Markstrom, Vladar, Wolf: What will the Flames do with their goalies?

Of the many areas the Calgary Flames have to address this summer, getting their goaltending back on track ranks somewhere near the top of the list.

Season over season, no NHL team had a negative goaltending swing as large as Calgary’s in 2022-23. In the span of a year, the Flames went from boasting Vezina Trophy runner-up Jacob Markstrom and a fifth-ranked .913 team save percentage to the bottom third of the league at .889.

If Calgary wants to return to the playoffs next season, their goaltending needs to at least return to the middle of the pack. That fact is even more pronounced when you consider the combined $8.2 million Markstrom and tandem-mate Dan Vladar will be counting against the cap.

Will Markstrom bounce back?

Markstrom is coming off a miserable season and perhaps the most difficult of his NHL career. His .892 save percentage was his worst since becoming a full time NHLer in 2015-16 and ranked him 46^th of 56 goalies with 20 or more starts.

Flames fans found those numbers even harder to stomach considering Markstrom’s sparkling .922 the season prior en route to finishing second to eventual winner Igor Shesterkin in Vezina voting. And, per Evolving Hockey’s model, Markstrom went from 29.1 goals saved above replacement to just 2.1 from one season to the next.

Even after good nights or strong weeks, Calgary’s $6 million man was never able to even out his game last year.

“It’s been a battle for me personally to find my game and find my way and get on my roll,” Markstrom admitted at April’s locker clean-out day.

“You know, as a goalie it’s tough. You’re there and you want to find it, you know you have it and when it doesn’t show…you almost try too hard, if that makes sense. (You) tense up and you want it too much instead of just…go out and play and enjoy it and, you know, just trust it.”

The question now becomes: was 2022-23 just a down year for 33-year-old Markstrom? Or was it a sign of things to come?

The Flames are banking on the former and have some statistical backing. Excluding the last two seasons, his best and worst as an NHL starter, Markstrom averaged just over 50 starts and a .912 save percentage the four years prior. Many times, a goalie with an established body of work like that returns to those averages after a down year.

But then again, goaltending is anything but a perfect science.

“It’s a big summer for me,” Markstrom said. “I’m up for the challenge to get back where I want to be. I still feel like I have a ways to go and I can still improve from last year and obviously improve from this year.

“I feel like it’s right there and I just have to put in the work and come back and get ready.”

Who will be the backup?

Vladar has been Markstrom’s understudy the last two years and begins a new two-year deal next season that carries a $2.2 million AAV. In most circumstances, bringing back a 25-year-old goalie under team control with a palatable contract would be a no-brainer.

But two-time reigning American League Goaltender of the Year Dustin Wolf is making things a little more complicated for Calgary.

The 2019 seventh-round pick has posted a .928 save percentage in his first two AHL seasons and established himself as one of the best goaltending prospects anywhere. And, with seven shutouts and a .932 this past season, Wolf became the first goalie to be named AHL MVP in almost two decades.

Many believe it’s time for the Flames to make room for Wolf at the NHL level. One of the ways the team can affect change like that is by trading one of their more established goaltenders. Markstrom’s age, $6 million cap hit, and full no-movement clause make him more difficult to move and/or to get decent value.

Vladar feels like a different story. He’s younger, has a contract that’s easier to move, and doesn't have any trade protection. Plus, despite finishing this past season with an .895 save percentage, Vladar is still viewed by many as a goalie with plenty of potential.

Personally, I don’t think trading away an established goalie is the best move for Calgary…at least not right now. I wonder about a hybrid approach where Wolf gets NHL starts based on the team’s schedule while also starting games in the minors, like how Nashville approached things with Juuse Saros for a little while.

Going this route, even for a few months, would insulate Wolf if he’s not quite ready for the NHL immediately while also giving him a much-deserved reward. It’s also a more feasible approach considering the Flames and their AHL affiliate happen to share the same city.

But if Calgary isn’t interested in the potential headache of three goaltenders or is looking for cap relief, a trade involving a goaltender could very well be in the cards. Until we know what next year’s tandem (or trio) looks like, though, it’s hard to determine target workloads for any of the goalies in question.

What we do know is how crucial significant improvement in net will be next season. The Flames don’t need to be winning the Jennings or Vezina, but they also can’t be ranked in the high 20’s at the position if a return to the playoffs is going to be realistic.