uncertainty swirling around the Calgary Flames, it feels like general manager Craig Conroy is in line for a busy few weeks…at least.

Defenceman Noah Hanifin has reportedly informed the team he won’t be re-signing with the Flames when his contract expires in just over a year. Deals are on the table and negotiations are continuing with Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund, but their futures in Calgary are cloudy at best.

So what happens if all three of Hanifin, Lindholm, and Backlund, each with one year remaining on their deals, opt not to sign back?

It’s a reality the Flames have to be, and are, prepared for.

Are big trades coming?

The belief is that the door still isn’t closed on the trio returning, specifically Lindholm and Backlund. Negotiations are ongoing and, in Lindholm’s case, big money and term are on the table. But it’s also understood Calgary won’t hesitate on making deals if there isn't progress being made on extensions.

The first flashpoint opportunity is at next week’s NHL Draft in Nashville. Brad Treliving, Conroy’s predecessor, made a habit of making franchise altering moves during draft week. With all 32 GMs in the same place for the better part of a week, no one will be surprised if the Flames make a significant trade or two at one of the league’s premier events.

But multiple sources have reiterated the importance of not rushing these moves if they have to be done.

The 2023 draft class is considered to be the deepest in years. As such, you can understand the temptation to make a deal next week. Both Hanifin and Lindholm would almost certainly command first round picks in return, for instance. The strength of this year’s draft can’t be the main determining factor in making a deal, though, and the Flames know it.

Calgary wants to make sure they’ve left no stone unturned in keeping their players. And if a trade, or trades, become necessary, Conroy wants to make sure he gets them right. That includes possibly waiting further into the summer.

And if it comes to that, we’ll be talking about big time moves. Lindholm is a Selke level centre. Hanifin is 26, has almost 600 NHL games to his name, and would slot into any team’s top four. If the Flames have to trade them, the returns will be substantial.

Would this mean a rebuild is coming?

This is the most fascinating question for me.

Calgary was in a similar position last year when Matthew Tkachuk informed them he wouldn’t be re-signing at the end of his contract. And the deal that sent Tkachuk to Florida was certainly not of the “rebuild” variety, with established NHLers Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar the main pieces coming back.

But if the Flames are forced into multiple trades involving core players this year, chasing “right now” returns feels unwise. Despite Huberdeau’s miserable first year with the team, Calgary still pulled a rabbit out of a hat on the Tkachuk deal. Trades like that aren’t the norm.

So, call it a rebuild, reshaping on the fly, retooling, or any other pro sports buzz word: the Flames will very likely have to target high picks, top prospects, and young NHLers if these deals come to pass.

And that isn’t a bad thing.

What does this mean for other players?

Hanifin, Lindholm, and Backlund aren’t the only impact players entering the final year of their contract. But how Conroy approaches those three players will go a long way in determining the fates of others.

With 34 goals and 73 points, Tyler Toffoli was Calgary’s leading scorer last season and has also made the team aware he doesn't plan on re-signing. While he expressed interest in re-signing at April's locker clean out day, Toffoli is also 31 years old and wants to win now.

Defenceman Chris Tanev is also entering the final year of his contract. While the returns wouldn't be as high compared to Hanifin or Lindholm, Tanev and Toffoli would be sought after around the league. In both cases, you could make the argument their value could be as high or higher once the season starts and/or closer to the trade deadline, compared to this summer.

Due mostly to their ages and “core” status, making a finite decision on Lindholm and Hanifin this summer is the priority. It would feel like far less of a missed opportunity if Calgary started the season with a few of their over-30 pending UFAs still on the roster.

Of all the players on soon-to-be expiring contracts, defenceman Nikita Zadorov feels the most likely to extend. He talked about telling his wife how he’d like to stay with the team “for life” at the end of the season. Zadorov has played the best hockey of his career with the Flames and, knowing how the past few years have gone, keeping players who want to be in Calgary is an important consideration.

Conroy and the Flames will be busy next week in Nashville. They’ll be busy in the weeks following the draft and free agency. And they’ll probably still have big player personnel decision to make once the puck drops in October.

Fans in Calgary are braced for all kinds of change. Buckle up.