During the shortened 2020-21 NHL season, Mitch Marner finished fourth in the NHL in scoring, sandwiched between Brad Marchand and Auston Matthews, just ahead of names like Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane. That’s a special output for a young guy whose offensive abilities are, at this point, among the best in the world.
What’s most insane about that though, is that through the same 56-game season that saw Marner score 20 times and threaten 70 points, he scored … zero power-play goals. Not one, and his measly 14 power-play points tied him for 54th in the league with what I’d call simply “good” offensive players like Jordan Staal and Chris Kreider and Adrian Kempe.
The Leafs' power play finished dead smack in the middle of the NHL at 16th and rested on an extremely clean but unimpressive 20 per cent (“unimpressive” given their talent). It’s not like he wasn’t afforded the chance to put up points either. He played on the top unit, spending over 172 minutes on the ice with the man advantage, most frequently alongside talented players named Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly.
None of those things are opinions, they’re facts, which makes my opinion that he had an abysmally bad year on the power play rock solid, if I do say so myself. The concern isn’t that he had a bad year on the power play though, it’s that he’s not a very effective power-play player, period, and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to reach that conclusion. At the very least he’s not a great PP player when compared to how effective he is at even strength.
So what gives?
It doesn’t seem possible that a player that talented offensively should somehow be less effective with more time and space, and so naturally, we come to how he’s been used. He’s been a flank player on the PP (and a fairly successful one on a power play with James Van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak), with the reasoning for putting him there likely being that he’s a great puck handler and a good distributor so you’d want the puck in his hands as often as possible, like a point guard.
As you know, an NBA point guard who can’t really shoot is a whole lot less effective than one who can, as defenders can sag off them and worry more about where the ball’s going next, cause the concern isn’t “the rim.”
We’ve heard that Marner has worked on his shot during the off-season (as we have before), but the reality is that guy just isn’t going to become a scary shooting presence, even if it’s better. If he does, you can throw this piece out, because he’s going to light it up, but let’s just assume for the sake of what’s most likely that he’s going to remain best defined as a playmaking passer.
This year the Leafs have recognized that maybe he was miscast in the role of flank-guy, and so they’re going to start by using him somewhere else, the bumper. Below I’m going to look at the three options for Marner that aren’t the flank, assuming the Leafs stay in a 1-3-1 as just about every unit in the NHL now does. (Thoughts on THAT can be saved for another day.)
The Bumper
The role of the bumper player is to act as a relief valve, taking passes from pressured players on the outside and redistributing the puck back outside to someone with more time. They’re often asked to make quick touches and decisions with the puck, which is undeniably a place where Marner can excel.
They’re to look for high tips on shots from the point, providing a difficult to defend layer for defenders. The D has to wonder, should I come out high to take the bumper’s stick away? Does a forward sag down? You make the PK make decisions – is that your guy or mine? - which is simply good offensive strategy.
The thing is, a great bumper player can do a couple other things: they can rip a one-timer off a quick short pass in from the wall (Brayden Point has gotten really good at this in Tampa Bay), which we’ve established isn’t a Marner strength. And they can crash down on the net for rebounds, getting into the muck and battling for body position, which also isn’t a strength of his.
More than that though, it doesn’t seem to utilize Marner’s playmaking abilities. That’s what makes him special, right? Yes he can make good quick-touch passes there, but he’s not going to make the type of fake-then-pass to a wide-open player that creates a grade-A chance. And he does that so well. Which brings me to the next option…
Up top
As a passer Marner is best when he’s “coming downhill.” Coming downhill is moving forwards towards the net as you’re looking for an opportunity. He’s not nearly as effective when he gets stationary, and worse when he starts to fade away.
One reason for this is that he will just hang on to the puck unless you force him to move it. That means if he’s coming downhill, he’s moving towards the net, and if you don’t go to him and defend, he’ll just take it all the way to the net, and that’s where he gets really dangerous. So coming downhill makes defenders leave their spots to go to him, which makes him more dangerous as a passer. Also, it makes his (and everyone’s) shot more dangerous – you’ve already got momentum going towards the net if you do decide to shoot.
If you put him at the point, he’s almost always going to be coming downhill, and now he’s able to distribute the puck in two directions, and he’s good at selling fakes. I also don’t think you need a bomb at the top if you’re good at shooting for sticks, and that’s a strength of his as well (he’s got a good shot-pass). Granted “a bomb at the top” would be nice, but it’s not mandatory.
Buuut … but do I want him at the point over Morgan Rielly, or Rasmus Sandin? Do you trust that the Leafs are going to give up fewer short-handed goals if he’s back there, or that he’ll create that much more just distributing the puck to one flank or the other? Last year the Leafs were second-worst in the NHL in terms of allowing shorties, giving up seven, which is one every eight games. (By contrast, the Islanders gave up … none.)
I can’t imagine it gets better with Marner defending rushes the other way. I can see how it could work, but it doesn’t make me super comfortable, let alone excited that something great would be unlocked.
Net-front/down-low
There’s a bit of a misconception that you need to be some bruiser to play net-front on the PP. But the instructions of the PK are usually quite explicitly “don’t get tied up in front,” so it’s not like even strength where guys are constantly trying to clean you out with cross-checks. You’re usually allowed to stand there up a man.
Playing net-front allows you to pop low for the flank guy, who can then get you pucks in a pretty dangerous area. I’m not thinking of a guy half-popping out the way JVR used to for the Leafs, which was to take what was more-or-less a direct pass then try to make a play at the net immediately.
Were it Marner, I’d like to see him pop down to about the bottom of the circle with his skates below the goal line but stick above it, where he could then make plays. He could look for the high tip slot guy, he could go back door to the opposite flank guy who’d be “coming downhill,” or he could take it to the net himself. He could also take it behind the net and out the other side, which would change the shape of the penalty kill and provide some pressure relief.
That all sounds good, but my first paragraph may have glossed over the undeniably higher physical demands when you’re actually parked on top of the crease. When shots come, defencemen then try to clear guys out and tie them up. Rebounds are a straight-up physical battle for space, and I don’t think you’re winning any of those with Marner there. I also don’t think he’s gonna be much help as a screener compared to the bigger bodies that typically inhabit that role.
So what’s the answer here?
The only way it all works in my brain is by being asking 16 to be extremely active, while … playing the flank. It’s that or he plays PP2, which isn’t out of the question here either. I just don’t think he’s an excellent PP tool, unfortunately, but he’s probably best there provided they don’t get stationary. He’s a creative playmaker that thrives in the swirling soup. Because he can’t shoot it, they can’t try to run a power play the way Tampa Bay does.
Keefe and crew like the phrase “replaceable parts” which is a holdover from the Babcock days, which basically means if you end up in a spot on the PP for a bit, they’re OK with that, stay there until there’s reason to move back. They should embrace that.
I think when the puck is on the opposite flank from Marner he should be coming really high in the zone, and taking passes from the point with his feet already heading towards the goal. The guy can “seam” a penalty kill as well as anyone, and he’s actually pretty good at slipping it into the slot for a quick rip when his movement makes a shot to the net a legitimate threat.
If he’s coming up high in the zone and taking passes with that downhill movement he may find himself as almost a second D-man at times (or the sole one, if Rielly/Sandin wanna flip as replaceable parts for a bit), which will provide him different looks and a new place to be dangerous from. At least it would keep the PK guessing.
Some power plays – I mentioned Tampa's, and Washington’s Ovi-bomb unit – are effective because they have players with skill sets uniquely built for the roles within the 1-3-1. Nikita Kucherov is probably the best power-play player in the league from the flank because he has that quick-cutter one-time shot that’s such a threat, but he’s just as likely to pass it. That ain’t Marner, and it ain’t the Leafs.
The Maple Leafs are loaded with offensive talent, and figuring out the best way to use it on the power play seems to be making them crazy, with Marner at the root.
Barring putting him on the second unit, the best way to get the most out of him is probably to keep doing what they’ve been doing, but just ask him to skate more and not get complacent from the flank position. Standing around is death, and the puck shouldn’t be dying on the stick of a player with so much ability to inject life into the offence.
