Jets storylines to watch in 2025: Can Perfetti become a driving force?

WINNIPEG — Rewind to the fall of 2023, when the Winnipeg Jets locked up Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck. 

The shocking rabbit-out-of-a-hat extensions silenced any chatter of a rebuild — something that many in this market had yearned for. And given the comments that came out of the joint press conference where the two put ink to paper, it was clear that Scheifele and Hellebuyck believed in what GM Kevin Cheveldayoff was selling. That Winnipeg could be a perennial contender with this core. 

But retaining Scheifele and Hellebuyck was just one (giant) piece of the puzzle.

There’s other factors — both internal and external — that’ll define whether this team can establish (and sustain) itself as a legitimate contender. And a lot of those are going to come to a head during the 2025 calendar year. 

We very well could be approaching the most high-stakes 12 months this franchise has seen in quite some time.

So, evaluating from that lens, let’s take a look at four things that will define the 2025 calendar year for this franchise.

Will Winnipeg acquire (useful) size on backend?

A lot of people seem to think Logan Stanley is only in the lineup because of where he was drafted. 

And while there’s no denying the six-foot-seven defender has gotten all this leeway over the years due to him being drafted in the first round, that’s not why he’s in the lineup. His size is. 

Winnipeg has one of the NHL’s smallest blue-lines and their biggest minute-munchers — Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo — make up an average height of six feet and 0.27 inches. That’s the second smallest top-three in the league. Come playoff time, you’re asking for trouble if you’re rolling out a top-four that has just one player (Dylan Samberg) that’s taller than six-foot-one. 

When we talk about an upgrade on Stanley in the lineup, we’re not talking about leveling up the bottom-pair. We’re talking about a player who boasts a physical component to their game but, contrary to Stanley, can also shoulder top-four usage and the tough assignments that come with it while also being a presence physically. 

With Morrissey and Samberg manning the top two left-handed spots, any reinforcements would need to be right-handed. Now, that’s a tall task, given that right-shot defencemen are always a highly coveted commodity. And for a franchise like Winnipeg, that hardly stands a chance at re-signing rentals, they can’t afford to pony up a plethora of assets for a stop-gap option. They need a medium to long-term solution. 

The sooner Cheveldayoff can find that, the better. Otherwise, he’ll have to go through the merry-go-round of trading a first annually to fill the team’s gaping hole. Or, see his team get outmuscled in the post-season.

Preparing for life without Ehlers

After 10 seasons in Winnipeg, it’s hard to foresee a world where Nikolaj Ehlers doesn’t test the waters in Free Agency.

Be it his power-play usage, or linemates at even strength — Ehlers has always been second fiddle here. Even with his promotion to the top power-play unit this year, the Danish forward is logging a career-low 15:26 minutes per night. 

Part of that can be attributed to Winnipeg’s second line being such a black hole offensively. According to Moneypuck.com, the Jets second line of Ehlers, Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti has generated 2.14 expected goals per 60 minutes — that ranks 50th out of the 54 forward lines that have played at least 150 minutes together this season. 

Teams will be lining up for the speedy winger, who's on pace for a career-high 75 points. Many of which will be promising him first-line deployment, too.

Winnipeg needs a contingency plan for life without Ehlers. Naturally, all eyes are going to turn to Brad Lambert and Nikita Chibrikov. 

Lambert, 21, undoubtedly has the most upside of the two and while he went scoreless in four NHL games this year — his footspeed could conceivably soften the blow of Ehlers’ departure. 

Chirbikov, 21, is capable of being an everyday NHL player. Not only did the Russian forward provide a jolt to the Jets top-six in four games this year — registering two goals and three points — but he proved his worth away from the puck with his hard-nosed forechecking and intensity. 

The thing is, even if both players take a step forward, assuming that one, let alone both, can solidify themselves as top-six forwards — ones that are capable of playing on a second-line of a contending team — is naive.

When sportsnet.ca talked to Scott Arniel back in November for a 1-on-1 conversation, the Jets coach spoke about the importance of not spoon feeding young players opportunities.

“If you look at some of the good teams around the league, they’ve had success because they’ve been able to mix their young guys in gradually,” Arniel said. “They’ve been able to let them grow.”

As hard as it may be — given the team’s struggles to sign free agents and limited trade ammo — Cheveldayoff may have no choice but to go out and shop for a top-six forward.

Can Cole Perfetti become a driver?

Cole Perfetti is the x-factor to the Jets rounding out their top-six. 

Quietly, Perfetti’s game has really dropped off over the last calendar year. Around this time last year — during his mid-season press conference on January 11, 2024 — Cheveldayoff gave a really interesting statement about Perfetti and how the evolution of a young player is so key to a team’s growth. At the time, Perfetti had recorded 29 points in his first 40 games and was coming off a three-point outing against the Columbus Blue Jackets. 

Cheveldayoff conveyed his message through a story about Kyle Connor’s formative years.

“I remember talking to Paul Maurice when Kyle Connor was going up and down and up and down up and down,” Cheveldayoff. “We sent him down at the beginning of the year and I said to Paul, ‘Ok Paul, we’ll send him down. But, I’m going to tell you right now, if this team is going to do anything. It’s going to be because a guy like Kyle Connor goes from here, to here, over the course of time.”

Perfetti’s production tailored off after those comments, with the five-foot-11 forward recording just nine points in his final 31 games. He was a healthy scratch during that stretch, while also being relegated to press box duty for four of the team’s five playoff games. 

This past summer, when Perfetti was a restricted free agent, there was a narrative that the Jets wronged him in last year’s playoffs. And that surely was Perfetti’s camp's stance during his contract negotiation. But as we approach the midway point of the 2024-25 season, we’re starting to see why this franchise wasn’t gung ho about signing Perfetti long-term.

He’s taken two steps back this year.

While Perfetti’s raw totals — seven goals and 23 points through 40 games — has him on pace for a career-high 47 points, just 12 of his points have come  during five-on-five play. And when you dig a little deeper, his underlying numbers paint a picture of an underwhelming player. One that’s a non-factor most nights. Just like the second half of last season.

The eye test backs those figures up.

Perfetti’s two main weaknesses — size and speed — are two of the most coveted characteristics in a player. And his strengths — hockey IQ and playmaking— haven’t been potent enough to offset his shortcomings.

The more you watch Perfetti, the more you start to question how you could reasonably expect him to produce in tight-checking playoff games. His lack of explosiveness is one thing, but really the crux of that aforementioned conclusion lies in his struggles to get into the ‘guts’ of the ice to create offence.

And while a lot of people in this market like to treat the baby-faced forward with kid gloves, he just turned 23. It’s time for the training wheels to come off.  

If the 2020 10th-overall selection can’t amplify his game down the stretch, Winnipeg’s in real trouble. The cupboards are bare as it is.

Can they make Kyle Connor a Jet for life?

If Kyle Connor walks, the validity of Winnipeg’s cup pursuit goes out the window. 

That’s why when July 1 strikes — when Connor is eligible for an extension — Cheveldayoff’s first call will likely be to his star winger before anything else. 

Connor has been the epitome of consistency for this franchise.

Since the 2019-20 season, only Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Connor McDavid have scored more even strength goals than Connor (144). And the 28-year-old has elevated his game to a whole new level this year. Not only does his 52 points in 40 games place him sixth in NHL scoring — putting him on pace for over 100 points — but Connor’s elevated his defensive game and become a trusted penalty killer for the Jets. 

It’s a no-brainer that Winnipeg will do everything they can to get him back. But will Connor want to stay? 

The odds seem in the Jets favour. Not only has Connor made it known that he’s not bothered by Winnipeg’s climate — in fact, he’s an outdoorsy person and seems to enjoy a lot of what the city offers, even when it’s cold — but he’s got strong bonds with the team’s core. Scheifele is his longtime running mate and a huge driver behind his success. Hellebuyck is also one of his closest friends on the team. 

This time around, contrary to when the Jets were trying to sign Scheifele and Hellebuyck, the Jets have a lot more bargaining power when pitching a superstar. 

But the Jets can’t get into their own way. They shouldn’t blink twice to give Connor more than $8.5 million on his next deal, even if it surpasses Hellebuyck and Schiefele and completely mucks up their ‘internal cap.’ 

Ultimately, there really shouldn't be any hesitation to give Connor a blank cheque. But the ball isn’t entirely in the Jets court.