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Maple Leafs' most pressing post-season issue: Finding power-play success

Special teams are having a greater impact on the outcome of NHL games than they have in decades. That’s visible on the Hockey Reference table of league averages below, where I’ve highlighted this season and the power-play (PP%), which has a league-wide success rate pushing 22%, far better than 10 years ago where it fell below 18%, and 20 years ago when goals were scored on fewer than 16% of power-play attempts. Just look at “PP%” on down:

Source: Hockey Reference
Source: Hockey Reference

Power-play opportunities (PPOs) are up, as are PP goals per game per team (just listed there as “PP”). That PP goals category shows us there’s nearly a goal-and-a-half scored on the power-play in each NHL game. Penalty kill success rates are falling close to 78%, meaning if you can be good there (like say the Boston Bruins, who kill off 86% of the penalties they take), you’re at a huge advantage.

Just about every league-wide average above reflects today’s NHL: power-plays have gotten more skilled and deadly than ever, with teams making the opposition pay for their infractions. That’s doubly important during the playoffs, when even strength scoring gets even harder and chances are tougher to come by.

Leafs fans reading this are already nodding their heads vigorously, as they’re likely aware just how badly their power-play has cost them in some insanely close post-season outcomes. They’ve lost six straight first round matchups (you may have heard), and five have come in the deciding games of those series.

Here’s their power-play’s contribution over those six years. League-wide rank is in brackets, obviously out of 31 or 32 teams in the regular season, and 16 in the post-season (pandemic year was 24). The numbers are simply PP percentages:

REG. SEASON

PLAYOFFS

DIFFERENTIAL

2021-22

27.3 (1st)

14.3 (11th)

-13.0

2020-21

20.0 (16th)

13.0 (14th)

-7.0

2019-20

23.1 (6th)

15.4 (t-15th)

-7.7

2018-19

21.8 (8th)

18.8 (9th)

-3.0

2017-18

25.0 (2nd)

26.7 (4th)

1.7

2016-17

23.8 (2nd)

16.7 (t-9th)

-7.1

Below, I’ve decided to focus mostly on the past few seasons, as the current team most closely resembles those iterations. In sharpening that focus, one thing that stood out to me was how over the past couple seasons in particular, a good power-play could’ve done wonders for them. Here’s a look at their power-play opportunities by game, and the total PP time per game they’ve had in those post-season series:

REG. SEASON

PLAYOFFS

2021-22

2.82 (4:19)

4.00 (6:37)

2020-21

2.77 (4:32)

3.29 (6:07)

2019-20

2.79 (4:30)

2.6 (4:21)

Would’ve been nice to keep that power-play humming at 27% while on the power-play over six minutes per game, wouldn’t it have been?

I wanted to dig in on not just the power-play success rate of the Leafs – that being the “result” – but also on their “process.” Have they just been unlucky? Have they just failed to get the bounces despite operating as they usually have?

The number say no. They’ve haven’t just been worse at converting, their whole process has lagged behind their usual results. It’s worth acknowledging the obvious here: when you cut out the 16 worst teams from the picture and just play one good team seven times, it’s going to be harder to score. But you also have time to game plan against a single PK, and you still have an extra body on the ice, so the numbers shouldn’t fall off a cliff.

First, here’s last year’s regular season to post-season power-play experience:

2021-22

REG. SEASON

PLAYOFFS

PP%

27.3%

14.3%

Goals

0.36

0.17

Expected Goals

0.30

0.21

Shot Attempts

3.9

3.7

Slot Shots

1.3

1.1

Slot Passes

2.0

1.6

OZ Pass Completions

17.9

17.2

OZ Possession Time

0:43

0:41

Entries

2.3

2.0

One thing that stands out: over the years the Leafs elite shooting talent makes it so they commonly outperform their “expected goals.” As you can see in the regular season, their expected goals was .3 per game, and they scored .36 per game. Their elite finishing had less success than expected in that post-season, which could be a testament to the way Tampa Bay game-planned for, and defended the Leafs elite stars.

Their shots per game went down by .2, which is exactly the hit off their “slot shots” per game average. They stopped getting their best looks.

The year prior, the biggest concern was their “slot shots” stat, which shrunk rapidly from the regular season to the playoffs. Talk about losing your best looks.

2020-21

REG. SEASON

PLAYOFFS

PP%

20.0%

13.0%

Goals

0.24

0.14

Expected Goals

0.31

0.20

Shot Attempts

3.7

3.5

Slot Shots

1.3

0.7

Slot Passes

1.9

1.5

OZ Pass Completions

17.3

16.2

OZ Possession Time

0:42

0:38

Entries

2.5

2.6

Another strength above that dried up fast, and is related: their OZ Pass Completions, meaning they either stopped moving the puck around, or couldn’t do it. Without the puck moving around, lanes and seams don’t open up, and suddenly there’s less opportunity to get the puck into the slot for a shot.

The end of puck movement was also a massive disappointment during the previous post-season. They absolutely stopped passing the puck around, they had very little in-zone possession time, and the amount of entries they had in the playoffs just showed how often they were forced to spend time setting back up. Look at these OZ Pass Completions:

2019-20

REG. SEASON

PLAYOFFS

PP%

23.1%

15.4%

Goals

0.28

0.18

Expected Goals

0.27

0.29

Shot Attempts

3.4

3.5

Slot Shots

1.2

1.7

Slot Passes

1.9

1.8

OZ Pass Completions

15.6

12.3

OZ Possession Time

0:38

0:36

Entries

2.6

3.3

All of the above speaks to something pretty clear with this year’s Leafs team, which is that they absolutely have to maintain their rate of power-play success in the post-season to win some rounds, and a big part of that is keeping the pill moving.

It’s not that they don’t know this, and in fact, it’s why you’ve seen so much tinkering (everyone on the top unit has played both a flank and bumper role at times). They need the opposition to have to consider more than one look, and when something isn’t working, they need a better plan B.

The best power-play during the 2021-22 playoffs? The Colorado Avalanche, who scored on 32.8% of their opportunities, and won the Cup. The year before when the Lightning won their second Cup, they clicked at 32.4% in the post-season (they were around 23% for their other Cup). When the Capitals won in 2018 they were at 29.3%. Only the St. Louis Blues had an outlier PP among the five most recent winners. The games are a grind, and scoring is hard – success on the power-play helps you get the odd “easier” goal, but also can create room at 5-on-5, with the opposition knowing penalties can cost them dearly.

Here's a look at the Leafs PP stats so far this season. The sharpest contrast to me is that they’re 17th in shot attempts, but second in slot shots:

REG. SEASON

PP%

25% (6th)

Goals

0.38 (8th)

Expected Goals

0.26 (13th)

Shot Attempts

3.5 (17th)

Slot Shots

1.3 (2nd)

Slot Passes

1.7 (13th)

OZ Pass Completions

17.4 (9th)

OZ Possession Time

0:42 (6th)

Entries

2.6 (6th)

Once those grade A looks are better defended by both a better team and a team that’s game-planning for you, what else do you have to offer?

Do the Leafs have answers now (like with their five-forward option, their most unique Plan B)? Do they have to find help at the deadline, someone like Jacob Chychrun or John Klingberg to take the reins? Or do they need to spend part of the next 30 games finding alternate ways to have success? Or will they be just fine?

There’s questions for every team as they head into the post-season, and flawed teams can still have post-season success. But for all the talk about the Leafs grit, or about their goaltending, their biggest question of all might lay right at the feet of their greatest strength – their elite offensive players – and may just represent the small jump they need to clear their biggest hurdle, and earn a first round victory.

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