Looking at whether Flames' Dustin Wolf can make push for Calder Trophy

It has been 15 years since a goaltender took home the Calder Trophy.

Steve Mason was named rookie of the year in 2008-09 after posting impressive numbers (2.29 goals-against average, .916 save percentage and 10 shutouts) in 61 starts for the Columbus Blue Jackets. The decade-and-a-half-long stretch without a goaltender winning the Calder Trophy is the longest in the history of the award, according to ESPN.

Dustin Wolf could be the one to snap that streak. The 23-year-old goaltender has impressed for the Calgary Flames, winning seven of his 10 starts with a 2.36 goals-against average and .925 save percentage. He has eight quality starts to his name, meaning he has recorded a positive goals saved above expected in 80 per cent of his appearances. Only Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (91.7 per cent) and Dallas’ Jake Oettinger (83.3 per cent) have higher percentages among goaltenders who have started at least 10 games.

The Calder Trophy buzz is beginning to build in Calgary.

“It’s a little bit of everything,” Wolf told reporters Tuesday about what it feels like to be dialed in mentally. “You’re reading plays well. I don’t know if ‘predicting’ is the right word, but you’re kind of envisioning what’s going to happen next. You’re seeing through bodies. You’re just connected. It’s a good feeling to have and one you certainly have to work every day to keep.”

Wolf is saving roughly half a goal above expected per 60 minutes (0.51), which ranks 12th among the top 64 goaltenders in minutes played this season. His .879 slot save percentage and .857 inner-slot save percentage are fifth and ninth, respectively.

The Flames have made Wolf work for it, too. He has seen 14.6 slot shots on net per 60 — 49th among qualified goaltenders.

Wolf does not allow many second-chance opportunities, ranking fourth with a 42.7 no-rebound percentage. But he has stopped all 14 second-chance shots on net he has faced — one of seven qualified goaltenders with a perfect save percentage on those attempts.

“When he is on, he beats the play a lot, so he’s in position and makes hard saves look relatively easy,” Flames coach Ryan Huska told reporters after Wolf recorded his first career shutout last week against the Nashville Predators. “And then it’s the rebound control. He seems to know where he’s putting them when he’s on. But I think his biggest strength is how he reads the play. He arrives a lot of times on his feet, when most goaltenders would be sliding over to make a save.”

Between 2019 and 2024, there were 60 rookie goaltenders who played at least 10 games in a season. That includes goaltenders who maintained their rookie status over multiple years. For example, Stuart Skinner appeared in 13 games for the Edmonton Oilers in 2021-22 and was still considered a rookie in 2022-23, when he played 50 games.

Wolf’s numbers so far this season compare favourably to the combined average of those rookies.

Something that could work against Wolf in his hunt for the Calder Trophy is a lack of playing time compared to rookie forwards and defencemen who play on a nightly basis. Huska has rotated Wolf and Dan Vladar, who has started nine games. That puts Wolf on pace for 43 starts. But now, with Wolf the confirmed starter Thursday against the New York Rangers, it will be the first time he has played three consecutive games this season. (He might also need to backstop the rebuilding Flames to the playoffs to receive serious consideration.)

Wolf’s hot start has given the Flames reason for optimism, but they are trying not to get too far ahead of themselves.

“I love the guy, and I think he’s done an excellent job,” Huska told reporters. “If you do enough and you earn it, people are going to recognize it.”