Lacking chemistry, Maple Leafs must quickly form playoff lineup

The Toronto Maple Leafs once again find themselves entering the regular season homestretch with seemingly little to play for aside from “sharpening up for the playoffs.” They’re very likely to finish third in the Atlantic Division and face whoever finishes second between Boston and Florida.

At worst, Tampa could catch them and force Toronto into a wild card spot where they'd draw the Rangers or Hurricanes (or, again, Boston or Florida). But in truth, they don’t really care which of these opponents they draw, as it’s not really in Toronto's control and they’d be underdogs regardless. So, wins and losses are not the current focal point.

What should be, though, is the fact that the Leafs have absolutely nothing resembling cohesion within their lineup less than a month before the playoffs. There's not a single forward line or a defence pair where you go “well, we know that's established, now let’s look at the rest of the lineup.”

The closest thing they have to build on is that when Mitch Marner is healthy he’ll play with Auston Matthews, but even “who will be their left winger” is a question with no clear answer.

Yes, the two injuries to Marner and Calle Jarnkrok have thrown Toronto's forward group into a blender and the trade deadline has muddled their back end, but that doesn’t change the reality that as of today, they haven’t found anything to hang their hat on even when healthy. Even their “old reliable” defence pair of Morgan Rielly and TJ Brodie has stopped working since Brodie’s play has declined so precipitously.

An unsettled group isn’t new for the Leafs. Natural Stat Trick tracks each line that gets more than two faceoffs together at 5-on-5 to document every trio that a coach gave some run to in a game. In last year’s Atlantic Division final series between the Leafs and Florida Panthers, Toronto rolled out 22 different lines that met that criteria over just five games. The Panthers used…four. A fifth line didn’t see so much as two faceoffs together over five games.

And for the Leafs, in case you're interested, here's a look at 14 blender-line combinations that got notable time together in that series, to avoid the world's longest screen shot.

(Thanks again to Natural Stat Trick here)

This "four lines used compared to 22" example is hyper-extreme, but it isn’t all that uncommon when one team is rolling and the other is chasing. In the Stanley Cup Final the Panthers rolled out 18 different lines that met the “two faceoffs at 5-on-5” criteria, while the Golden Knights used just seven. And you can clearly see Vegas’ four lines reflected back at you by the drop in ice time after line four.

When the Lightning beat the Leafs in 2022, here’s a look at the ice time their four lines got, followed by the steep drop off to their fifth-most used line:

Once again, the Leafs used 21 different combinations in that series to Tampa’s 14.

But the greater point with this year's Leafs is that there isn’t any clear sign of what their four lines are supposed to be. What they look like is a team that is from the jump desperate to find some line, any line, that can get traction and be left together for an extended run.

Even in the series the Leafs won against Tampa last year, their line that played the most 5-on-5 minutes together was Sam Lafferty, David Kampf, and Zach Aston-Reese (37 minutes over five games), which tells you how much shuffling happened with the other groups.

Make no mistake, you can win when your lines aren’t set in stone. Injuries happen, suspensions happen, and you can be forced to juggle to overcome problems. The Colorado Avalanche used 19 lines during their six-game Cup Final win over Tampa Bay two seasons ago. But most of the shuffling should happen when you have a starting 12 you like and find yourself making adjustments based on an external circumstance (like an injury), or because you feel like last change on the road forces you to make a small tweak.

What adds to the concern for me is there aren’t even really forward pairs you feel have to play together past Matthews and Marner (Bobby McMann and Matthew Knies showed some flashes, maybe?). They’re really searching for connections to hold on to.

I briefly mentioned the struggles from the Rielly–Brodie pair, which looked similar to the Brodie–Jake McCabe pair that also struggled. It’s unclear which two Leafs defencemen will be tasked with shutting down the opposition's top line, but I’m guessing it would be Rielly and Ilya Lyubushkin, which isn’t great considering how effective Rielly can be on offence when he gets to play against lesser competition. Perhaps a Joel Edmundson-Lyubushkin third pair could close out games, but the point remains we haven’t seen them together yet and, with just 16 games to go, it’s not obvious who should play with who or who should go on the ice when.

There’s a lot of pieces here, but it’s tough to make out what the puzzle should look like.

Oh and one more thing: who’s their starting goalie, again?

We know the Leafs have a lot going for them. Anyway you want to evaluate it, they’re one of the best offensive teams in the NHL, and there are no clear liability-type players in the lineup when healthy. Both of their goalies have had stretches of quality play, and the top-end of their team performances are right there with any of the opponents they may draw in round one. Toronto can win.

But with less than a month to go, and with wins and losses seeming to be of secondary importance down the stretch, the Leafs need to identify what their actual Game 1 lineup will look like. They can’t roll it out right now without Marner and Jarnkrok, of course, but they can find forward pairs to build off, defence pairs that work, and establish a starting goaltender.

For the top-third of NHL teams, the regular season is all about tinkering and finding out what works best for their given roster. With time running out on the Leafs' season, they’re still staring at a long list of questions, with far too few answers.