Maple Leafs Midseason Report: Best surprises, biggest questions

So what if an injury cloud has hung over their No. 1 forward and No. 1 goaltender?

These Toronto Maple Leafs — reimagined and restructured under new coach Craig Berube — keep pressing on and keep piling up wins by playing a predictable (read: often boring) brand of hockey that has led them to the top of their division.

The rickety rollercoaster we’ve ridden through so many first halves of recent Leafs campaigns has been smoothed by a steady blueline, solid goaltending and a commitment to structure.

The highs aren’t nearly as high. The lows aren’t nearly as low. But the positive results keep trickling in, and a divisional title is well within grasp.

“I like that it hasn’t been perfect,” says a thoughtful Leafs forward Max Pacioretty, assessing things through 41 games.

“What I mean by that is, when it doesn’t go well, we’ve found ways to win. We’ve found ways to correct our mistakes in games that we’ve lost. The top teams, it’s never perfect early.”

Zoom out, and you’ll see the NHL’s other three divisional leaders with much greater goal differentials. The Jets (plus-43), Capitals (plus-41) and Golden Knights (plus-34) have acted more dynamic and convincing in their hot starts.

The Maple Leafs (plus-16) have risen to the Atlantic’s penthouse the hard way, going 8-1-2 in one-goal games by blocking shots, protecting small leads and eliminating the risk of the rush.

The players have bought into the Berube identity.

“We’ve been in a lot of tight games this year, which is a good thing,” Berube says. “Learning how to win those games. Going into third periods with leads and playing a good period — low-event in the third. We’re not shooting ourselves in the foot.

“It’s not always pretty, you know. You go through these stretches where you’re not scoring a lot. We may not be getting a lot of scoring chances, but we’re staying with it and finding a way to win.”

To a certain extent, Berube says, these dump-it-in, grind-it-out 2025 Maple Leafs even remind him of his 2019 Blues — who went the distance.

“That team played with an identity every night, and I find our team is really starting to trend now, playing with that identity every night. Staying patient, not forcing things too much,” Berube says.

“And it’s not easy hockey. It’s hard hockey. It’s only going to get more difficult now, down the stretch.”

KEY STATS

Record: 26-13-2 (1st in Atlantic Division, 6th in NHL)

Goals per game: 3.15 (12th)

Goals against per game: 2.76 (8th)

Power play: 20.5% (18th)

Penalty kill: 82.7% (8th)

BEST SURPRISE: Elite goaltending

Of the nine series the Maple Leafs have waged in the Matthews–Marner–Nylander era, how many times did they get the better post-season goaltending performance?

Just once. Ilya Samsonov was better than Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first round of 2023.

So, it is wholly encouraging — and somewhat surprising — that Toronto is getting all the saves it needs through 41 games.

The Leafs’ team save percentage (.906) is tops in the Eastern Conference and third-best overall, despite GM Brad Treliving rolling the dice on an unproven, injury-prone tandem.

Neither Joseph Woll nor Anthony Stolarz has appeared in as many as 29 NHL games in a single season. Both have been stellar when healthy.

Both have already battled injury again this season, forcing the Leafs to trot out a rusty veteran (Matt Murray) and a still-green prospect (Dennis Hildeby) on occasion.

And yet, despite the inexperience and uncertainty, the Maple Leafs have dressed the superior man in pads on most nights.

Great goaltenders, Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly notes, encourage the skaters in front of them to block more shots and work harder to return the favour.

Absolutely, fingers are crossed for a healthy Stolarz return from his latest knee operation.

Because, hey, if the Leafs can get this level of netminding in April and May? Well, they might be playing in June.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Secondary offence

Less surprising but more concerning is what is happening — or, rather, not happening enough — at the opposite end of the rink.

The Maple Leafs were the East’s most dangerous offensive team in 2023-24 and, with this core, have routinely rolled out one of hockey’s most efficient regular-season power plays.

Under Berube, and by investing their free agency dollars on the back end, the Leafs have become a middle-of-the-pack scoring threat — and their often-stale power play has dipped below the league average.

The irony here is that Mitch Marner is on pace to crush a career high in points (112), William Nylander is tracking a career high in goals (46), and a resurgent John Tavares is enjoying his best campaign in six years.

That Toronto’s 69-goal man in Auston Matthews is battling a nagging injury doesn’t help, but the main issue has been the spottiness of a secondary scoring punch.

Sophomore Matthew Knies (15 goals) has taken an impressive step, and Bobby McMann (12 goals) has shown wonderful flashes when healthy.

Max Domi (three goals, 14 points) and Nick Robertson (six goals, 10 points) can’t be thrilled with their first-half offensive stat lines, however. Neither can the defence corps, whom Berube has been encouraging to be more active lately.

We’ll bet that Treliving tries to add another scoring threat, preferably up the middle, by trade deadline. But fans might just need to get used to more low-octane wins.

BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF: How healthy will Matthews be when it matters?

“I don’t know.”

That was the captain’s candid response when asked if he’ll be able to fully recover from his undisclosed upper-body injury this season.

The implications of Matthews’ health are as great as the uncertainty: Should the face of U.S. hockey participate in February’s 4 Nations Face-Off? Should Treliving consider LTIR to maximize pre-playoffs rest? And how does Matthews’ status affect the club’s aggression in the trade market? Should the Leafs push all-in if their best player is only operating at, say, 80 per cent?

What we do know is that the player is determined to give it his all. Matthews has no interest in sitting on the sidelines, and he certainly looked nimble and engaged in Saturday’s return game against Boston.

We also know that the coaching staff and management is on high alert, doing everything possible to manage and maximize the No. 1 centre.

And that every cross-check and collision for the next 41 games — and beyond — will cause Leafs Nation to hold its collective breath.