William Nylander has spent a good portion of his Maple Leafs career acting as a punching bag for a frustrated fan base.
He has been an easy target, whether it’s because of his flashy style of play or the contract dispute that spilled into the first few months of the 2018-19 season. But even Nylander’s most vocal critics have struggled to find fault with his offensive game this season.
After a five-point performance Saturday against the Flames, Nylander is on pace for a career-high 48 goals and 93 points.
“He’s been consistent with his play on offence and how he pushes the chances that he generates,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters after the team’s 5-4 overtime win. “Last season, he set a new standard for himself. As I’ve said in the past, he’s got a long ways to go still in terms of what his potential is and what he can do, and you’re seeing that.”
Nylander posted excellent underlying numbers last season, and not much has changed there. For example, Nylander has produced 3.35 scoring chances per 20 minutes through 29 games, compared to 3.75 last season, which ranked sixth among 532 forwards who played a minimum of 100 minutes. His expected goal rate has also remained relatively steady — 0.41 per 20 this season versus 0.46 last season.
Nylander’s overall ice time per game is virtually the same — 18:17 in 2022-23 compared to 18:16 in 2021-22 — but he is averaging 48 more seconds on the power play this season. The Leafs’ top unit — Nylander, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and either Morgan Rielly or Rasmus Sandin — has been one of the best in the NHL. Those four forwards have scored 15 goals with Rielly, fourth-most among five-man units, and four with Sandin. Nylander has benefited from that, recording 13 of his 33 points on the man advantage.
Another reason for Nylander’s strong start is that he is doing more to drive play. Nylander said Saturday that he has focused on improving his skating, which has provided more space for him to create chances. That improvement is reflected in the number of controlled entries that he’s averaging — 6.29 per 20, up from 5.34 a season ago.
The Leafs have generated 49 chances off of Nylander entries (1.85 per 20), tied for 21st out of 430 qualified forwards.
Keefe said Saturday that “(Nylander) can and should be in that top elite tier of players in the league, and he’s working his way there.” If Nylander can sustain this level of play, he could get there by the end of the season. Offensively, Nylander’s numbers compare favourably to Marner’s from last season, when he finished with 97 points in 72 games.
“In terms of the offence and consistently making plays and helping our team win games, he’s been very good there,” Keefe said. “(Matthews) and (Marner) have really established themselves in that very exclusive top tier in the league. (Nylander) should be right there hanging with those guys.”
Data from Sportlogiq
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