Maple Leafs prove injury replacement players provide stopgap, not solution 

Towards the end of the 2015-16 NHL season, when the Toronto Maple Leafs were actively trying to lose in hopes of getting Auston Matthews, they gave just about everyone on the Toronto Marlies a few NHL games, as winning wasn’t the goal, and evaluation was.  

I was in my first year in the AHL as the video coach, and it felt like every other day we had some new ECHL player in our locker room who was about to be offered a spot that had previously gone to someone like Zach Hyman or Connor Brown or Kasperi Kapanen. 

One would think we’d have been terrible, given all our AHL players were in the show. A logical thought, given we had objectively worse players. But over that stretch of games, our team worked its collective tail off, defied its low expectations, and won a lot of hockey games.  

It was the following season, when we were thin again (this time due to injury), and were again winning games, that I really started to put thought into it. In the middle of the season, when players have settled into their roles, their lines, and their comfortable places on the roster, having an injection of youthful excitement does nothing but drive positive results … for a while.  

It was during this run that I remember thinking, “Wait, are we sure this ECHL kid isn’t better for our team than the future NHLer who used to play that spot?” It was against that logical grain, but it got harder to argue with the results the more we won.  

Until we stopped winning. 

You may recognize the overlap of that concept with that of the Maple Leafs, who have gone 7-2 in the absence of Auston Matthews, which has gone so far as to inspire pointless musings on whether the team is, in fact, better without the guy who won the Hart Trophy two years ago. 

As a team, you want those fill-in players to do a great job, and you want them to make you ask that “Should we maybe keep this player?” question. But what happens is, you get the bump from their energy and focus and attention to detail at a time when other teams start to let it slide a bit. These kids know that to stay in the lineup and perhaps earn more opportunity, the very thing they need to do is … literally whatever the coach asks of them. Rarely will a coaching staff get a more engaged, eager-to-please player than in these moments.  

It also doesn’t hurt that other teams look at your roster pre-game and go “Oh wow they’re without [insert list of very good players],” which can have the effect of further taking their foot off the gas.  

In the case of the Leafs themselves, a lot has gone right in the face of what has appeared to be long odds. For one, their players who have received increased opportunities have done all the things I suggested above: they’ve worked hard, stayed in the system, competed, and kept it simple. Those are all things that help you stay in the lineup and limit goals, though they’re not exactly the most efficient way to do the hardest thing in the sport: score goals.  

As a result, the outcome has been exactly what you’d expect: in the absence of Auston Matthews, the Leafs have scored the fewest 5-on-5 goals over that time across the NHL, a whopping one per game. They’ve also only allowed a very few, just 10 over those nine games. I’d say the trap-era New Jersey Devils would be proud, but those teams used to actually score. 

Adding on to that is that their goalies have been spectacular during this run, which has also kept goals down and allowed them to pile up wins despite playing their thin lineup.  

But as the Leafs — or any team around the NHL for that matter — continue to stay injured or even add injuries, things get a lot harder. If anyone could maintain their focus and drive at a playoff-like level for a full 82 games… they probably wouldn’t be considered AHLers. But no human can execute that sustained level of desperate commitment — the type we see attempted in the playoffs — that often.  

These call-up players have been pushing themselves to be their best, but that nitrous-infused effort can only carry them so far. The Leafs are starting to feel the effects of the 'Effort Hangover', and it will only get worse the longer it stretches on.  

The problem there, too, is that coaches, players, and even fans start with no expectations for these fill-in players. They’re not supposed to do anything but avoid mistakes, and so when nothing happens in a game, it’s a successful game. But with time, people start to go “Well you can’t just do nothing, that’s not gonna help us beat a good team.” 

Expectations change. 

The Leafs heard that from Mitch Marner after their last game, where when asked about the lack of 5-on-5 scoring he replied “Well, we’re missing half our team up front,” which is a perfectly fair point. And it speaks to the idea that it’s becoming clear — if not frustrating — to have so many roster spots filled with guys trying to simply avoid making glaring mistakes. 

Toronto is hitting this wall at the right time. Auston Matthews is very likely to play Saturday night, and it’s not impossible they get Matthew Knies back too, and those two guys are the best players that they’ve been scuffling without. The team needs some goals, and reinforcements are coming. 

It’s great for not just the Leafs, but for any team to go through these stretches where they see what they’ve got from a wide array of players. That’s because down the road, and specifically in the playoffs, you may need a certain player for a game or two, and you’ve now had a look at what they can give you when they’ve got a full tank.  

Toronto would be happy with the answers they’ve got so far. Not every team gets those outcomes when things get thin. But scoring is hard, and until those young guys are equipped to do more than just get by, you shouldn’t get too excited about short-term results. 

It’s a hard league to play in, let alone score, and no team can have sustained success with their best players in the press box.