Jets Mailbag: Tipping point quickly approaching for trade deadline decisions

WINNIPEG – With the Winnipeg Jets dropping three consecutive games, it was clear based on the submissions for the February mailbag that the mood of many fans has shifted to next-year country.

There are 31 games to go in the regular season, including Friday’s tilt with the best team in the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche.

Although the Jets enter the weekend six points behind the Edmonton Oilers in the chase for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, the March 21 trade deadline is creeping up and the Jets are one of the teams many observers are going to be watching.

What will the Jets decide to do?

It seems abundantly clear they aren’t going to be doing a lot of buying, at least not in the traditional sense, but it’s possible that going into selling mode doesn’t focus on just draft picks and futures.

If GM Kevin Cheveldayoff does decide to put up the "For sale" sign, the focus is going to be on the pending unrestricted free agents, especially because Cheveldayoff recently said there haven’t been negotiations held with either Andrew Copp or Paul Stastny.

Of course, that could change with one phone call, but even if the Jets can close the gap over the coming weeks, Cheveldayoff must weigh the offers from other GMs if there is not an extension in place for either of those forwards.

The goal for the Jets must be to find a scenario where they can try to improve in both the shorter and longer term.

That’s not to say the Jets won’t be looking to replenish some draft capital – since they have only five picks in the 2022 NHL Draft after moving the second- and fourth-round picks in deals with the Washington Capitals for Brenden Dillon and the Vegas Golden Knights for Stastny, respectively – and prospects, but the primary goal will likely be to find players who fit into the middle six and have some team control.

With that in mind, let’s dive into the February edition of the Jets mailbag:

I’ve seen the sentiment the Jets should go into full-on tanking mode, but that’s not going to happen.

This is a retool-on-the-fly scenario. Even if the Jets were comfortable throwing in the towel on this season (and they aren’t), only the fortunate bounce of the lottery ball would be enough to help the organization jump high enough to get a higher pick in the first round of the 2022 NHL Draft.

Like many, I love my Jets. But it feels obvious we’re not going to make the playoffs. 

Barring a miracle, how close to the deadline does Kevin Cheveldayoff wait to make a move re: Copp/Stastny/Nathan Beaulieu and any other pieces he feels it’s time to move?

@doctorb22

The timing is somewhat complicated, first because the Jets still believe they can make a push, but also because many NHL teams are either right up against the ceiling of the salary cap or dipping into long-term injury reserve (like the Jets are).

The easy answer is that if a team steps up with a sizeable offer and makes it impossible for Cheveldayoff to say no, that would be the impetus to make a deal. Brad Treliving and the Calgary Flames made a pre-emptive strike by acquiring Tyler Toffoli, but the thing about that deal is that the high-scoring forward comes with two more years of term. The Flames conceivably have him for three playoff runs.

Of course, some GMs prefer to try to get ahead of the market to help incoming players have additional time to get comfortable in their new surroundings. But this is also a high-stakes game of chicken and some folks believe that the closer one gets to a deadline, the higher the offer for those aforementioned players, the more likely it is that a deal gets made. And the best way for the offers to increase is to have a higher number of teams bidding for those players.

Beaulieu is in a different boat, since any contending team that considers picking him up is doing so as insurance for a long playoff run. He’d be brought in as a No. 7 or No. 8 guy – remembering that many franchises believe you need to be able to be 10 D-men deep to win four rounds.

As for other pieces Cheveldayoff considers moving, those hockey trades he referenced during his post-All-Star Game availability are easier to make during the off-season but obviously can’t be ruled out completely in case there is a fit with another franchise that comes into clearer focus during the coming weeks.

What do you think of Owen Tippett to the Jets? The Florida Panthers are open to moving him and the Jets are beyond thin on the right side. @DJ_BiffWPG

Tippett is going to be drawing considerable interest in the coming weeks, and you would expect the Jets to be one of the teams that work themselves into the equation. The Panthers are looking for pieces to try to push them over the top.

Tippett, the 10th-overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, has piled up four assists in two games since he was assigned to the Charlotte Checkers of the American Hockey League. In addition to being a right-handed-shooting winger (a rarity in the Jets organization), Tippett would bring some size (he’s 6-foot-1, 207 pounds) and secondary scoring ability as someone who produced plenty in junior and was nearly a point-per-game player in the AHL during his first pro season. He’s also a young player who would be under team control at a reasonable contract number in terms of his AAV, which is a factor for a cap ceiling team such as the Jets. It would not be a surprise if Tippett is being looked at by the Jets as the centrepiece in a potential deal for Copp.

We need cap space for Pierre-Luc Dubois, thus can assume both Andrew Copp and Paul Stastny will be shopped. But will Nate Schmidt? Based on salary? And need to open at least one defence roster spot? And you mentioned Owen Tippett, what are some other options to enhance the bottom six? @Frankd8372772

There’s going to be ample interest for both Copp and Stastny on the market, though some of the contending teams may need the Jets to retain salary to make room for those players. As for creating additional cap space and perhaps opportunity on defence, this issue is also a complicated one for the Jets. One of the appealing things for Cheveldayoff during the off-season was that he found D-men with term to bring into the fold – which was a priority when you consider how thin the NHL defence corps was last season.

Both Schmidt and Brenden Dillon have helped the Jets and made them deeper at the position group that was the weakest last season, but it didn’t translate into vastly better results. And with several defence prospects knocking on the door for full-time duty, there is not enough opportunity to go around for the number of players who are looking for ice time.

So, that does appear to make it likely that at least one defenceman could be on the move, either before the deadline or certainly during the off-season. Schmidt isn’t necessarily going to be that guy though, for multiple reasons. He’s come in and brought a positive attitude that is infectious, plus he plays the right side (his off side) and most of the surplus in the organization is on the left side. The other complicating factor is that Schmidt is under contract for $5.95 million for another three seasons. When playing on the top pairing with Josh Morrissey or a shutdown pairing with Dillon, that number is much easier to swallow. However, Schmidt is being used on the third pairing, which makes things reminiscent to a time when the Jets third pairing was often Tyler Myers and Dmitry Kulikov (who carried a combined AAV of $10 million). That’s more of a luxury item, though it was easier for the Jets to handle when they had highly skilled forwards contributing on entry-level deals.

As for your question about trade targets, Jake DeBrusk of the Boston Bruins seems like a potential target and Mathieu Joseph of the Tampa Bay Lightning would also make sense for the Jets to pursue. This subject will be explored in much greater detail during the coming weeks as some of the suitors come into clearer focus, which will make it easier to identify possible returns.

How much weight should we put into trade rumours that don't involve unrestricted free agents? I can buy an Andrew Copp or Paul Statsny trade at the deadline, but should these Mark Scheifele/Brenden Dillon trade rumours be taken seriously? Or can we write them off as clickbait? Cole Grove

Trade rumours can occasionally be difficult to navigate, especially when they involve an organization like the Jets that prefers to keep things close to the vest and try to guard against leaks. But the reality is that sources around the game engage in conversations and things sometimes slip out, no matter how hard a team tries to keep talks private.

When it comes to Dillon, his name is out there because he plays a physical style that is coveted, especially come playoff time. Since former Jets blue-liner Ben Chiarot’s name is out there, it’s natural for folks to look for comparables, and Dillon would fit the bill. Dillon would also be attractive to contending teams because he’s under contract for two more seasons at $3.9 million, so the cap hit is a bit easier for teams to absorb.

However, for a Jets team that’s talked a lot about being tougher to play against, moving him so quickly after bringing him into the fold seems unlikely but not impossible. As for Scheifele, the only reason his name has come up of late is that he would bring back a substantial return if – if this is an extremely big if – the Jets were looking to make another foundational change, like the trade they made to acquire Dubois from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic. I don’t think the Jets and Scheifele are remotely close to a point where a separation is inevitable. He’s been a productive player for a long time and top-line centres don’t exactly grow on trees. This is a situation that will be monitored closely, but it’s far more likely that a potential deal of this magnitude would only be considered during the off-season, when the field is not as limited to teams in LTIR. Also, let’s not forget that one of the biggest reasons the Jets brought in Dubois was to pair him as a dynamic one-two punch down the middle.

I wonder if the $13 million paid to Nate Schmidt, Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo would have better return on a $9 million d-man and two $2 million guys instead of a 6, 4, 3 split.  Of course, where do we find the $9 million man??? @Ryan Wakshinski

Salary allocation is a tricky situation for any general manager. When the Jets enjoyed the best season in franchise history, a lot of money was invested on the back end and things worked out well. As mentioned earlier, those days also featured Laine and Kyle Connor playing on entry-level deals that allowed the Jets to maximize their value and invest a bit more on the back end. Also, when you consider the challenges the Jets had on defence during the two seasons after the unexpected departure of Dustin Byfuglien, it makes a lot of sense why they invested nearly $10 million per season bringing in Schmidt and Dillon to try to shore up an area of weakness.

The search for a No. 1 defenceman is an ongoing one for almost every team in the NHL and those guys get paid incredibly well – and for good reason, as they’re often in short supply and difficult to either sign in free agency or acquire in trade.

Your question is why I mentioned the Jets should have interest in pursuing Alex Pietrangelo in free agency before he signed with the Golden Knights. It’s one thing to identify a $9 million player – and the Jets definitely looked into what it would take to bring Pietrangelo in – but sometimes it’s another matter entirely to convince that player to sign on the dotted line. With Ville Heinola, Dylan Samberg, Johnny Kovacevic and Declan Chisholm all playing games this season, the Jets are going to re-evaluate how to optimize the group and the salary considerations could be a factor in those decisions.

When does Heinola ask for a trade if he has not already? Matt Robinson

It’s safe to say that the past two seasons have not unfolded the way Heinola would have envisioned, but that doesn’t automatically mean he’s looking for a change of scenery at this stage of the game.

As Jets interim head coach Dave Lowry pointed out when asked by reporters the other day in Dallas about Heinola, the Finnish blue-liner has taken strides this season in his all-around game, playing some important minutes in his eight games so far.

There have been a few hiccups, but there have also been plenty of moments that showcase the skills that will soon be on display with regularity – especially when it comes to puck movement and zone exits.

The offensive game is at an NHL level and the defensive game is improving and, much like the top prospects themselves, many fans want to hit fast forward and speed up the development process.

This is not an argument against Heinola getting more NHL time, that’s coming – and could be around the corner, based on what we’ve discussed earlier about potential trades – but having him playing 20-plus minutes and be used in all situations in the minors for a bit longer is only going to help the player.

He’s relied on heavily with the Moose, who have enjoyed a great season, and no matter what happens with the Jets, there should be an opportunity for Heinola and several other top prospects to be involved in a playoff run at the AHL level that will be valuable for development.

The theory that Heinola has nothing left to prove at the AHL level is a fallacy, even if he has performed at an incredibly high level there.

There is always value in playing meaningful games during the stretch run and then in the playoffs – though a return to the Jets is expected between that.

Saying the best way for Heinola to improve his defensive play is by playing against NHL players?

I have time for that theory, but the problem is that part of his on-the-job training is going to include making mistakes, sometimes in critical moments for a team that is teetering on the brink when it comes to its slim playoff chances.

So, if the Jets are more comfortable waiting a bit longer before making that transition makes sense to me.

Part of the issue with Heinola is that he burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old and showed some flashes immediately, including scoring his first NHL goal on Matt Murray.

Going home to Finland was probably the best thing for his development at the time, but the early NHL look leaves some feeling that it’s taking forever to become a regular, even though he’s only 20 years old.

Many top prospects are just getting their feet wet in the pro game at that age, so for me, Heinola remains ahead of the game and it’s clear that it won’t be long before he’s an impact player for the Jets – and not another NHL team.

Josh Morrissey spent all but one game during his 20-year-old season with the Moose and it certainly didn’t stunt his growth as a player; it allowed him to become a minute-muncher as an NHL rookie at 21.

Heinola appears to be on a similar path, even if there have been a few more stops and starts on his journey.

He’s got first-pairing potential and the Jets realize that, even if it appears they’re not rushing him into the lineup.

Might a change of address help both Bo Horvat and Mark Scheifele? David Smith @jetsriders66

This is a good example of trying to connect the dots that I can appreciate. However, this is an apples-to-oranges scenario. Horvat has one season before he can become an unrestricted free agent, while Scheifele has two more seasons before he reaches the same status. If – and, again, this is a big if – the Jets got to the point of being open to moving Scheifele, it would not be for a player who is that close to free agency. Bringing in a No. 1 centre would be the goal, but there would have to be more term attached. The Canucks also would like to keep their captain in the fold.

Would like to know how the Jets salary cap situation looks like after Bryan Little’s contract is over?? Is a crunch coming soon?? Vern Fecteau

Little still has two more seasons with a cap hit of $5.291 million on his contract, so the Jets salary cap situation figures to be similar for the next two seasons. Provided the Jets continue to be a cap-ceiling team, they will be looking to maximize the LTIR pool as best they can, just like they did this season and last. That doesn’t equate to a cap crunch as much as it will continue to require some salary-cap gymnastics for Jets management. However, after an extension with Dubois is complete, the Jets won’t have a bunch of cap space available next offseason, they’ll likely be looking to incorporate a few more prospects and also be looking for some low-risk value contracts in free agency as they work to upgrade the bottom-six forward group.