The Toronto Maple Leafs have been pounding their chest and portraying themselves as a potential Stanley Cup contending team over the past few years. Their regular-season success has been undeniable, but they have had a difficult time winning games at the hardest time of year: the playoffs.
The Leafs broke through last spring by winning a playoff round for the first time in what felt like forever. I would have assumed that, by now, the group understands the kind of commitment it takes on a nightly basis to play to a team identity. And I’m not just talking about the fancy stats like “puck possession” and “offensive zone time.”
I’m talking about standing up for each other when a teammate goes down as a result of a questionable play from an opponent. I’m talking about players in the middle of the lineup understanding their role and executing. I’m talking about pushing back more than once and getting physical when required. I’m talking about having a goaltender steal a game once in a while.
I’m talking about a lot of things!
When I’m scouting players or teams, I try to break down the season in segments. Generally speaking, 10 games gives me a reasonable look at how a player and team are trending. For the purpose of this piece, I looked at the first 12 games Toronto played.
With that in mind, I’ve set out to bring into focus the reality of who the Leafs really are at this stage of the season, and what stands out about their group.
It’s time for their team model to go to another level. I’m growing frustrated with how the group is assembled and the results they provide. Yes, they are going to be a playoff team. Maybe they will go on a run next spring. The Florida Panthers (circa April–June 2023) proved anything is possible when a team “toes the line" together.
Considering the Leafs believe they are a contending team, I thought it would be fair to compare their results so far to the Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights and the upstart Vancouver Canucks.
Vegas has clearly set the standard for team identity. They play a fast, skilled, heavy team game. There aren’t any easy shifts for opponents when they play the Golden Knights.
The Canucks look like a completely different outfit to start the season. Vancouver’s star players are contributing at a high level, while their secondary layers are chipping in offence and providing reliable defensive detail. It also helps that the Canucks are getting Vezina quality goaltending from Thatcher Demko.
With that, we look at the Leafs...
OFFENCE
The Leafs are struggling to find any secondary levels of offence from their entire group.
Matthew Knies looked comfortable skating on the wing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner Monday night, however, and should get a long look in the role. Calle Järnkrok also scored a couple of goals, including the game winner.
Let’s call it progress but …
The reality is Toronto gets most of its scoring from Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly, who have contributed 31 goals and 42 assists between them. The rest of the roster has only provided 10 goals and 28 assists combined.
Compare those statistics to Vegas and Vancouver.
The top five scorers in Vegas (Wiliam Karlsson, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore and Chandler Stephenson) have combined for 21 goals and 42 assists. The rest of the roster has pitched in with 28 goals and 40 assists. The Golden Knights played 13 games in the segment I analyzed, one more than Toronto, but you can easily see the depth of their roster and the reason why opponents say Vegas comes at them in “waves.”
The Vancouver Canucks are one of the feel-good stories to begin the year and are clearly buying into the message being delivered by Rick Tocchet and his coaching staff.
Compared to Toronto, the Canucks have benefited from 28 goals and 59 assists from their top five scorers (Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and Filip Hronek). The rest of their group has contributed 26 goals and 33 assists. The Canucks played the same number of games as Toronto in this segment.
Toronto is trying to position itself as a contending team, but these statistics shine a bright spotlight on the lack of secondary scoring on the Leafs' roster in its current form.
One silver lining is the fact the Leafs have the sixth-best power-play unit in the league, operating at a 26.8 per cent success rate. But it’s not enough to mask how much they have struggled to find a secondary level of offence from the group.
ARE THE LEAFS HARDER TO PLAY AGAINST THIS SEASON?
I’m not going to go on a rant about the Leafs' lack of response last week in their game versus the Bruins when defenceman Timothy Liljegren was tripped up by Brad Marchand and sustained a high ankle sprain. But from a scouting perspective — never mind a fan's perspective — it wasn't great optics to see Tyler Bertuzzi grinning at Marchand. The entire scenario speaks for itself.
The Leafs brought in Ryan Reaves, Max Domi and Bertuzzi to add a layer of muscle, power, and (at worst) secondary offence. Their presence was supposed to make everyone else on the roster more confident, and open up more space for the Leafs' skill players.
To say things haven’t exactly gone smoothly, so far, is an understatement.
There’s no question Reaves is an intimidating individual. He has a role. But playing less than eight minutes per night doesn’t exactly invite opponents to “poke the bear.” Why would anyone engage with Reaves if they don’t have to? He isn’t playing enough to have a massive impact on the game and, if anything, most teams cherish the minutes he’s on the ice due to his limited impact between the whistles.
I’m hoping Bertuzzi and Domi will eventually come around and contribute more offence.
I’m more comfortable with some of the small wins I’m viewing out of Bertuzzi’s game compared to Domi. It’s easy to say a player isn’t playing to his identity, but what about the shifts when people around Bertuzzi aren’t supporting him, or are turning pucks over?
Bertuzzi hasn’t clicked with a specific line yet, but the kind of effort in the following clip shows how he's competing to extend plays along the boards, create a distraction around the net, and make himself available for a scoring opportunity. Both Nylander and Tavares are guilty of giveaways in the sequence, while Bertuzzi empties the tank up and down the ice.
But the bottom line is that there need to be results and the Leafs need more from all three of these players. The offence isn't there yet and the physical pushback hasn't lived up to expectation either.
To make matters worse, Sam Lafferty was traded to Vancouver at the end of training camp in a move that was required to make the Leafs cap compliant to start the season. Lafferty, a pending UFA at the end of the season with a $1.15 million AAV, is the kind of player these Leafs would find useful.
Scouting Lafferty in this segment of the season reveals a player who has is averaging 13:08 in ice time with three goals and three assists.
He’s a plus-8 and has been credited with 14 hits and seven shot blocks. He’s playing fast and competing the full 200 feet.
Domi and Bertuzzi have combined for two goals and six assists between them and a combined 23 hits and eight shot blocks.
Reaves isn’t expected to score and, to be fair, he hasn’t had a ton of puck luck defensively when he’s on the ice. Opponents have scored some unusual goals (like Alex Tuch’s goal for Buffalo on Saturday via a deflection off his shoulder that ended up in the Leafs net). But his minus-8 rating in relation to his average time on ice (7:55) is an alarming statistic. Reaves' 22 hits don’t really leave a dent in relation to his other stats.
The point is, the Leafs have yet to prove they are any harder to play against than past versions of the roster.
TAKEAWAYS
Stats don’t always tell the entire story, I get it, but based on the trends I’m seeing there are some pretty significant ones to watch:
• It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to recognize the more you score, and the more stops you make, the more wins you'll get. The Leafs are scoring fewer goals and allowing more goals against compared to Vancouver and Vegas. Their overall save percentage (.891) is also much lower than the Canucks (.936) and Golden Knights (.929)
• The Leafs continue to thrive on the power play. They have the top percentage of the three teams.
• Toronto, by a wide margin, relies too heavily on its top five scorers to produce compared to the rest of their team. They significantly lack a secondary layer of scoring, whereas the Golden Knights and Canucks have a more balanced lineup.
Toronto might end up having a wonderful regular season and have high hopes heading into the playoffs again, but teams will clamp down more on the top end of their lineup in the second half of the season. If they don’t start scoring more from the middle of the lineup, the Leafs will have little to no chance for extended success because they will be too easy to check.
• The group, as a whole, has not yet demonstrated they are heavier, meaner or more physically engaged than recent Leafs teams.
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
It’s a juggling act for Sheldon Keefe trying to find combinations that complement each other and can result in more offence.
I’m not sure what the best combinations are either. At this point it’s a bit of a guess until something suddenly clicks. But keeping a group together for an extended run will allow for more continuity.
Here’s my best guess at a more productive and balanced lineup for the Leafs:
Forwards
Knies – Matthews – Marner
Bertuzzi – Tavares – Nylander
Gregor – Domi – Robertson
McMann – Kampf - Jarnkrok
Extra: Reaves (Depending on opponent)
Notes:
It’s my opinion that Bobby McMann, who is currently with the AHL Marlies, adds a more impactful depth piece than what Reaves brings on a nightly basis.
Full transparency: I’m not convinced Nick Roberston is the solution at the NHL level, but he had a great training camp, got off to a nice start with the Marlies (11 points in nine games) and he recorded an assist for the Leafs Monday night. He’s earned the opportunity and the team needs to find more scoring.
Leafs AGM and cap guru Brandon Pridham will have to manage how these salaries can fit, of course.
Blue Line
The Leafs find themselves in a pickle when it comes to their D-core right now, with injuries taking their toll.
Healthy Pairings
Rielly - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
McCabe - Klingberg
Current “best case” pairings due to Liljegren injury
Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-Lagesson
McCabe-Klingberg
THE WISH LIST
I feel like I’ve covered all I wanted to with the forward group.
The blue line is the area the Leafs will need to address the most in the coming months. Keefe identified he hadn’t seen a group of defenders more exhausted than the one he witnessed Saturday night versus Buffalo. It’s a very thin group right now due to injuries and it lacks depth.
John Klingberg was brought in to, potentially, quarterback the Leafs' top power-play unit. His offence has not been at a level that disguises his defensive limitations, though. Klingberg had no goals and five assists in this 12-game segment, when he was deployed at even strength and on the PP. But he is barely capable of matching up against middle six opponents. Klingberg is a minus-5 so far this season.
Some names to target, depending on several variables, should include three Calgary Flames players in Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov and Noah Hanifin, all of whom will come through Toronto later this week. Other targets could include Sean Walker (Philadelphia) and Josh Brown (Arizona).
Toronto, through this 12-game segment, is trending behind Vancouver, and not close to the stratosphere (no pun intended) of the Vegas Golden Knights. Things will change over the course of an 82-game schedule, but it’s been frustrating to watch this Leafs team for a long stretch now.
Let’s keep things in perspective. Regular-season wins are nice and they provide you with an opportunity to compete in playoffs. But the Leafs are leaking oil right now on many fronts — even after Monday's comeback win — and can’t afford this stretch of poor play to extend any longer. They need to find internal solutions, for now, and hope they can open up some cap space later on to make additions to the roster.
Recognizing that we're still very early in the season: Imagine if the playoffs started this week, with the Leafs roster looking as it does today?
I'm not sure I'd like their chances.
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