Keys to victory in Jets-Canadiens Round 2 playoff series

The NHL leader in points, vanquished by Winnipeg. The NHL leader in goals, vanquished by Montreal.

Now, the 14th place Jets meet the 18th place Canadiens in the second round to determine which Canadian team will head to the semifinal and be four wins away from a chance to battle for the Stanley Cup.

Winnipeg is the last Canadian team to make it to the third round, doing so in 2018. Montreal is the last Canadian team to win a Stanley Cup, which it did back in 1993.

Perhaps, it’s fitting these are the last two teams standing from north of the border. The season series was tighter than the wins and losses reflect. Winnipeg won six of the nine head-to-head games, but three of those wins came in 3-on-3 overtime. As we all know, regular-season overtime has been kryptonite for the Canadiens. For what it’s worth, Montreal is 2-0 in overtime in the playoffs. The point being, not a lot separated these teams in their head-to-head regular-season games and that will likely be the case in this series as well.

As we get set for puck drop Wednesday night here is a look at each team’s path to victory in the series, as well as the battle at the most critical position on the ice.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens’ Round 1 series against the Maple Leafs played out as expected in many ways.

In the regular season, Toronto dominated offensive zone time and cycle chances while Montreal played the Leafs relatively even off the rush. The Canadiens forced turnovers and scored goals in transition, while doing their best to limit the number of quality shots their opponent could generate.

In their seven playoff games against Toronto, the Canadiens lost the offensive zone time battle and cycle chance battle handily. The one area the Habs outperformed the Leafs in was chances generated off the rush. Brendan Gallagher’s opening goal in Game 7 was a perfect example of what Montreal does so well and what opposing teams need to watch out for.

In their season series against the Jets, the Canadiens generated more than they allowed off the rush and will look to replicate a lot of what worked for them against the Maple Leafs. Be patient defensively, force turnovers, and look to attack with speed up the ice.

The Canadiens also had success against the Jets in the regular season by applying pressure on Winnipeg’s defence. Montreal was able to generate several goals by aggressively forechecking, disrupting the Jets’ breakouts, and forcing defencemen into mistakes.

Tyler Toffoli was Montreal’s most productive player in the regular season match-up against Winnipeg, scoring six goals in nine games while also leading all players in shots on goal with 27 and rush chances with eight.

In addition to a continued commitment to protecting the front of their net, expect the Canadiens to be aggressive in their puck pursuit with an emphasis on attacking offensively in transition.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets were not a good defensive team during the regular season. Winnipeg was the only team to rank bottom-10 in expected goals against and make the playoffs. Yet, in the opening round against Edmonton, the Jets looked like a completely different team in this area.

Yes, Connor Hellebuyck deserves a lion’s share of the credit for keeping pucks out of the net, but Winnipeg also limited Connor McDavid and company in terms of generating quality scoring chances. The Jets cut their expected goals against per-60 down to 2.39 against the Oilers from 2.93 in the regular season.

The Canadiens are by no means an offensive juggernaut so there is reason to believe the Jets team defence should hold up well in this series. Winnipeg’s top line of Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, and Kyle Connor was able to hang with the Oilers’ dynamic duo of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Jets’ top line did not allow an even-strength goal against McDavid and Draisaitl when paired with either Jesse Puljujarvi or Kailer Yamamoto.

In addition to having a pair of dynamic offensive lines centred by Scheifele and Paul Stastny, the Jets also have a third line capable of being a difference-maker at both ends of the ice. Paul Maurice isn’t shy to use the trio of Adam Lowry, Andrew Copp, and Mason Appleton against top competition, but it is worth noting this line had its struggles against the Canadiens this season.

In just over 71 minutes of even-strength ice against Montreal, the Lowry line was outshot 44-25, outshot from the slot 15-8, and outscored 6-0. Most of that damage came against the Phillip Danault line. The good news for Maurice is the Scheifele line showed against Edmonton it can go best-on-best and post solid results.

Expect the Jets to play an offensive zone, puck-possession style game with an emphasis on establishing a net presence. Winnipeg’s greatest challenge will be doing what Toronto could not do often enough against Montreal — get to the critical scoring areas of the ice and put pucks past Carey Price.

The Jets’ forward depth is a strength and Winnipeg will look for offence from all three lines in this series. In the regular season, the top line combined for 44 goals at even strength, the second line scored 33 and the third line scored 30. As good a shutdown centre as Danault is, he can only be on the ice against one line at a time.

Goaltending

As the Canadiens and Jets proved in the first round, nothing is more important come playoff time than goaltending. Price and Hellebuyck were brilliant for their respective teams against a pair of high-powered offences. You will no doubt hear plenty of talk about how important it will be to get traffic in front of both goalies, so with that in mind let’s take a look at how each fared on shots faced in the regular season when screened.

Hellebuyck had a save percentage of .923 on screened shots, which ranked 11th among all goalies with at least 100 screened shots against. Price is a little farther down the list at .890, which ranked 34th.

While one playoff series is a small sample, these numbers were fairly consistent in the first round with Hellebuyck posting a .938 save percentage on screened shots, while Price finished with an .896 save percentage.

One area where Price did have an advantage was stopping shots from the most high-danger location on the ice, the inner slot.

As you can see from the graphic above, there is a noticeable difference between the two goalies in the first round in their save percentage from the inner slot. This is the net-front area in which roughly half of all goals are scored in the NHL.

This statistic is not solely a reflection of goaltending performance since, like all save percentage stats, team defence plays a big role as well. There were some goals against Hellebuyck in the first round where he was left alone against McDavid and Draisaitl. Montreal does a better job than Winnipeg clearing the net-front area so this will be something to watch in the second round.

Offensively, Winnipeg averaged 4.2 inner slot shots per-60 minutes in the first round — the fewest of any playoff team. As we saw in the Canadiens’ first-round win over the Maple Leafs, Price is going to stop pretty much everything he has eyes on so establishing a net presence and producing shots from this area will have to be a focus for the Jets.

This series should be physical as both teams are averaging over 40 hits per game in the playoffs — both ranking top five. The Canadiens against the Jets in the second round might not be what many expected but this should be a fun, physical series with elite goaltending on both sides.

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