Midseason review: Canadiens' improbable climb makes second half more meaningful

BROSSARD, Que. — In. The. Mix.

Before the season started, we thought the Montreal Canadiens would be there.

But after watching them all but torpedo their chances through the first quarter, it was unimaginable they’d wake up in a playoff spot nearing the end of their second one.

That’s where the Canadiens found themselves on Tuesday morning, hours after beating the Vancouver Canucks for their eighth win in their last 10 games. It was also their 11^th win in their last 16, and it gave them a 12-8-1 record over their last 21.

That’s 11^th-best in the NHL over that time.

The Canadiens also had the ninth-best goals-per-game average through that stretch, the ninth-best penalty kill and ran the 14^th-best power play.

The team still gave up the 14^th-most goals per game on average, but that was a big improvement from giving up the sixth most through their first 19.

So… What changed?

Pretty much everything.

But the first thing was a mentality shift, with Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis insisting on a more conservative approach to playing.

From there, the Canadiens began building the template that would see them beat themselves less and they began to gain rhythm right as Patrik Laine was nearing full health.

His insertion into the lineup on Dec. 3 coincided with a five-game homestand and immediately spiked an already-effective power play.

On that night, against the New York Islanders, the Big Finn scored the first of eight power-play goals he’d notch over his first nine games in a Canadiens uniform.

So, that helped.

But his mere presence also helped balance out the Canadiens’ forward group and stimulated a four-line wave that carried them through the most challenging portion of their schedule — a condensed five-game, post-Christmas road trip featuring play against the last four Stanley Cup champions in four different time zones — over which they went 4-1.

Three games before that crazy trek began, general manager Kent Hughes traded Justin Barron to the Nashville Predators for Alex Carrier and stabilized the Canadiens’ defence.

In net, Cayden Primeau watched Samuel Montembeault play 10 straight games before being waived and sent to Laval in favour of Jakub Dobes, who made his NHL debut by shutting out the Panthers on Dec. 28.

The 23-year-old Czech appears to have given the Canadiens a strong one-two punch, bolstering confidence he can excel at this level with his performance in a 2-1 shootout win over the Colorado Avalanche on Jan 4.

It isn’t just the goaltending that’s inspired confidence for the Canadiens. And that confidence wouldn’t be where it’s at without the results vastly improving.

But the Canadiens deserving to win the games they’ve won — especially the ones where they were playing against teams most people would consider to be the best in the league — has bolstered their self-belief and bought them completely into the identity St. Louis has carved out for them.

As for where that takes the Canadiens over the second half, we can’t say for sure.

We believe the Canadiens will remain in the mix, but they have a long way to go to convince us — and everyone else — that they’re much more like the team we saw over the second quarter than the one we saw through the first.

As Hughes said on Wednesday, the most revealing stretch still lies ahead.

“We have 22 games before the trade deadline, we still have a lot to learn,” he started. “We’re happy we’re playing much better than we were at the beginning of the season, but we’ve played 40 games and we’re one game over .500. So I don’t want to celebrate, either. We haven’t accomplished anything yet.”

Can the team make the playoffs?

“Whether we can be a playoff team or not, we’re in that conversation right now,” Hughes said. “Let’s see how our players respond to it.”

KEY STATS

Record: 19-18-3 (5^th in the Atlantic Division, 21^st in NHL)

Goals per game: 3 (17^th in NHL)

Goals against per game: 3.38 (sixth-most in NHL)

Power play: 22.1 per cent (17^th in NHL)

Penalty kill: 82 per cent (11^th in NHL)

BEST SURPRISE:

Jake Evans is an easy pick.

Not that we should be surprised by his reliability and leadership — which has been entrenched over a couple of seasons — but we certainly didn’t have the 28-year-old scoring 10 goals and 23 points through the first 40 games of this one.

Those totals put Evans three goals and six points away from matching career highs established over 72 games in 2021-22 and have him standing by an open cash register in a contract year.

Good for him.

Good for the Canadiens, too, who have depended on Evans to be their Swiss Army Knife this season.

No forward in the league plays more on the penalty kill and only Sam Reinhart has more shorthanded goals. And Evans’ performance at five-on-five has helped drive what’s arguably been the most effective fourth line in the league (with Joel Armia and Emil Heineman).

It is the highest-scoring one, with 27 goals between all three players.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT:

It would have to be Kirby Dach if we’re looking at the entire first half of the season.

Coming off two torn knee ligaments that limited him to under five periods of action last season, we knew Dach would take time to get his game back. But it taking 30 games for him to show any real signs of redeeming it was disappointing.

Has Dach turned the corner in scoring four goals and five points and being only minus-2 over his last 10? It appears that way.

But given that he only put up two goals and nine points and was a minus-21 through the first 30 games, he still has several steps to take to convince people he’s going to be the player the Canadiens need him to be moving forward.

BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF: Can the Canadiens remain in the mix all the way through?

They’ve built up the expectations, but now they must live up to them.

Not that they need to go through each of the remaining segments winning eight of every 10.

No one expects that, nor should they — especially with the NHL’s top-ranked Vegas Golden Knights winning 70 per cent of their first 40 games.

But it’s reasonable to expect the Canadiens can stick to the identity they’ve formed and give themselves a chance to win more games than they lose.

That’s their focus, and that’s what it should be, according to St. Louis.

“I don’t think the games are about to get harder, I think the games are (already) pretty hard,” the coach said after Thursday’s practice. “I think where we put ourselves right now, the meaning of the games become more important, I guess, because of where we put ourselves this past month, and there’s more responsibility, I guess.

“But you can’t worry about where you are and who’s doing this and who’s doing that and start watching the standings. We have half a season left, we just need to focus on what makes us successful and can we repeat that? Whether we win or lose, can we turn the page and go to work and earn it again? And that’s our focus.”

If the Canadiens can maintain it, that’ll keep them in the mix.

If they build on it, they could be looking at their first playoff berth since 2021.

We thought it was possible before the season started, but it appeared unfathomable 21 games ago.

Let’s see what the next 42 brings.