Maple Leafs Mailbag: Biggest surprise? Biggest letdown? Big trade coming?

TORONTO — School's in, and training camp is around the corner.

Hockey season may not quite be upon us yet. But with less than two weeks until medicals and bag skates, bold predictions and early line combinations, Toronto Maple Leafs fans are clearly eager to start talking puck, judging by the number of questions fired in the ol' mailbag.

Let's dig in.

Is this the year Nick Robertson finally establishes himself in the NHL? —@BreezyDangles

Does Nick Robertson make the team out of camp? — @MedhurstAl

Good question. Let's go with no.

Even when Robertson deserved to make the Maple Leafs out of camp last fall, lighting it up in pre-season action, he was sent to the AHL's Marlies due to his waiver-exempt status.

“It’s just kind of the reality of it and the situation, salary cap and carrying a tight roster,” coach Sheldon Keefe explained at the time.

Well, the cap-pressed Leafs are once again carrying a tight roster (likely fewer than 23 bodies), and the soon-to-be-22-year-old Robertson is once again exempt from waivers, plus he hasn't played a game since suffering his season-ending shoulder injury on Dec. 8.

A peek at Toronto's left-wing depth chart shows that Robertson will have to outduel Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Matthew Knies and, say, Sam Lafferty to secure a spot. Among that group, only Knies is exempt from waivers, and his post-season revealed a cap-friendly NHLer.

It says here, GM Brad Treliving lets Robertson regain his strength and confidence on the farm before the determined kid's next big-league look.

That said, injuries happen, Robertson has plenty to prove entering a contract year, and the Leafs need to decide if he's part of their future. He'll get a mid-season callup, health willing.

Do you see a trade moving out a D-man, like Brodie, for cap relief and/or remaking the blue line? — @DarrinMaltais

T.J. Brodie (and his $5=million cap hit) is a compelling case. The 33-year-old is entering the final year of a contract signed by Kyle Dubas after Brodie's former GM, Treliving, let the smart-stick defenceman walk out of Calgary and hit the open market.

Treliving prefers his bluelines big and bullish, yet Brodie is the best pure defender on Toronto's back end. I'd argue that the Leafs need more Brodie, not less.

True, injuries and a rough go on the Leafs' 2023 playoff shutdown unit took some shine off the man Keefe has referred to as "Mr. Consistency." And the defence corps certainly feels like a work-in-progress.

Yes, I believe Treliving will remake the back-end mix before the deadline passes, though that doesn't necessarily mean a Brodie trade. I keep thinking about Craig Conroy in Calgary and how the rookie GM shouldn't let Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov and Chris Tanev walk for nothing. Any one of them instantly improves the Leafs' defence.

Why Klingberg? Why Reaves? — @B_Intransitive

Here's why Klingberg. Here's why Reaves.

Will John Klingberg have his share of D-zone struggles and occasionally draw the fans' ire? Did Ryan Reaves get too much term? Is there a dose of risk in these UFA signings? Yes, yes, and yes.

And yet both fill a need identified by management and the coaching staff — more offence driven from the blue line; more snot and bluster at the bottom of the lineup — and count me intrigued to see how these specialists shape the Maple Leafs' attack.

How can Gary justify being paid less than only 17 players this upcoming season? — @jimbo_jones0

Because commissioners are immune to the salary cap, and Gary Bettman has 32 billionaires for bosses.

What needs to happen to become cap compliant? — @Mikemmarchand

Summoning the Maple Leafs page on CapFriendly.com reveals a frightening excess of $13.26 million(!) over the ceiling.

Shift Matt Murray and Jake Muzzin to long-term injured reserve, and that overage shrinks to $2.94 million.

Cut the roster below the maximum 23 skaters by placing a few fringe players like Dylan Gambrell, Conor Timmins, and Martin Jones on waivers, and you're in the clear.

There is no need to make a trade, and no rush to waive a veteran yet — because injuries routinely pop up during the pre-season.

Worst case, the Leafs lose a third goalie or fourth-pair defenceman on the wire.

They'll be fine.

If you’re sitting in a coffee shop and a velociraptor shows up, can it break the windows? — @UglyThor

A-ha. A trick question you've lobbed, sir.

Velociraptors existed in the Late Cretaceous Period, which predates the Latte Frappuccinos Period by approximately 99 to 65 million years.

Nice try, Ugly Thor.

Will we finally get a new goal song? — @mariezo34

This is it. This is the time.

We need something to distract the media and fans from William Nylander's contract uncertainty, don't we?

Will Nylander still be a Leaf when training camp opens? — @SeanCDNmale55

Sure. What's the big hurry?

Who has the best chance of sticking with Matthews and Marner throughout the season? Bertuzzi, Knies, or Domi? — @T_Bone2126

As much as I'm on Team Knies and a believer in the rookie's skillset, Bertuzzi is the most natural successor to Michael Bunting on the left flank. He's an upgrade.

The edge he brings will be much welcomed on Toronto's top line, and the idea of a healthy Bertuzzi skating alongside superstars of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner's ilk should whet appetites and, eventually, thicken his wallet.

In saying that, Keefe is a tinkerer of combinations, so expect to see several forward formations in the buildup to the post-season.

Do you think Tyler Bertuzzi signs an extension with the Leafs on Jan. 1, 2024? —@MFAM_Nickstrils

No. True, Jan. 1 is Bertuzzi's first day of eligibility to re-sign, and the injury-prone power forward has long craved long-term security, so it's possible.

My belief is that the Maple Leafs — who are always judged in May — will let the post-season unfold before major commitment to its one-year rentals.

What do you think the likelihood is that John Klingberg steps in and takes Morgan Rielly's spot on the top power-play unit? — @InsideLeafs

How Keefe and new assistant Guy Boucher deploy the Eastern Conference’s most efficient power play now that Klingberg is an option will be a major training camp storyline.

Since Rielly entered the league, he has 13 power-play goals and 139 power-play points in 719 games.

Over that same span, Klingberg has 21 power-play goals and 158 power-play points in 619 games.

Rielly is an alternate captain, a heart-and-soul leader, and he holds security.

Will he be usurped on PP1 by Klingberg, the hired gun with the more dangerous and deceptive point shot? Do the Leafs opt for a more balanced two-unit approach to five-on-four?

Klingberg said he had candid conversations with the Leafs brass about his role before signing.

“Especially with Sheldon, I think we're on the same page of how we both look at how my game is when it's at its best. And, obviously, I think my game brings a lot of offence, especially probably on the power play as well,” Klingberg said.

My bet: Klingberg starts on PP1 to make him feel welcome (remember the Tyson Barrie debacle?) and it'll be up to the right shot to keep that gig.

Is this finally the year we begin to see a John Tavares production dip? Where do you see J.T. finishing, points-wise? — @InsideLeafs

Tavares will be 33 when the puck drops, yet his dedication to fitness and commitment to his craft suggest a man willing to tussle with Father Time 'til the final bell.

The captain's 5-on-5 scoring was of some concern in 2022-23, but his power-play proficiency boosted him to 36 goals and a tidy 80 points in 80 games. Plenty of teams would love those numbers from their second-line centre.

Let's place Tavares's over/under at 73 points.

Remember, he'll still be skating beside a motivated Marner or Nylander and patrolling the slot on a stacked power-play.

Who will be the biggest surprise and who will be the biggest letdown in 2023-24 for the TML? — @tmlfaninvan

Fun question.

Let's roll with Joseph Woll as the biggest surprise. The Maple Leafs didn't commit big term to Ilya Samsonov, and Treliving recently said that Woll would be given every opportunity to seize an NHL job. The 25-year-old is still unproven, but the Leafs would love nothing more than to develop a true No. 1. Plus, Woll is technically sound, and his mental approach is in the right place.

The greatest letdown may be Klingberg at $4.15 million, though I'd be happy for him to prove us doubters wrong and witness a resurgence.

Klingberg is blessed offensively, but his pay rate aligns with a top-four defenceman, and I'm not convinced the Leafs have the proper partner for him. At this stage, I'd slot Klingberg as a third-pair-slash-power-play guy on a legit contender.

How’s your summer been, Luke? —@sufferinsince67

Ahhh, someone cares. How sweet.

Summer has been fantastic. Zero plane trips, minimal deadlines, and some days I didn't think about hockey at all. Plenty of golf, tennis, bike rides, barbecues, summer shinny, and hip-hop concerts. (L.L. Cool J with The Roots and Big Boi opening for Ice Cube were right up my dad rap alley.)

Thanks for asking. Hope you all had a good summer, too. Now, drop the puck already.