Maple Leafs Free Agency Preview: Needs, targets, bargains

Kyle Dubas has made no indication that he is trying to remove a piece from the Toronto Maple Leafs’ talented yet expensive nucleus.

So, if we read the tea leaves as the general manager has laid out, that means movable mainstays like William Nylander and Jake Muzzin are likely to return for 2022-23. And even if, say, an Alexander Kerfoot and/or Justin Holl is shifted off the books, that still won’t leave the executive with the type of stack to make a giant splash in free agency.

In other words, Dubas appears ready to play moneyball again, digging through spreadsheets of data and poring over video in search of those second-tier (third-tier?) UFA diamonds in the rough.

“Last season, we were faced with a very similar exercise and a similar question of how we were going to improve when we had certain RFAs or UFAs coming up. Some are due raises; some you are not going to be able to afford,” said Dubas, who is at peace with letting Ilya Mikheyev and Jack Campbell reap their riches elsewhere.

“We need to replicate, in most regards, the way that we operated last summer, by going out and being able to find players who can come in, add to our group — and do so at not a very high cost but by taking advantage of the opportunity and flourishing.”

Find the next David Kämpf.

Sign the new Michael Bunting.

Take a swing on the 2023 Ondrej Kase, because the 2022 Kase is likely to walk.

And when it comes to the crease, explore backup options for new No. 1 Matt Murray.

“That falls onto me and our player personnel department, more than anybody else, to go out and find those players again,” Dubas said.

“It is a challenge we embraced last summer, especially coming off the series we had last year and the disappointment we had then. We need to replicate that again but also eliminate any mistakes at all. The margin for error is so much smaller.

“It is a challenge — one that we embrace and one that, in the future, we will be judged on.”

Oh, yeah.

Salary cap space: $6.36 million
Roster size: 17/23
Salary committed to forwards: $48.91 million
Salary committed to defence: $22.32 million
Salary committed to goalies: $4.69 million

Potential UFA targets

Ilya Samsonov, G

With the big money going to Murray, the Maple Leafs have bowed out of the premium UFA goalie market — a class of two, Darcy Kuemper and Campbell — and will turn their attention to cost-effect support to round out their tandem.

Of that lot, Samsonov — left unqualified as a pending RFA by Kuemper-hunting Washington — is the youngest and best of the bunch.

He’s 25 coming off a winning record (23-12-3) in a shared-load season, and his best years are likely still ahead.

Counterpoint: Samsonov failed to steal the Captials’ crease outright, his save percentage was below league average (.891), and GM Brian MacLellan couldn’t find a buyer on the trade market.

Missing out on Murray, the Buffalo Sabres should be among the bidders for Samsonov, who will have multiple options.

Other UFA options include Martin Jones, Thomas Greiss, Dustin Tokarski, Eric Comrie and Charlie Lindgren. (The future of veterans Braden Holtby, 36, and Jaroslav Halak, 37, is undetermined.)

Price will be of utmost importance. Dubas’ fallback is to fill the job internally.

“I think I feel good about (Erik) Källgren and (Joseph) Woll battling there,” Dubas said.

Zach Aston-Reese, LW

The search for a middle-six Mikheyev replacement should be fascinating and far-reaching.

The defensive-minded Aston-Reese plays with an edge and forechecks aggressively. Looking to join his third franchise at age 27, the undrafted winger could provide an energy jolt.

Other options include brief Leaf Evan Rodrigues and 18-goal left wing Danton Heinen, pricing out of Pittsburgh; Chicago’s unqualified head-scratchers Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome; skillsy Sonny Milano, not qualified by Anaheim; and late-bloomer Dakota Joshua, who may not be long for St. Louis.

Dubas dipped into the unqualified pool twice last summer, taking flyers on Nick Ritichie and Kase, so no one would be shocked to see him go that route again.

Justin Braun, D

Toronto needs an experienced, defensive-minded, right-shot blueliner. Trouble is, the UFA landscape isn’t exactly rife with them.

Maybe they stick it out with Holl in the final year of his deal. Maybe not.

Because Josh Manson, in whom Toronto has expressed interest in the past, is likely to fall out of the Leafs’ price range (Anaheim is exploring a return), Braun is an option. He plays a safe and simple meat-and-potatoes game but can eat up minutes, aid on the penalty kill, and his underlying metrics are positive. Dubas kicked tires on Braun at the deadline and could reinvestigate.

Braun registered a plus-3 rating in Philadelphia last season despite playing with horrendous Flyers team (minus-87 goal differential). He should be inspired to join a contender.

Another route would be simply reupping Ilya Lyubushkin, making the Russian Bear more than a rental. He was a decent fit, well-liked by his teammates, and Dubas has kept a door open — for the right price.

Darren Helm, C

Jason Spezza’s retirement and Wayne Simmonds’ string of healthy scratches signal a need for a refreshed bottom six. A gritty veteran presence could do wonders here.

The 35-year-old Helm is durable, can play left wing or centre, and has the whole more-rings-in-the-room angle working for him. He never sacrifices offence for defence and can kill penalties.

Helm shouldn’t command a huge commitment in terms of dollars or term.

We also wonder if John Tavares’ boyhood bestie and onetime Marlie, Sam Gagner, could make sense here on a six-figure deal.

“You are probably not going to be able to spend as much as you want on those depth pieces,” Dubas said. “You are really going to have to do a great job of finding value, whether that is someone that is coming off of injury, someone who hasn’t been given great opportunities, or someone coming off of a bad year that you think you see something in and is a fit with your team.”