Now that the Montreal Canadiens have defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games (sorry, Leafs fans), the final second-round matchup of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs is set. And as their reward, the Habs will face off against the rested Winnipeg Jets for the right to play the winner of the series between the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights.
If you’re ready to place a wager on a Habs-Jets series winner or dabble in a player prop, you’ve come to the right place. Below is the breakdown of the North Division final with the latest lines. I also mixed in a value pick and gave out a big underdog selection to (hopefully) lead this series in goals.
(All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current at time of publication.)
No. 3 Winnipeg Jets vs. No. 4 Montreal Canadiens
These teams have never met in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Winnipeg is trying to advance to round three for the first time since 2018, while Montreal is looking to win a second-round series for the first time since 2015.
SERIES WINNER ODDS: Montreal -103, Winnipeg -135
HEAD TO HEAD: Winnipeg was 6-3-0 in the season series and outscored Montreal 31-28.
KEY INJURIES:
Montreal: Jon Merrill, day-to-day (undisclosed injury), Artturi Lehkonen, day-to-day (upper-body injury)
Winnipeg: No significant injuries
WHY YOU TAKE THE JETS AT -135: The Jets are well rested and coming off that shocking four-game sweep of the Edmonton Oilers. Winnipeg held Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to just three goals and six assists combined after the pair notched 14 goals and 20 assists in nine games against them during the regular season.
What’s more, Connor Hellebuyck looked every bit the 2020 Vezina Trophy winner in round one. Winnipeg’s No. 1 goaltender posted a 1.60 GAA with a .950 SV% and one shutout in the opening round.
There is no question that the Jets are deep up front, and Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers scored 10 goals and nine assists combined against Montreal this season. Winnipeg’s power play could be the key to this series. The Jets operated at 30% in round one against Edmonton with the man advantage and had the NHL’s seventh-best power play during the regular season.
WHY YOU TAKE THE CANADIENS AT -104: Carey Price, anyone? Montreal’s franchise netminder was rock solid in round one against the Maple Leafs. Price had a 2.24 GAA and a .932 SV% against Toronto. That said, he did struggle this season against the Jets. The 2015 Hart Memorial Trophy winner was a mediocre 2-1-1 with a 3.01 GAA and .903 SV% against Winnipeg in 2021.
If the Habs get more from Tyler Toffoli, who led the Canadiens with five points (two goals, three assists) versus Toronto, they’ve got a shot to move into the final four. Toffoli notched six goals and chipped in with three assists in nine games against the Jets.
The Canadiens have the No. 1 penalty-kill unit in these playoffs and will need to shut down Winnipeg’s explosive power play to advance in this series.
MY PICK: I think Winnipeg’s scoring punch up front will be too much for Montreal to overcome — despite the presence of Price. I think there is a ton of value in taking the Jets to win this series 4–2 at +442.
PLAYER PROPS TO WATCH: Sticking with the theme of Winnipeg’s scoring depth up front, what about taking a long look at Paul Stastny as an underdog play to lead this series in goals? Stastny scored five goals in nine games against Montreal this season and had plenty of chances — the 35-year-old had 24 shots on goal for an average of 2.7 per game.
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