Maple Leafs mid-season report: Best surprise, biggest disappointment, deadline questions

Sheldon Keefe supplied a wonderful line in the early going of the Toronto Maple Leafs' 2023-24 campaign.

"Find a way," the head coach said. "Don't find an excuse."

The concern at the regular-season halfway point of Stanley Cup attempt No. 8 of the Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner–William Nylander era is that the excuses might be winning out.

Some of the reasons Toronto finds itself closer to a wild-card spot than a divisional crown at the 41-game mark are legitimate.

The Leafs have battled through multiple injuries to an already-thin blue line (Timothy Liljegren, John Klingberg, Jake McCabe). Their planned goaltending tandem of Joseph Woll and Ilya Samsonov got detonated by the double whammy of physical and mental struggles. Their big-swing UFA signings were either major whiffs (Klingberg, Ryan Reaves) or took weeks to rev up (Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi). And their record after 60 minutes is less than favourable for a team that has reached overtime for an NHL-high 16 times.

Head coach Sheldon Keefe — at once relieved by a contract extension and uneased by mediocre results — calls this midway juncture a "chance to reflect" but understands the challenge only stiffens from here.

"A lot can happen, and I think a lot has happened to this point," Keefe says. "Obviously what we're seeking in the second half is greater consistency in who we are."

Who they are right now is a top-heavy, pendulum-swinging outfit that can score in bunches and slaughter you when its power play is dialed in; that can also blow leads like birthday cake candles and has serious question marks in the blue paint, on the back end, and when killing a penalty.

"Second half of the year: It's only gonna get tougher as it goes," Domi says. "This is when hockey starts to get fun, closer and closer to the playoffs.

"It's all about preparation for the ultimate goal."

KEY STATS

Record: 21-12-8 (3rd in Atlantic Division, 11th in NHL)
Goals per game: 3.51 (6th in NHL)
Goals against per game: 3.24 (20th in NHL)
Power play: 25.8 per cent (6th in NHL)
Penalty kill: 77.1 per cent (24th in NHL)

BEST SURPRISE: DEPTH SIGNINGS

While GM Brad Treliving's signings of known commodities Bertuzzi, Domi and Klingberg hogged headlines over the off-season and snot became an unlikely, unpleasant buzzword in these parts, the most pleasant revelation has been the new guy's knack for snatching gems from the rubble.

Simon Benoit didn't even make the cut out of camp. Now, his edgy, simple, stay-at-home game has elevated the long defenceman from injury stopgap to a regular. Just as Benoit predicted. (William Lagesson has also comported himself well when called upon.)

Noah Gregor was Treliving's lone, targeted tryout invite. Now, the speedy fourth-line winger has accepted a penalty-kill role and chipped in with the occasional offensive burst despite his limited minutes.

Most important, third-string goaltender Martin Jones, who wasn't recalled until December, already co-leads the club in wins (eight) and is positioned as the de facto No. 1 goaltender as the Leafs head to Western Canada and begin a critical road trip against some of the league's hottest teams.

Treliving signed all of the aforementioned players for less than $1 million each. He's already gotten his money's worth.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: ILYA SAMSONOV

Sure, Klingberg (unhealthy scratch) and Reaves (healthy scratch) are worth a mention in this section. So, too, is a troublesome penalty kill.

But when you pay a guy $3.55 million to stop the puck, you'd like him to do so with more regularity than Samsonov has this season (a career-worst .863 save percentage).

Plenty of leads have been squandered with Samsonov in net. Plenty of oxygen has been spent, too, discussing the precipitous decline of a still-young goaltender who backstopped this franchise to its first playoff series victory in two decades.

We're rooting for the Russian, an easy smile and as likable a man as you'll engage with in a big-league dressing room.

But we're also not convinced — yet — that he can rebound all the way to his 2022-23 form for the Maple Leafs' urgent needs.

BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF: IS THIS TEAM WORTH A TRADE-DEADLINE INVESTMENT?

The talent-heavy, draft-pick-light, cap-tight Maple Leafs have routinely smashed the "all in" button around this time of year.

Hey, we dress some of the most dangerous hockey players in the world. They're in their prime. How can we not spend more futures and go for the Cup?!

But we're not convinced this version of the Leafs is worth another first-round pick or a Fraser Minten or an Easton Cowan. Are you, Mr. Treliving?

"You got to be careful on trade deadline, right? We'll continue to watch our team, but I'm not a big believer that you remake your team [midseason]. You gotta be careful with that," the GM cautions.

"There's tweaks that you'd like to do, sure. We've got X amount of assets that we know we don't necessarily want to be thrown out the door. So, certainly, we're continue to watch our team. We continue to see if there's ways that we can help it. And we'll continue that up to the deadline."

What Treliving has watched since the Leafs' cruisy California road trip against subpar competition should be concerning.

We don't believe Toronto is one Chris Tanev or Jacob Markstrom away from serious Cup contention. Can they upgrade the defence and the bottom six and get lucky with Woll's health?

Or do the Maple Leafs' decision-makers watch the next month play out and decide their smartest play is to hold some assets this spring?

Here's a scary thought: What if the 2023-24 Maple Leafs' greatest win doesn't come on the ice? What if it was locking up Nylander for eight years?