Maple Leafs Season Preview: Preparing for another make-or-break season

TORONTO -- What's old is new again.

Another reason-season preview when all that everyone inside and outside Toronto Maple Leafs headquarters cares about is post-season results.

Despite some off-season turmoil, the band is back together — Sheldon Keefe, Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly — but they have a new leader.

GM Brad Treliving has twiddled with the fringes of his inherited roster, injected snot and grit with his free-agent pickups, and a couple new assistant coaches are fiddling with the special teams.

Absolutely there are enough new faces and positions to stir up interest in how these Maple Leafs play en route to the dance. But we won't pretend that another stellar regular season will amount to much more than preparation for the big spring dance.

Same band.

Can they sing a fresh tune?

2022-23 regular season record: 50-21-11, 111 points
2023-23 season finish: 2nd in Atlantic, eliminated 4-1 in Round 2 by Florida
Additions: Tyler Bertuzzi, John Klingberg, Max Domi, Ryan Reaves, Noah Gregor, Simon Benoit, Martin Jones
Subtractions: Ryan O'Reilly, Michael Bunting, Alexander Kerfoot, Noel Acciari, Justin Holl, Luke Schenn, Sam Lafferty, Erik Gustafsson, Zach Aston-Reese, Wayne Simmonds, Erik Källgren

1. Contract-year Nylander

So much of this season (and next) centres around William Nylander.

The hotly debated topic has already been beaten like a pinata on talk radio, but for good reason.

Nylander is a 40-goal dynamo and a steal at his current $6.9-million AAV. As one of the most coveted UFAs of the 2024 class, he is also due a rich raise. As you may have heard, Nylander and the club are a gulf apart in negotiations.

Neither side is rushing to close that gap; neither wants to discuss the situation publicly.

Adding an intriguing wrinkle here is Treliving's decision to give the winger a good, hard look centring his own line, between Max Domi and Calle Järnkrok. Toronto's depth up middle ice isn't what it used to be, and the Leafs would love to roll three units that can score.

Tossing a wrinkle into the debate is the surprise development of prospect Fraser Minten, who assumed Nylander's 3C role in the final week of training camp. Does Minten get a nine-game extended tryout? More? And how does that affect Nylander's usage?

How Nylander fares driving his own line (or keeping Tavares young) could affect both the club's success and the star's new salary.

2. 'Underrated' defence or 'work in progress'?

Early in the off-season, Treliving described his D corps as "a work in progress." No changes to the personnel have been made since that comment, but the GM has reframed his blueline as "underrated."

True, the Leafs are generally a strong defensive club — they allowed the seventh-fewest goals last season — but their mix of defencemen feels incomplete. More pure defenders and some bigger bodies would instill confidence.

That Conor Timmins, John Klingberg and Simon Benoit all suffered preseason injuries is concerning. So is Mark Giordano's age (40).

Further to the D, the Leafs' penalty killing is an area to watch. They slipped from eighth (82.1 per cent) in 2021-22 to 12th (81.9) last season in the category, then lost some of their best PK guys to free agency.

We trust that Treliving will remodel this "underrated" blueline in-season. It's not championship material yet.

3. Atlantic sea change

One of the most compelling storylines leaguewide is the rich possibility for some much-needed regular-season chaos in the Atlantic Division — long dominated by the three-headed monster of Boston, Tampa, and Toronto.

The Bruins are reeling from the blow of losing their No. 1 and No. 2 centremen to retirement. The mighty Lightning continue to shed talent due to salary-cap hell, and now their captain is ticked and their all-world goalie is hurt. And the Leafs, on paper, haven't taken a discernable leap forward.

Meanwhile, the patient rebuilds in Buffalo and Ottawa finally look ready for prime time.

The cavern between the Atlantic's haves and have-nots is narrowing. Yeah, but how does it affect the Leafs?

The Season Will Be a Success If...

The Maple Leafs reach the Eastern Conference final, at minimum, and look competitive in their bid for Round 4.

Let's raise the bar, shall we?

No more "just win a round." This core has been together for seven seasons and doesn't have two postseason series victories to rub together.

The first-round monkey is off Keefe and the stars' back, and the Leafs enter 2023-24 as divisional favourites. Time to take a significant step here.

Claim home ice, win two rounds, give the Metropolitan champs fits in semis, and see what happens.

Honestly, anything less at this point isn't good enough.

Player Who Could Surprise: Matthew Knies

A new hope.

Anticipation is bubbling for the roster's lone rookie skater, Matthew Knies, a 20-year-old NCAA stud who jumped into the 2023 postseason and promptly put up four points in his first seven playoff games.

Knies also got suplexed into concussion protocol by Florida's Sam Bennett, a reminder that playing 82 against men will be a different animal than 40 against college kids.

"The NHL demands a lot physically and mentally," Knies admits.

Still, the left wing trained hard this summer alongside Matthews in their native Arizona and has looked every bit ready for the challenge in preseason, making slick plays and smart decisions on a line with former landlord John Tavares and speedster Sam Lafferty.

He also carries himself with the assuredness and eagerness to thrive under the bright lights of an intense market. Dude can take a hit to make a play.

"Every young player is going to feel the grind of an 82-game season. It's my 15th year. I'm going to feel the grind of an 82-game season. I've just been through it a lot," Tavares explains. "You see the physical maturity and obviously the skillset he brings. It's pretty unique, and it's gonna make a big impact for us."

While Knies's offensive instincts are natural, he's devoting the time to work on his D-zone wall play to help facilitate breakouts.

"I tell him that everybody can tell you things about what it's going to be like, but until you experience it, it's obviously a grind," Matthews says. "Physically, he's more than capable of playing all 82 games and being a really good player for us."

Projected Opening Night Lineup

Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Mitchell Marner
Max Domi – John Tavares – William Nylander
Matthew Knies – Fraser Minten – Calle Järnkrok
Noah Gregor – David Kämpf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – T.J. Brodie
Jake McCabe – John Klingberg
Mark Giordano – Timothy Liljegren

Ilya Samsonov
Joseph Woll