We've been looking forward to the 2023 draft for a while, and now it's here right on our door step.
What has come to be known as the "Connor Bedard Draft" for the runaway top prospect and generational talent at the top of the class, we could look back at this year to find several great choices who changed the course of a franchise. But how deep, really, is this pool of players?
That's one question we've put to our two draft experts, Jason Bukala and Sam Cosentino, who've been tracking these players for quite some time and ranking them throughout this season. With the draft just around the corner now, we asked them three questions about the nature of this draft:
At which pick does the draft really start, and why?
Bukala: It depends how you look at things. I’m of the belief some teams have Adam Fantilli slotted No 2 on their list, while others have Leo Carlsson at No. 2. When one of these two players are selected it will immediately have an effect on another team's list and how they have slotted prospects. It’s for that reason I believe the draft starts at the second overall pick. I won’t be the least bit surprised to hear about possible trade up and trade down offers being thrown around in the build up to that pick.
My “line in the sand” moment, however, will occur when Montreal steps to the podium to make their selection, right now at No. 5. I believe Matvei Michkov will be staring at them. Do they have enough confidence in his timeline and commitment to come to the NHL after meeting with him before the draft? If they do call his name at No. 5, the trickle-down effect will be immediate. Teams will, again, be adjusting their lists and strategizing what to do next. With names like Ryan Leonard, Will Smith, David Reinbacher, Zach Benson, and Colby Barlow available for top 10 consideration it will be fascinating to see who steps up to take Michkov if Montreal passes, and how his name coming off the board will impact the rest of the first round.
Cosentino: The draft starts at pick five. There are a number of people who believe Montreal may be in the mix for Michkov. I don’t see it that way, but I suppose anything is possible, and under the Kent Hughes/Jeff Gorton regime Montreal is very open-minded. I think the Canadiens would love to move up one spot, and hope Anaheim and Columbus take Fantilli and Carlsson so they can nab Will Smith. Having said that, if the Canadiens keep the fifth pick and don’t go with Michkov, I believe there are two options: The first is David Reinbacher, the Austrian defenceman. He’s likely two years away, and that timeline fits Montreal’s organizational plan. Ryan Leonard would be the next option. He has some Brendan Gallagher in him, and that type of heart and soul is welcomed in any NHL dressing room.
What are the chances, and what might have to happen, for a goalie to be selected in the first round, and who could that player be?
Bukala: I have Michael Hrabal slotted No. 33 on my draft list. He’s hovering around the first round. If a team is going to step up and draft a goalie in the first round, I believe it will be a club that has multiple picks and are willing to take on the risk of selecting a goalie. Let’s not forget goalies take longer to develop than skaters. Historically, most goalies don’t make their full-time NHL debuts until they are nearing the end of their three-year entry-level contract. Teams have to be patient developing goaltenders.
With that in mind, I’m curious to see how St. Louis strategizes their three first-round picks (10, 25, 29). Do they attempt to move up or sit tight? If they elect to sit tight it wouldn’t surprise me to see them select a goalie with the 29th overall pick. Another team that might entertain drafting a goalie is Montreal, who owns pick No. 31. The Habs don’t have a great deal of depth between the pipes.
Cosentino: There’s a good chance we see a goalie go in round one. We have eight teams with multiple first round picks. Typically, the first pick is reserved for BPA (best player available), while the second pick can be used more freely on a player who either comes with more risk or addresses a positional need. Hrabal is the guy I see going first. His numbers in the USHL (9-13-4, 2.86 GAA, .908 SV%) were decent considering he played on a mediocre Omaha team. He also played for Czechia at the U18s and finished with a .920 save percentage despite going 1-4. At 6-foot-6, 209 pounds, he fits the height requirement. Lastly, he’s committed to UMass, meaning he could conceivably develop for four more seasons before signing, which fits the typical goalie timeline.
I think most people who have followed my draft coverage know that I’m not a fan of taking a goalie in the first round, but I’m lenient when a team has multiple picks. St. Louis has three firsts, so I could see the Blues going down the Hrabal road.
The 2023 draft has long been regarded as one deep in skill, but is that actually the case or was it overblown? How deep is this draft compared to others, really, and what impact could that have on trades and selections?
Bukala: When building out my list I found the process increasingly more challenging from the middle of the second round and beyond. It speaks to the depth of the draft class. Some analysts and scouts have debated the actual depth of this class. I feel differently. I would be excited to add prospects like Maxim Strbak (Team Slovakia/Sioux Falls USHL), Easton Cowan (London OHL), Paul Fischer (USNTDP), and Quinton Burns (Kingston OHL) in rounds two and three.
It’s my belief that teams will value their picks in the back half of this draft more than some others in the past. Organizations who hit on players from the third round and beyond provide the team more flexibility coordinating the roster within the constraints of the salary cap. The number of picks traded will have more to do with a team being flush with draft capital – Nashville has 10 picks in the first four rounds – wanting to aggressively targeting a prospect and be willing to potentially overpay to move up in the draft by cashing in some of their capital.
Cosentino: This draft is deep. And while the high-end skill comes on the smallish side, it’s still high-end overall. People always remember a draft that features a generational-type player and the 2023 edition will always be remembered as the Connor Bedard draft. But I think either Carlsson or Fantilli would’ve been in the first overall conversation in any of the past three drafts (Lafreniere, 2020, Power, 2021, Slafkovsky, 2022).
Draft depth is dependent on breadth of talent. Take the Swedes for example. A number of Swedish-born players have emerged in the top 32 conversation and we could see as many as six Swedes go in round one. There's also really good talent coming out of Russia, beginning with Michkov. There’s likely three other Russians who will be taken in round one. Admittedly, it’s a bit of a down year in Finland, but we will see a number of Finns go in rounds two and three who we will be talking about years down the road. We have a Slovak, a Czech and an Austrian all as potential top 16 picks, and we haven’t discussed North Americans yet.
The USNTDP has five projected first rounders. The WHL will be the strongest of the three CHL leagues, with at least five potential top 32 picks. Ontario is starting to get back on track after missing a year due to the pandemic, while the QMJHL talent may not be as prevalent on day one of the draft, but we will see a number of players taken from the 'Q' on day two.
Keep in mind, the toughest positions to develop are goalie and defence. Everyone in this draft class was impacted by the pandemic and, at those two positions in particular, the development has been stunted. The typical developmental track is three-to-five years, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a number of goalies and defencemen emerge a year later than normal once they get on to an NHL-guided track, in order to make up for lost time.
Every year we anticipate a number of trades at the draft, which are mostly driven by the salary cap, and we have a number of big ticket players who teams want to move this summer. We also know that draft pick compensation to take on money is very popular in today’s NHL (Arizona). If there are a number of trades and deals, they will be driven by the salary cap.
I do expect teams that don't have a first-round pick to try and get one, but the cost will be higher than normal. I also see a few teams trying to move up the board, but again, the cost will be high. If anything, in terms of moving in this draft, look for it to happen in the first 12-15 picks. I say this because I think there are three high-end defencemen (Reinbacher, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, and Tom Willander) who teams will covet, and none of them will get past pick 15.
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